NSW Health Pathology CEO: Patient empowerment, AI, Big Data are trends to watch in healthcare
NSW Health Pathology CEO: Patient empowerment, AI, Big Data are trends to watch in healthcare
NSW Health Pathology CEO: Patient empowerment, AI, Big Data are trends to watch in healthcare
In this VISION by Protiviti podcast, we welcome Vanessa Janissen, CEO of New South Wales Health Pathology, where she leads Australia’s largest public pathology and forensic science service. Employing more than 5,000 people, NSW Health Pathology performs over 100,000 clinical and scientific investigations each day across 60 laboratories and more than 150 collection centers. Janissen is interviewed by Ruby Chen, a Director with Protiviti Australia.
In this interview:
1:05 – The digital agenda: Balancing patient privacy with data security
5:01 – The challenges of an aging demographic
8:05 – Strategies for employee wellbeing
13:10 – Pathology’s role in cancer care
18:38 – Emerging trends: Aging, AI, data analytics
Vanessa Janissen is the CEO of NSW Health Pathology where she leads Australia’s largest public pathology and forensic science service. Employing more than 5,000 people, NSW Health Pathology performs over 100,000 clinical and scientific investigations each day across 60 laboratories and 150-plus collection centres. She’s spent over 25 years in healthcare, both in public and private settings, with a deep commitment to serving the community and the strategic pursuit of better outcomes for people. She is also passionate about growing and developing future leaders, particularly championing and supporting women in leadership positions. Previously, Vanessa held a number of leadership positions at Calvary Healthcare, most recently as the National Director, Strategy and Service Development, leading their strategic growth across hospital, aged care, community and virtual care services.
Ruby Chen is a Protiviti director with over 12 years of experience in the financial services industry, for 10 of which she worked within the Big Four banks before transitioning into consulting. She has a broad range of experience providing advisory services and secondments across all three lines of defense.
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Anglicare Sydney CEO on AI, housing and critical issues facing governments
Anglicare Sydney CEO on AI, housing and critical issues facing governments
Anglicare Sydney CEO on AI, housing and critical issues facing governments
In this VISION by Protiviti interview, Simon Miller, CEO of Anglicare Sydney, a nonprofit organization that offers services for seniors, families and individuals in need, from food and housing to mental health and family care, sits down with Protiviti’s Leslie Howatt, a managing director and the firm’s Technology Consulting solution lead in Australia, to discuss Miller’s work as the CEO of an NGO, AI use cases in government, the future of public housing, and how government can more effectively work with the social sector to deliver outcomes.
In this interview:
2:43 – The five biggest challenges facing governments
4:55 – Using AI to deal with policy challenges
8:28 – Interfacing with the social sector on housing, aging, food and mental health
14:30 – A more community-minded future
Anglicare Sydney CEO on AI, housing and critical issues facing governments
Joe Kornik: Welcome to the VISION by Protiviti interview. I'm Joe Kornik, Editor-in-Chief of VISION by Protiviti, a global content resource examining big themes that will impact the C-suite and executive boardrooms worldwide. Today, we’re exploring the future of government, and I'm thrilled to welcome Simon Miller, CEO of Anglicare Sydney, a nonprofit organization that offers services for seniors, families, and individuals in need from food and housing to mental health and family care. I'm happy to turnover the interviewing today to my Protiviti colleague, Leslie Howatt, managing director and the firm’s Technology Consulting solution Australia lead. Leslie, thanks so much for joining me today.
Leslie Howatt: Thanks, Joe. Great to be here and I'm delighted to have Simon, you here with me today. Thank you so much for joining us.
Simon Miller: My pleasure to be here, Leslie. Thank you.
Howatt: You have such a unique background as a CEO of an NGO, former management consultant for 15 years and more than a decade in the New South Wales government. How do you think those experiences come together to help shape the work you currently do as a CEO of a not-for-profit providing age care, retirement living, social housing, and community services to over a hundred thousand people across Greater Sydney and the Illawarra?
Miller: It’s interesting because I’ve had the privilege of working across really all three different sectors. I’ve worked across the public sector. I’ve worked across the private sector and now, in the for-purpose sector. And I think what that does is it gives me the capacity to view problems from different perspectives, to understand how different stakeholders think about things. One of the things with being a CEO of a not-for-profit is there is so much that we have to do in working with other sectors and so, actually, being able to speak their language, understand the challenges that they are working on to be able to bring a whole range of different skill sets around public policy and advocacy, around commercial analysis, around technology and be able to meet those together I think is a really useful perspective that I'm able to bring and contribute to the sector, hopefully, to the development of the sector and some of the things that we’re trying to do as an organization and indeed as a society here in Australia.
Howatt: So, given that, what do you see are the biggest challenges facing governments both in Australia or beyond right now?
Miller: Yes. Look, I think there are five really big themes that governments are grappling with. I think the first one is clearly cost of living, the sticky inflation. Governments and central banks are trying to deal with managing economic growth along with the price pressures and they’re struggling with that. They haven’t really had to do since the 1970s. Well, this is different from the 1970s as well so this is almost a unique challenge around cost of living. What’s that leading to, it’s leading to what I call the rise of disillusionment. There’s disillusionment amongst the population. You see this showing up in populism and extremism. You see it coming up with the challenges from social media. I think the third thing is energy transition. There’s never been a global crisis quite like that of climate change and the energy transition is feeding into all of these. It sorts of feeding into a hopelessness which leads to populism, it’s feeding into the cost-of-living pressures through the rise of renewables, but it’s a really, really serious issue that government is trying to grapple with. They know they have to do it but there’s a lot of pushback from the populists because it’s expensive. And then I think housing, the availability of housing, the cost of housing. You’re seeing rents at unaffordable levels across at the least most of the Western world. You’re seeing dislocations in the housing market in places like China and so there’s a really significant challenge around the housing right at the moment and that’s not just in Western democracies. It’s right across the globe. I think the last one is AI and technology and governments working out, “What do we do with artificial intelligence? How do we manage them? How do we use it?”
Howatt: So, let’s pick up on that last point. In your consulting days, you built and led an artificial intelligence and advanced analytics business across Asia-Pacific, growing it from scratch to hundreds of data scientists and engineers. How do you think government can use AI to deal with living policy challenges?
Miller: Look, I'm genuinely quite excited about AI and what it can be used for in public policy. So, I think there’s just an enormous number of use cases and so let me give you an example. I heard recently about people starting to use large language models to do real time coaching in call centers. So, you can have the AI model listening essentially to the call and provide prompts. So, it’s not just, “We’re going to record this call for later. We can actually give you real-time feedback on how you’re doing and real-time access to information.” So, it’s going to improve experience. I think there’s opportunities for automated approvals, automated regulatory approvals. For instance, planning approvals, interpretations of laws and policies, I think is a really interesting area. I was talking to a large Asia-Pacific bank just a week ago and they were saying they’re now running an AI across all of their policies and all of their terms and conditions and it means that customer queries to bankers, 90% of them can now be answered live without people needing to go back and try to ask experts. AI can actually do that and, again, speed things up, makes it more efficient. Governments can do that same thing with laws and policies.
Airlines and logistics companies have been using AI to help with optimization and scheduling disruption management, and governments are now starting to think about how do we use that in say public transport networks or road networks and so that creates improvements and experience of lives of citizens. We are using at my organization AI to actually automate recruitment in terms of resume screenings, in terms of asynchronous video interviews. Well, government hires thousands of people and so the capacity to be able to find the right people, find them fast, takes a lot of the pressure and friction out of the recruitment process, again, it’s going to improve public policy.
I think the used cases are absolutely endless. The only thing that’s going to limit it, really, is the imagination, government can be quite risk-averse and needs to be risk-averse because it’s actually dealing with balancing quite difficult public conversations and trying to manage the interaction with the population. So, risk aversion and imagination, and on the other hand, their willingness to invest. I think the public investment we require will be substantial but the payoffs, particularly as government revenues fall and we have a demographic pressure of an aging population, I think the payoffs for the government will be enormous from the application of AI, right across almost any area you can imagine in public policy.
Howatt: Let’s talk a little bit about your current role as the CEO of Anglicare. What are some of the big issues that you’re dealing with in that sector and how can government more effectively work with the social sector to deliver better outcomes?
Miller: There’s really four things that I’m particularly concerned about that we are working on. I think there’s the question of aging and ageism. Our population is significantly aging across most of the Western world, indeed across most of the world, we have an aging population and there’s a need for government to help foster more healthy approach to aging. There is some research out of Yale that suggest that the way you think about aging actually impacts really significantly how healthy you are as you get older. You can have more years of being well as a result of thinking more positively about aging. And so I think there’s a role for not-for-profits and governments to really think about, how do we age well as a society? So, let’s not just make aging a clinical thing, something that is about a loss of capacity but how do we celebrate, how do we embrace aging, how do we actually help well-being to be a feature of how we all grow older and that’s one of the things that we’re trying to grapple with in terms of building communities for older people that are healthy and thriving and flourishing that are not just about medical care but are about community, that are about hospitality, that are about social connection.
The second thing that we really focus on is the housing crisis. Anglicare is a significant housing provider and it’s an area that we focus our growth in because we see this as really being the great kind of social challenge of our time. Because without good housing, you lose social cohesion and I think that that’s an enormous challenge to our society. So, that’s an area that requires government investment, government regulation, government support. It’s something that simply doesn’t happen because if it was something the private would just do on its own, we wouldn’t need to worry about it but it’s clearly a huge problem.
The third case is food and security. This is a big challenge, cost of living and food insecurity, huge challenge across the Western world. Certainly in Australia, where I am, food insecurity is an enormous challenge for us and how do we work on distribution, how do we work on subsidizing that, how do we work on building capacity requirement.
I think the last one that we’re significantly working on is around mental health, just the increase in the number of mental health challenges in community, particularly for both young people and for older people. The group in society that has the highest rate of suicide is men over 85. It’s not the largest number but it’s the highest rate and so mental health challenges for both teenagers and for seniors are an area that we are partnering with government to really invest in counselling, in psychology, in support. They are big challenges that we need to face into as an organization, having partnership with government.
Howatt: That’s quite amazing. That’s a stat that I had never heard before but having an aged father, I can kind of understand how that might come about. So, for my last couple of questions, I want you to look out five years or so, maybe to 2030, what do you envision for the future of housing, specifically social housing and community services to support Australia’s aging population?
Miller: One of the biggest challenges with housing is around supply. We just need more housing. But of course, it’s not just a case of building more because land is expensive. Regulatory approvals are expensive. Construction is expensive, and so people, developers, even Anglicare, we need to make a return on the money that we invest in building housing. So, one of the things that I see in the next decade, five to 10 years, is government stripping away some of those regulatory costs, make it really easy for people to build if they build following a certain design standard. I see technology playing a significant role into the things like prefabrication, things like automation, offsite manufacturing, the reduction of the cost of [Unintelligible] architecture, of project management, of engineering. I think AI, in particular, can play a role in those spaces. Then, of course, the lifecycle cost of housing around energy, heating, cooling management and there’s an estimation that actually, at least in high-rise buildings, those lifecycle costs can be half the net person cost of the building. So, they’re really, really significant particularly for people on low incomes.
So, I see really a quite exciting world where government regulation, where technology, and where really smart design in the next five years can dramatically lower some of those costs and enable developers to make good returns but at significantly lower costs and so you get a win-win. You get developers still making the money that they need to be able to put their money at risk but you see people on lower incomes, on minimum wages, on income support actually able to afford it because we’ve changed the way that we deliver housing. So, that’s something I see us being quite exciting over the next five years and I’m hopeful that organizations like mine can actually play a role in saying, “You know, we’re going to take a risk. We’re going to do some things a little bit differently than we’ve traditionally done because we can and because we can,” sort of show the way and so I’d like us to be the innovative organization. But these things are going to really transform the way we do the housing, I think.
Howatt: Amazing. Finally, then, the same question but about the future of government in the delivery of services. Based on everything we’ve talked about today, how optimistic are you that we’ll get this right and what do you see for 2030?
Miller: Look, I think I’m ultimately an optimist and I think the reason I’m an optimist in terms of public policy and getting this right is, what I see when I look at millennials and Gen Z and then the generations coming after them is that they are much more publicly minded and I think these things like climate change that have led them to taking a different, more positive, more community-minded approach. So, I think that by 2030, the millennials and Gen Z are going to be a really significant part of the voting population. So, they’re going to demand it from government and governments tend to respond to voters, one way or another, and so I’m actually really optimistic that their attitude will actually translate into government action.
Howatt: Thanks, Simon. We really appreciate you taking the time to spend with us today and for your amazing insights. That was so helpful and I learned a lot and, hopefully, others do too.
Miller: Fantastic. Thank you.
Howatt: Now, back to you, Joe.
Kornik: Thanks, Leslie. Thank you for joining the VISION by Protiviti interview today. On behalf of Leslie and Simon, I’m Joe Kornik. I’ll see you next time.
Simon Miller is the CEO of Anglicare Sydney, a nonprofit organization that offers services for seniors, families and individuals in need, from food and housing to mental health and family care. Prior to joining Anglicare, Simon was a Managing Director and Senior Partner at The Boston Consulting Group with over 14 years’ experience in advising the boards, CEOs and executives of Australia’s top companies on strategy, growth, digital transformation, advanced analytics, and mergers and acquisitions. In previous roles he was First Assistant Secretary at the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, Deputy Director-General at the Department of Water and Energy, Policy Director to the Premier of New South Wales and Chief of Staff to the Treasurer of New South Wales.
Leslie Howatt is a managing director and Protiviti’s technology consulting solution lead in Australia. She specializes in digital and technology strategy as well as transformational change, and boasts over 25 years’ experience across consulting, industry, and government sectors. She has extensive experience designing and delivering large-scale change initiatives across organizations in Australia, New Zealand, Asia and North America. Leslie's industry experience spans financial services, transport & aviation, energy & utilities, consumer products & retail, and telecommunications. She is a champion for diversity and inclusion.
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AIR's Jo Ann Barefoot on AI, automation and the future of financial regulation
AIR's Jo Ann Barefoot on AI, automation and the future of financial regulation
AIR's Jo Ann Barefoot on AI, automation and the future of financial regulation
In this VISION by Protiviti Interview, we welcome Jo Ann Barefoot, CEO & Co-founder, Alliance for Innovative Regulation (or AIR), a nonprofit organization working globally to promote a more fair, inclusive and resilient financial system by helping adapt financial regulation for the digital age. Barefoot, who hosts the global podcast Barefoot Innovation and is a Senior Fellow Emerita at the Harvard Kennedy School Center for Business & Government, discusses AIR, digitization, AI and the future of regtech.
In this interview:
1:40 - Regulation and technology converging
3:47 - The future of financial regulation is AI
6:20 - Tools and talent
9:11 - Where customers benefit
12:24 - Envisioning regtech in 2030
AIR's Jo Ann Barefoot on AI, automation and the future of financial regulation
Joe Kornik: Welcome to the VISION by Protiviti interview. I’m Joe Kornik, Editor-in-Chief of VISION by Protiviti, a global content resource examining big themes that will impact the C-Suite and executive boardrooms worldwide. Today, we’re exploring the future of government and I’m thrilled to be joined by Jo Ann Barefoot, CEO and co-founder of the Alliance for Innovative Regulation, or AIR, a nonprofit organization working globally to promote a more fair, inclusive, and resilient financial system by helping adapt financial regulation for the digital age. She hosts the global podcast, Barefoot Innovation, and is a Senior Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School Center for Business and Government. She serves on multiple global boards and advisory bodies and is a renowned public speaker and author, having published more than 200 articles on innovation and regulation. Jo Ann, thank you so much for joining me today.
Jo Ann Barefoot: I’m delighted to be here. Thank you.
Kornik: So, Jo Ann, it’s been about five years since you launched AIR, the Alliance for Innovative Regulation, as I mentioned in the intro. Could you tell us a little bit about AIR and then how you would assess the first five years and maybe what do you see are some of the biggest challenges and opportunities of the next five?
Barefoot: Yes, I’m happy to do so. Yes, we have just passed our fifth anniversary at AIR. We are a nonprofit. We are based in the United States but active around the world and really, the idea for it came out of the bat. I’m a former bank regulator myself, begin immersing in how technology is changing the world, including finance, and reached sort of an epiphany that it’s going to be hard to regulate change at this speed and this wall breaking nature unless we really step up the focus on the regulatory process itself. We work to help regulators, financial regulators, both use technology themselves and understand the technology they’re overseeing in the marketplace. The challenges going forward are that everything is speeding up and becoming even more wall breaking and we think it’s like race against time to keep pace with the change.
Kornik: Right. I love the name because innovation and regulation are just two words that you don’t often hear together. They are often sort of opposites.
Barefoot: Yes.
Kornik: I’ll start up by asking you about your views on the future of regulation, just particularly in the financial sector.
Barefoot: If we look at the financial sector, it is changing as much as anything else around us in terms of technology, digitization, tokenization, all the trends that we’re living with, and it really matters. It’s an area where if it doesn’t work well, people get hurt and therefore it’s pervasively regulated maybe more than any other sector. The big changes, I think, and you won’t be surprised to hear me say this, are going to be dominated by artificial intelligence. The advent of generative AI, a year and a half ago, is like nothing we’ve ever seen before in terms of hitting everyone’s desk at the same time in just a few months and making everyone rethink what they are doing. So, the big trends are going to be really keeping up with that change, deploying it, and also properly regulating it so that we get the benefits of new ways of doing things but we deal with the risks, which are very, very real.
Kornik: Right. Since you brought up generative AI, let’s stay on that topic for a few more minutes. I’m curious about it’s ultimate impact. I know there was a recent AIR white paper that asked if AI is transforming the future or triggering fear or perhaps a little bit of both. How concerned are you about that generative AI future and how do we make sure it’s actually a force for good and not the other way around?
Barefoot: Yes. We definitely think it’s a double-edged sword, very dangerous for sure. There’s risks that AI and generative AI specifically is going to introduce bias into the system. We have the challenges of so called explainability, why is the AI does doing what it’s doing or recommending what it’s suggesting. We’ve got problems with data quality. We’ve got problems with model risk management. We’ve got problems with privacy. We’ve got problems with AI’s hallucinating. I mean, we don’t minimize the risks of it all, but having said that, we think the upside opportunity is huge and we have to harness it. If we put that in the framework of thinking about financial regulation, when you have a problem that at its heart is about the difficulty of not getting enough information and analyzing it or keeping up with the dynamic environment, those are the situations that AI is perfect for solving. Particularly generative AI, the ability to search large language models. If we have the time, I could give you so many examples where the way we do things today is hampered because we don’t have enough information in hand; it’s in analog form. People are doing manual data entry, I mean, regulators are doing it, risk managers and compliance people are doing it. Everyone is dealing with fragments of information in a system that’s huge and changing at a breathtaking rate and we need to harness these tools to understand what’s going on in them and get hold of that.
Kornik: Right. Are the tools in place? Do the regulators have the tools right now to protect the system and ultimately make it more resilient, inclusive, and fair? How do you balance the need for those guardrails without stifling innovation?
Barefoot: Yes. The regulators, with a few exceptions, do not have the tools now. One of the things we really advocate for, and it might sound nerdy and not interesting but it’s essential, is that the regulators have to overhaul their own technology. Not just adopt some different tools but go back and redesign their information architecture and their talent lineup. They’ve got great people who understand risks in the system but those people, the colleagues who understand technology, they need software engineers and designers. So, attracting and retaining talent, working on culture change. We are putting out a white paper on this shortly by my colleague Nick Cook, who used to head Innovation at the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK which we’re calling Regulators’ Odyssey. They need completely different tools they need to invest, and they all need to, for one thing, migrate to the cloud, which will take a little while but really has to be done.
Kornik: Right. That’s interesting also and I keep an eye out for that. So, I was listening to your Barefoot Innovation podcast, which is excellent by the way. Recently you had Elizabeth Kelly, Special Assistant to the President for Economic Policy at the White House National Economic Council, and I know she was key in drafting the Executive Order on AI by President Biden. So, I’ll ask you, do you think that the U.S. is doing enough? Do we have the right resources and focus pointed at the problem?
Barefoot: The U.S. is doing a great deal and the Executive Order led to learning and innovation really throughout the government. We are not as far along as some other places in thinking through policy toward AI and some would say that was a bad thing, some would say it’s a good thing. We’re going to need to learn to create more dynamic policy change mechanisms because whatever is adopted today on AI is going to be out of date before long because the tech itself is changing so rapidly and so are the use cases. But I would like to see the U.S. really think through a consistent set of principles for regulation of AI and be ready to put that out. I’ll mention another thing that we think is really important. At AIR, we look a lot at consumer finance, consumer protection, and financial inclusion. We think that one of the things that deserves a thought from policymakers and from the private sector is the potential for consumers, financial consumers, to have their own agents for helping them manage their financial lives. Call it a robot, call it an agent. Gartner has called this phenomenon “Custobots,” the AI devices that are going to be able to make decisions. Financial consumers don’t have enough information either and they don’t have, on average, the knowledge to fully understand the financial products that they’re looking at. If we can encourage development of AI assistants for the financial consumer who can help her pay her bills, do her budget, evaluate financial products, see through offers that may have hidden fees or terms that would be adverse to her, manage to meet her own preferences and priorities as she’s saving and trying to build wealth. If we had these and they were affordable for everyone and that was a business model that could support them, and if they were regulated to have to have a duty of care to the individual or a fiduciary duty with no secondary agenda, we could transform consumer financial markets and really reward the good actors who were trying to provide the best products and services and prices and wring out the bad actors who are not. So, we think policymakers should be thinking about that.
Kornik: Right. Very interesting and a lot of this emerging tech AI movement is being led by the private sector of course, and it seems like perhaps an area that’s right for public-private partnership. Do you see opportunities for collaboration between government entities and the private sector?
Barefoot: I couldn’t agree more, Joe. We are going to have to have private and public collaborative efforts here. I think we may need some new models for those but all these area standards, the best practices, interoperability of different kinds of systems. One example is, digital identity is emerging as the key issue in fraud, which is skyrocketing, partly thanks to AI and financial inclusion and privacy. You can’t design a systemic approach to something like that unless you have the public and private sectors working closely together, which people are trying to do but we have a long way to go to do better.
Kornik: Right. Well, Jo Ann, you’ve been very generous with your time. I just have one more question for you and that’s to take me out a few years, maybe to the end of the decade, and talk to me a little bit about what you see as the future of financial regulation in, let’s say, 2030?
Barefoot: I think the future of financial regulation is like the future of everything else. Frankly, it’s data and AI and I think by 2030, we’re going to have a lot of situations where, say, a bank examiner or a securities regulator is sitting at their desk and that he too have an AI agent that enables them to get all the information that they could possibly want just by querying, just by talking to an AI that will then bring you the answers that you have, cut data in different ways, pick up the trends, the early warning systems. I think these systems are going to remove the need to do so much regulatory work with lagging indicators at risk, which is what we have mostly today, and the whole industry is going to be able to get ahead of problems. It’s not going to be perfect, I’m not naïve, and it will be so much better today if when you speak in to see risk emerging or non-compliance emerging, you can flag it immediately and fix it immediately instead of letting it accumulate over the years. It's going to be much more beneficial to the customer and the public and also to the regulated firms. They’re going to have an easier time running their businesses in a fortuitous way.
Kornik: Jo Ann, thank you so much for your time today. I really appreciate it and I really enjoyed our conversation.
Barefoot: I do too.
Kornik: And thank you for watching the VISION by Protiviti interview. For Jo Ann Barefoot, I’m Joe Kornik. We’ll see you next time.
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Protiviti's Scott Laliberte: Regulation of AI and emerging tech should not stifle innovation
Protiviti's Scott Laliberte: Regulation of AI and emerging tech should not stifle innovation
Protiviti's Scott Laliberte: Regulation of AI and emerging tech should not stifle innovation
Joe Kornik, Editor-in-Chief of VISION by Protiviti, sits down with Scott Laliberte, Managing Director and Global Leader of Protiviti’s Emerging Technology Group. Scott and his team enable clients to innovate by leveraging emerging technologies, such as AI, machine learning and IOT, among others. In this Q&A, Scott discusses all those emerging technologies and if, how and why and when the government should regulate them, and he offers his feedback on a few emerging tech data points from the Protiviti-Oxford global survey on the future of government.
In this interview:
1:03 – Emerging tech findings from the Protiviti-Oxford survey
3:30 – Regulation of AI and lessons from the privacy
6:15 – The foundations of AI governance
9:58 – The role of the private sector
12:18 – The 3-5 year outlook
Protiviti's Scott Laliberte: Regulation of AI and emerging tech should not stifle innovation
Joe Kornik: Welcome to the VISION by Protiviti interview. I’m Joe Kornik, Editor-in-Chief of VISION by Protiviti, a global content resource examining big themes that will impact the C-suite and executive boardrooms worldwide. Today, we’re exploring the future of government, and I’m happy to be joined by my Protiviti colleague, Scott Laliberte, managing director and global leader of Protiviti’s Emerging Technology Group. Scott and his team enable clients to innovate by leveraging emerging technologies such as AI, machine learning and IoT, among others. Scott, thanks so much for joining me today.
Scott Laliberte: Thanks for having me.
Kornik: Scott, as you know, we’ve recently published our Future of Government survey that we do with the University of Oxford, and we found out some interesting things regarding AI and emerging technologies. For starters, more than three-quarters of global business leaders expect emerging technologies such as IoT and AI to substantially transform the delivery of public sector services. Does that finding surprise you at all?
Laliberte: No, that doesn’t surprise me, Joe. I think so many people are encouraged and really looking forward to the advances and the efficiencies that they’ll gain with AI and IoT. AI is enabling businesses and people to do so many things right now, like more efficient predictive analytics, and when you combine that with the power of IoT and some of the data we can get from IoT censors, we’re going to be able to do some really amazing things with improving services and preventative maintenance, predictive analytics, all those things that will make services in our lives a lot easier.
Kornik: Right. Scott, in the survey, when we asked executives what role, if lany, government should play in regulating emerging technologies such as AI and deepfakes, technologies that, as we put in our survey, can disrupt democracies, 82% of business leaders believe government has a role and 53% said that role should be substantial. What do you make of those numbers?
Laliberte: Well, I think not only are folks encouraged by this technology and the breakthroughs that it is creating for us, they’re also scared of the consequences because those consequences and bad outcomes can be pretty significant. The things like deepfakes, the ability of AI to speed up and make attacks more effective and quicker all are things that they’re worried about. You combine that with the fact that it’s so new and there’s a lack of standards and regulations and all those types of things, people are pretty nervous and they’re looking for guidance. On the flipside of that, I think they don’t want to be overregulated as well. They need that guidance, they want the protection, but they want the ability to be able to continue to innovate and innovate quickly, and that’s going to require a real balancing act there to make sure that the government’s providing oversight, they’re providing guidance, they’re providing regulations, but they’re not stifling innovation by putting so much on there that companies aren’t going to be able to take advantage of the enhancements and gains that they can get with this technology.
Kornik: Right. Scott, we’ve already seen some government involvement in regulating emerging technologies with two recent SEC enforcements for AI washing, the deceptive marketing tactic which exaggerates the use of AI. Do you think we’ll see more in the future, and if so, what will that look like?
Laliberte: Yes, I think we’re going to see a lot more in the future. It’s really interesting, history tends to repeat itself. When I saw the White House executive order on AI issued back in December — fourth quarter of 2023, it was — it reminded me of the early 2000s when a similar White House executive order came out on privacy. If you remember, in the early 2000s, states were just starting to come up with some of their privacy regulations. California had come out with one. Massachusetts had come out with one. Europe had put out some of their legislation and regulations but the U.S., federally, didn’t have any guidance or regulations in this area. The White House put out a similar executive order, and then right after that, we saw enforcement actions by the FTC, DOJ, SEC for privacy-related issues but they related back to regulations and laws that already existed, Consumer Fraud and Abuse Act, Computer Protection Act, and things of that nature.
You’re seeing that now as well, these enforcement actions for AI washing. They weren’t for AI. Right. They were existing laws that existed for consumer fraud and abuse and those types of things. I think we’re going to see the same thing happen here. That executive order basically laid out a bunch of aspirational things but it set some very common-sense things as well. It said you have to be transparent with what you’re doing with AI. You have to protect customer data. You have to make sure you don’t have bias worked into any of the decisions that you’re making. It had a whole bunch of other things in there, but those were really your core tenets. I think what we’re going to see is if you violate those core tenets, the government’s going to come down on you pretty hard to make an example out of you. That’s what we saw in the early 2000s. I think we’re going to see that again. So, that’s the warning shot and a notice that people need to be taking and really embracing that they’ve got to start putting AI governance initiatives in place, make sure they don’t violate any of those core tenets, and that they’re putting their companies in a good position to leverage AI but in a responsible and ethical manner.
Kornik: Scott, from where you sit, what does effective AI governance and compliance look like? How much regulation is appropriate? How much is too much? What should companies be doing right now to prepare for when all this rolls into shape?
Laliberte: Yes. Well, I think what companies need to be doing is really laying down the foundation for AI governance. They need a steering committee. They need a group with — a multidisciplinary group of people that can really be tackling this from multiple directions. It’s not just going to be compliance. It’s not just going to be information security. It’s not just going to be legal. It’s going to be all of those groups working together with the business to really set the foundation of how do they responsibly use AI to enhance the business.
That’s going to be things like making sure you got the right policies and procedures in place, and that may sound like a daunting task but when we’ve helped companies map their policies and procedures to some of the AI standards, like the NIST AI risk management framework, you’ll find that 85%, 90% of the standards are already in place with existing policy statements or controls that they have today. They might just need to be reminded that they have those types of things in place and they apply to AI as well as other technology they already have, but majority of that is going to be in place. And then making sure that you’re educating your people on how to use it, how to develop with it in a responsible way. If you’re going to be doing risky transactions, making sure that you’ve got ways of ensuring transparency, ensuring no biases there or that you have a human in the loop to make sure that it’s not making decisions based upon incorrect information.
So, laying that foundation is going to be very important and it’s also going to be important that it continues to evolve because this area is evolving so quickly. So, that’s really on the company side. On the regulatory side of this, the balance is that, how do you regulate this given that it’s evolving so quickly and not stifle the innovation? Right. So, when you look at Europe, who took a bit of a heavier hand in putting out some very specific guidance, some consequences that will happen if you violate those things, the risk there is that it’s going to slow AI innovation in Europe. I think the United States doesn’t necessarily want to do that because we’re not just competing in the United States, we’re not just competing with Europe, we’re competing with the rest of the globe and many jurisdictions that are not going to put any type of regulations on this whatsoever. So, I think that the government is really going to be — the federal government — is going to be looking to say, “We’ve set out the tenets that we want you to abide by. Frankly, if you’re going to violate those tenets, we’re going to hammer you with existing laws that are on the books,” and that will be the way that they regulate. They’ll regulate through enforcement actions rather than necessarily legislation. What’s going to complicate that also is that the states are going to continue to put forth their legislations as well. So, it’s going to be like it was with privacy where you have a ton of different state laws that you’re trying to navigate, no real federal legislation, and you’re going to be looking at precedented enforcement actions to try and sense what’s the right direction to go in.
Kornik: Right. You touched on this a bit earlier but let’s talk about the private sector for a minute if we could. They are obviously way out in front on this. Do you see an opportunity for them to sort of lead on regulation or perhaps be integral in working with governments to align strategically to sort of make sure that we get all this right?
Laliberte: Yes. That’s a tough question. [Laughter] We’ve seen some of the big players that are already trying to set standards and put out frameworks and things like that, it’s like you got Microsoft Responsible AI and Google and AWS — all the big players are putting forth their frameworks and their guidance, and there’s many common elements. As you look across those, they align with a lot of the NIST standards and the ISO standards and things like that. I believe we will continue to see large leading organizations like that putting forth guidance, templates, all those things that we can take advantage of because they want consumers to use the technology, right, because it’s in their best interest for those things to be used aggressively and responsibly. They’ve always been in collaboration with the government, and I think we’ll continue to see that.
I think when you look at the bad things that could happen with AI, I look at it and compare it to, say, ransomware. Right. Ransomware still is a devasting attack vector that we deal with today. When it first came out, people didn’t know what to do. The government worked in collaboration with private sector and put forth guidance, and it wasn’t necessarily regulation. They didn’t regulate ransomware, but they worked trying to harden critical infrastructure and applying lessons learned and guidance from the commercial sector with government to put forth a really good defensive strategy that could be employed not only by the government but by the private sector as well. I think we’ll see a parallel here and that’s how we’ll be attacking now with AI and other emerging technologies as they start to emerge.
Kornik: Thanks, Scott. Finally, if I were to ask you to sort of look out three to five years or even to the end of the decade, how optimistic are you about all this emerging tech and its role to be a force for good in the world rather than the alternative?
Laliberte: This is a double-edged sword. I am really optimistic about the gains that we will see in society, in business, and in government services with AI and IoT, but especially AI and generative AI. We’re already seeing those gains. You look out three to five years, I mean your imagination is probably the only thing that will limit you in what we’re going to be able to provide and see as services and enhancements.
The other side here, right, the naysayer side of me or the critical thinker that I have, I also see the extreme negatives that could happen, and we have to be prepared for that. We’ve seen that over the years. I’ve been doing this for 30 years and it’s always, a new technology comes out that has great promise and it also could be used for really bad things. Security professionals, technology professionals such as myself and others, we need to be thinking about how are the bad guys going to try and use this against us? It’s that cat-and-mouse game, a game of chess where move and countermove and you’re trying to predict three moves ahead so that you can stay ahead of the bad guys and the cybercriminals out there. It is going to be a challenge. We already see accelerated attacks. The things like deepfakes are really scary in that you think about how do we defend against that? Humans have always been the weakest link in the security chain and now AI is going to allow for really sophisticated attacks that you can’t expect any human to be able to decipher or pick out that it’s a fake. So, we got to get really creative and think outside of the box and collaborate because the group mind working together and collaborating on how to defend this stuff is going to be much stronger than any one individual or any one company is going to be able to do. We’ve seen that collaboration in the past. We’ve seen the ISACs and we’ve seen the government and private sector collaboration, and that is going to be more important than ever as we move into these new waters and new territories that we have to work to combat against.
Kornik: Well, Scott, let’s hope we get this right, huh?
Laliberte: Let’s hope. We will. We have. We always have figured it out. There’ll be some pain along the way. There’ll be some very difficult lessons learned, but with each one of those we take those lessons learned and we apply it to the future to get better and stronger and we’ll continue to succeed.
Kornik: Thanks, Scott. Appreciate your time today. I really enjoyed our conversation.
Laliberte: Me, too. Thank you very much.
Kornik: Thank you for watching the VISION by Protiviti interview. On behalf of Scott Laliberte, I’m Joe Kornik. We’ll see you next time.
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Former cybersecurity director, US Navy: Data is the new oil, we need to protect it
Former cybersecurity director, US Navy: Data is the new oil, we need to protect it
Former cybersecurity director, US Navy: Data is the new oil, we need to protect it
In this VISION by Protiviti interview, Perry Keating, Managing Director and President of Protiviti Government Services, speaks with Kathleen Creighton, former director of cybersecurity for the U.S. Navy, about global threats, emerging tech, AI, the next generation of talent and how the private sector plays into national security. Creighton retired from the U.S. Navy in 2021 following a 33-year career—including six years as a Rear Admiral—where she designed cybersecurity, IT and cloud strategy policy and governance for 607,000 Navy personnel. Currently, she is Independent Director for the ManTech Corporation, the West Bend Mutual Insurance Company and the Military Women’s Memorial.
In this interview:
1:28 – What it takes to address today’s cyber threats
3:48 – Quantum and AI — game changers for cybersecurity
6:20 – Job skills and capabilities for the future
8:37 – The role of public-private partnerships in cyber defense
Former cybersecurity director, US Navy: Data is the new oil, we need to protect it
Joe Kornik: Welcome to the VISION by Protiviti interview. I’m Joe Kornik, Editor-in-Chief of VISION by Protiviti, our global content resource examining big themes that will impact the C-suite and executive boardrooms worldwide. Today, we’re exploring the future of government. I’m thrilled to be joined by Kathleen Creighton, former director of cybersecurity for the U.S. Navy where she designed cybersecurity, IT and cloud strategy policy, and governance for 607,000 Navy personnel. Kathleen retired from the U.S. Navy in 2021 following a 33-year career, including six as a Rear Admiral. Currently, she is Independent Director for the ManTech Corporation, the West Bend Mutual Insurance Company, and the Military Women’s Memorial. I’ll be turning over the interviewing duties today to my Protiviti colleague Perry Keating, Managing Director, and President of Protiviti Government Services. Perry, I’ll turn it over to you to begin.
Perry Keating: Thanks, Joe. Thank you, Kathleen, for joining us today.
Kathleen Creighton: Thank you, Perry. It’s a pleasure to be here.
Keating: Wow, we’ve heard quite an impressive resume on your behalf. One of the things I didn’t hear Joe mention was that really—you’re probably really only in a handful of information warfare, community flag officers who specialize in cybersecurity, and IT, and network, and C4ISR capabilities in the Navy. Certainly, we are honored to have you here. What an impressive background. What do you see ss the biggest cyber threats facing the federal government today? What steps do you think leaders should be taking today to address this ever-increasing threat?
Creighton: Perry, there’s so many threats. You may think I would say something like misuse of AI, or supply chain, or compromised credentials. But I really think it’s a broader issue and that issue is the sheer size and complexity of government networks. They are just massive. For example, the DoD has the third largest IP space in the world, only behind the United States and Amazon. So, it’s a gigantic network. It’s not homogenous like a corporate network. It is—it has every variance. It has on-prem, in the cloud. It has IT. It has OT. It has weapon systems. It has autonomous vehicles. It is just incredibly varied and complex to command and control.
Having said that, what the government has done, and needs to continue to do, is to remove humans as much as they can from mundane tasks, automate use of machine learning, introduction of AI. Making sure that they know what’s on their network, what’s connected to their network, the VPNs, the trust, all the connections. Make sure that they have good situational awareness and all the things that go with proper network management, configuration, control, and all the different controls. It’s complex. It takes a skilled workforce to do it. I think they need to continue to automate and make sure that they can fight hurt. Also, they know they’re going to be attacked. They’re being attacked every day. They need to make sure that they can fight hurt and they build in resiliency and know how to segment parts of the network if they need to.
Keating: I noticed that you said AI and quantum computing, but that’s emerging, right? So, you’re wondering, is it emerging faster than we can keep up with? I guess, the question that comes to mind is that “Do we think AI, quantum, and these new emerging technologies, are they’re going to be a net positive or are they going to be a net negative from a cybersecurity perspective?”
Creighton: I don’t think we have the luxury to say whether it’s going to be a net positive or net negative. I think it’s just fact. It’s coming. It’s going to happen. So, we just we have to prepare. AI is already here but will be coming faster and faster. So, we need to get these technologies in the hands of the people who are defenders and let them experiment, let them use it and get comfortable with it, and let them train on it. Deepen the understanding that AI will be part of our crown jewels, right? It will be the thing we’re going to have to defend. It will be something we have to defend in critical infrastructure. So, I think we need to get on with it.
As far as quantum, that’s a huge game changer that it’s hard to get your mind around. A hundred-time increase—hundred million time increase in computing power. It’s mind baffling. So, it will make everything faster. It will make attacks faster. It will make defense faster. Of course, the concern that many of us have, or most of the government has, is its impact on cryptology, on the data that we have encrypted, and that our adversaries will be able to break that encryption much more quickly. So, I think in preparation for that the government needs to—and they are—but really needs to get serious about understanding their inventory of crypto. What types they have, what their purpose, what it’s protecting, the risk of those things, to be able to prioritize. Once they get post-quantum cryptology they’re going to have to be able to implement that quickly and do it based on risk.
Keating: Interesting. Interesting. I heard you talk about the need to remove people I almost wanted to chuckle, right? Always want a little job security [Laughter] but there’s no question that the government still is going to need—be able to have access to the best people trying to solve some of these challenges. From a talent and workforce perspective, one, do you think we have the skill sets that are needed? If not, where do we go get those skill sets and be able to retain that talent that would be so desperately needed?
Creighton: I didn’t mean to insinuate that we’re going to remove people. We’re just going to remove people from doing mundane tasks and put them on other more important tasks. Workforce is one of the key issues. It’s going to be hard but we’re going to be able to do it. We need to start with elementary school. My daughter, for example, went to cyber camp, and it introduced her to a lot of STEM things and cyber. Of course, she went on to become an English major so it didn’t work very well on her, but some kids at the camp hopefully came away that they wanted to pursue STEM. I think with the young people—I think with cryptology, there’s opportunities—I met a young woman this week who goes to a top university. She got exposed to national security and defense. She’s now going to go work for the Navy as a cyber analyst. So, there are patriotic people who want to serve, who want to do this type of work, and we need to reach out—we need to increase diversity. Even things like neurodiversity, right? There’s a three-letter agency where everybody jokes that, “Everybody looks at their shoes.” That’s how you know that they work there. Well, those people are—a lot of them are neurodiverse. We need to attract those people and realize that maybe they don’t interview so well because they have problems maybe making eye contact all the time. But, boy, they’re good at puzzles and analysis.
Keating: I think you provide a unique perspective. You certainly spent decades in the public sector and now you’ve spend some time in the private sector. Are there unique ways that the public and private sectors should be working together or public-private partnerships? Is there any advice or thoughts you had for both the government side of this as well as for the private sector side of this that you think might be helpful in this area?
Creighton: Yes, I think partnerships are incredibly important. The last 10 years in the government, we were really, really pressing on ways that we could partner with industry. especially with cyber threat vulnerability, working with all different types of organizations. I think as a country we’re at the point where we realize that the data is the center of everything. That this is the gold, right? This is the new oil. We need to protect that. The only way we’re going to protect it is through working together, sharing threat intelligence, sharing vulnerabilities, sharing knowledge, and building bridges. So, it’s incredibly important and it’s important that industry feels like they get something out of it and that both sides feel like they get something out of it. That isn’t just the government pushing out information and that the private sector is just like, “Okay. Thanks.” But that they both feel like they’re getting something out of it. I think increasingly they’re feeling that. Also, there’s education. That each know when something bad happens who is their point of contact? Who is your contact with the FBI? Who is your contact? Reach out to that person before you have an incident so that you know each other and you know you’ve already established that communication.
Keating: So, no doubt stakes are high. So, if you had to look out tp 2030, 2035, how optimistic are you? How pessimistic are you? What thoughts do you have? How do you see the future laying out?
Creighton: I’m an optimist. My glass is half full. I have no doubt that we will have compromises, that we will have data loss, that we will have critical infrastructure, compromises, that companies will have data stolen from them and they’ll have ransomware. All these things are going to happen. Hopefully, not too many people get hurt, not too much money is lost, but it will happen. I’m also confident that we’re going to learn from it and we’re going to adapt to it, and that as a country working together, public, private, that we can defend not only our intellectual property, defend our critical infrastructure and ensure our national security.
Keating: All right. Well, Kathleen, thank you so much for your time today. I really enjoyed our conversation.
Creighton: Thank you, Perry.
Keating: All right. Joe, I guess, we’re back to you in the studio.
Kornik: Thanks, Perry and thanks, Kathleen. Thank you for watching the VISION by Protiviti interview. Please rate and subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts and be sure to visit vision.protiviti.com to view all of our latest content. Until next time, I’m Joe Kornik.
Kathleen Creighton retired from the U.S. Navy in 2021 following a 33-year career, including six years of service as a Rear Admiral. Creighton was one of a handful of Information Warfare Community Flag Officers specializing in cybersecurity, IT solutions, network operation and C4ISR capabilities; she also served as the Navy’s Director of Cybersecurity where she designed Navy-wide cybersecurity, IT and cloud strategy policy and governance for 607,000 Navy personnel. Creighton currently serves as an Independent Director for the ManTech Corporation, the West Bend Mutual Insurance Company and the Military Women’s Memorial.
Perry Keating is a Managing Director and President of Protiviti Government Services, Privacy & Cybersecurity, with over 30 years of doing business with the government and the defense industrial base (DIB). His experience gives him unique industry insight into the public sector (U.S. federal, state & local), aerospace & defense, government contractors, defense industrial base (DIB), as well as the telecommunications and high-tech industries.
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Protiviti-Oxford survey: Most global execs have concerns about government’s impact on business
Protiviti-Oxford survey: Most global execs have concerns about government’s impact on business
Protiviti-Oxford survey: Most global execs have concerns about government’s impact on business
In 2024, global business leaders have plenty to worry about, including how government actions may impact their bottom-line business performance. In a global Future of Government survey conducted by Protiviti and the University of Oxford, the overwhelming majority of executives—97%—say they have some level of concern about the ability of the government to impact their business over the next decade. And more than half (56%) classify that concern as substantial or extreme.
What impact, if any, do you anticipate your government will have on your overall business success over the next decade? (by location)
Geographically, North American business leaders (69%) far outpace European (40%) and Asian-Pacific (36%) leaders in their belief that government will have a positive impact on their business. This is a notable trend in the survey across nearly every category measured: North American executives express a higher level of faith and trust in the government’s ability to affect change and create a more positive environment to conduct business.
What about public-private partnerships? Nearly six in 10 (59%) business leaders report it’s likely their business will collaborate or cooperate on a specific project or as part of a formal partnership with a government entity over the next ten years. In North America, more than a third (34%) categorize that collaboration as extremely likely. That level of enthusiasm dips to 19% in Asia-Pacific and just 12% in Europe.
Economic factors
Business leaders are looking to the government to pull levers leading to a healthy economy in their region: 80% say they expect the government to have some level of involvement in controlling economic growth, unemployment and inflation with the management of demand and money. Nineteen percent of respondents would expect that involvement to be “significant.” Only 3% of business leaders say government should have “no involvement at all” in controlling economic growth.
Again, North American executives are most optimistic, with two-thirds (67%) saying they expect the government to have a high level of involvement in controlling economic growth. In Europe, that number is slightly more than half (52%), and it’s just one-third (33%) in Asia-Pacific.
Business leaders get even more bullish when it comes to government’s role in correcting “market failures” caused by financial conditions through regulation, taxation and subsidies. Nearly nine in ten (87%) business leaders believe government should play a role, and almost a quarter (24%) say that corrective role should be “significant.” A mere 2% say government should have “no involvement at all” in correcting market failures.
80%
Four out of Five executives say they expect the government to have some level of involvement in controlling economic growth, unemployment and inflation with the management of demand and money.
What level of involvement, if any, do you think the government should have in correcting "market failures" — caused by either financial conditions or discriminatory action — through regulation, taxation, subsidies, and providing public goods?
Government for social good
But it’s more than just the economy. Global business leaders also overwhelmingly believe government can be a benevolent force for social good. When it comes to equity and equality, 60% of survey respondents say government should have substantial involvement in achieving a just and fair society through regulation, progressive taxation, subsidies and the adjustment of rights, as well as giving access to markets in the face of discrimination. Another 25% think it should have moderate involvement. That leaves just 15% believing the government should have little (13%) to no (2%) involvement whatsoever.
In North America, 38% of executives say government should have “significant” involvement in creating a just and fair society. Again, that percentage is almost double that of leaders in Asia-Pacific (18%) and Europe (10%).
And when it comes to climate change, a whopping 83% of executives say they are confident their own government will have successfully implemented its sustainability and climate change initiatives within ten years. Great news indeed, and a nod to government’s ability to solve big problems. Again, that North American optimism shines through, with more than a third “extremely confident” government will meet its climate goals. In Asia-Pacific, it’s 20% and only 6% in Europe.
Emerging tech and e-government
E-government and the digitization of government services are already in motion, so it’s not surprising more than three-quarters (81%) of business leaders say they expect emerging technologies such as the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence and blockchain to substantially transform the delivery of public sector services in the future. And nearly half of all respondents (48%) would categorize that transformation as substantial.
Some 68% of North American business leaders say they anticipate a high level of transformation, while Europe (38%) and Asia-Pacific (34%) don’t seem to see the same level of disruption from emerging technologies on the horizon.
When we asked executives what role, if any, government should play in regulating emerging technologies that can disrupt democracies, such as AI and deep fakes, 82% said believe government has a role, and 53% said that role should be substantial. Again, almost a third (32%) of respondents in North America say government should have a “significant” role in regulating emerging tech, more than Europe (10%) and Asia-Pacific (17%) combined.
83%
a whopping 83% of executives say they are confident their own government will have successfully implemented its sustainability and climate change initiatives within ten years.
What level of involvement, if any, do you think the government should play in regulating emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence and deep fakes? (by location)
Big Brother and privacy
It’s safe to say that business leaders have concerns about government and privacy. Just 4% of global executives say they are “not concerned at all” about privacy as it relates to the government’s ability to watch, track and monitor citizens and companies through surveillance systems, facial recognition software and AI. Nearly half (49%) say they are either “significantly” or “extremely” concerned about privacy.
However, North American executives are far more concerned about the government intruding on citizens’ privacy than other global executives. A significant 70% say they are highly concerned about government surveillance; a much higher percentage than business leaders in Europe (32%), where government intrusion is limited, and Asia-Pacific (38%), where facial recognition technology is more common.
As government services continue to be digitized, we asked executives if they have concerns about the government’s ability to protect citizens’ data in an “e-government” environment. Perhaps not surprisingly, 83% say they are concerned: 58% are highly concerned, while another quarter are somewhat concerned. Executives citing “extreme” concerns varied by geography with North America (39%) outpacing Europe and Asia-Pacific, both checking in at 14%.
Incentives move the needle
Meanwhile, business leaders seem ready—and perhaps even eager—to be responsive to government action. Some 86% of business leaders say future government subsidies and incentives would move the needle on their business and investment decisions, and 55% say that impact will be substantial.
Meanwhile, when we asked business leaders about the likelihood of increasing their investment in innovation and research and development in response to government funding incentives or initiatives within their specific industry, 54% say they are either somewhat (30%) or extremely (24%) likely to do so. Only 17% say it’s unlikely their business would increase its investment in innovation and R&D, despite additional government funding.
Incentivizing factors can also play a role in determining where a business is located, and 52% say government plays a substantial role, and another 30% say it plays a moderate role, in determining business location. We asked business leaders to rank the aspects of government that play the biggest role in determining their business location. Here are their answers, from highest to lowest impact:
- Infrastructure and utilities
- Labor rules
- Regulation and compliance
- Economic stability
- Freedom of entry
- Taxes and the cost of doing business
In North America, the highest-ranking factor determining business location is regulation and compliance; in Europe, it’s infrastructure and utilities, and in Asia-Pacific, it’s labor rules. Executives over the age of 50 say economic stability is the biggest factor, while younger execs focus on infrastructure and utilities. Of course, the two often go hand in hand.
70%
A significant 70% of leaders in North America say they are highly concerned about government surveillance.
As government services are digitized, how concerned are you, if at all, about your government’s ability to protect data in an "e-government" environment?
Money and taxation
Even though taxes and the cost of doing business ranked dead last in factors determining business location, it doesn’t mean executives aren’t thinking about taxation. When we asked them to categorize their expectations on the overall level of taxation for their company over the next decade, 31% of business leaders say taxes will remain about the same, while 10% expected them to be somewhat lower or significantly lower (3%). That’s 44% who say they don’t expect taxes to increase over the next ten years, a number that’s very surprising. The remaining 56% say taxes will be “somewhat” higher (30%) or “significantly” higher (26%).
We also asked executives to rank which taxes they expect to increase for their company over the next decade. Their answers, from highest to lowest:
- Tax on goods and services
- Tax on corporate profits
- Tax on property
- Tax on payroll
- Tax on personal income
- Tax on social security contributions
Older executives believe the biggest tax increases will come from taxes on property, while the younger cohort says the biggest increases will come from taxes on goods and services.
From a geographic perspective, European and Asian-Pacific executives are aligned on where they expect the biggest tax increases: goods and services and social security. Incidentally, those two categories are the two lowest among North American executives. In North America, respondents expect the biggest tax increases to come from property and corporate profits, categories that score much lower elsewhere in the world.
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Dr. David Howard, Director of Studies, Sustainable Urban Development Program, University of Oxford and a Fellow of Kellogg College, Oxford. He is Director for the DPhil in Sustainable Urban Development and Director of Studies for the Sustainable Urban Development Program at the University of Oxford, which promotes lifelong learning for those with professional and personal interests in urban development. David is also Co-Director of the Global Centre on Healthcare and Urbanization at Kellogg College, which hosts public debates and promotes research on key urban issues.
Dr. Nigel Mehdi is Course Director in Sustainable Urban Development, University of Oxford. An urban economist by background, Mehdi is a chartered surveyor working at the intersection of information technology, the built environment and urban sustainability. Nigel gained his PhD in Real Estate Economics from the London School of Economics and he holds postgraduate qualifications in Politics, Development and Democratic Education, Digital Education and Software Engineering. He is a Fellow at Kellogg College.
Dr. Vlad Mykhnenko is an Associate Professor, Sustainable Urban Development, University of Oxford. He is an economic geographer, whose research agenda revolves around one key question: “What can economic geography contribute to our understanding of this or that problem?” Substantively, Mykhnenko’s academic research is devoted to geographical political economy – a trans-disciplinary study of the variegated landscape of capitalism. Since 2003, he has produced well over 100 research outputs, including books, journal articles, other documents, and digital artefacts.
Former Australia Minister for Foreign Affairs Julie Bishop: Find a way to build a better world
Former Australia Minister for Foreign Affairs Julie Bishop: Find a way to build a better world
Former Australia Minister for Foreign Affairs Julie Bishop: Find a way to build a better world
The challenges facing governments around the world, including Australia, are immense and growing. Leaders in both the public and private sector need to evaluate the risks and take the necessary steps to begin to solve the unprecedented problems they face. To help sort it all out, VISION by Protiviti caught up with Julie Bishop, Australia’s Minister for Foreign Affairs from 2013 until 2018. Bishop was the first female to hold the role as well as the first female Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party, serving for 11 years. In a political career spanning over 20 years, including a stint as acting Prime Minister in 2017, Bishop also served as Minister for Education, Science and Training; Minister for Women’s Issues; and Minister for Aging. Currently, she is Chancellor of the Australian National University, appointed in 2020. Protiviti Managing Director Steve Baker sat down with Bishop to talk megatrends, talent, trust, gender, generations, education design, as well as the future of Australia, its government, people and the planet.
Steven Baker: It’s such a pleasure to be able to speak with you today. Thank you for joining us.
Julie Bishop: Thank you, I appreciate the invitation!
Baker: I’ve heard you talk about four megatrends that are already disrupting Australia and the globe and will continue to do so far into the future. They are emerging technologies, shifts in geopolitical and economic power, a backlash against globalization, and climate change. Let’s take them one at a time: How do we ensure we put regulations and guardrails in place around technological advances such as AI, quantum computing, genetic engineering and others without stifling innovation and creativity?
Bishop: This is a significant challenge as policy makers and legislators often lack detailed understanding of complex technological developments. The CEO of OpenAI has warned that unrestrained development could threaten humanity and has called upon U.S. Congressional leaders to impose regulations. However, this is a global challenge as technology companies can easily seek less restrictive regulatory environments elsewhere should they feel stifled in one jurisdiction. The response thus needs to be global, and that could be achieved through various means, including multilateral organizations and bilateral treaties between leading nations in these fields.
One of the significant hurdles for achieving global regulation is the interface between private sector development and that in defense and intelligence agencies. It will be difficult to convince national governments to be transparent in the development of advanced technologies currently subject to high-level security classifications. The precedent for how global cooperation could work is the response to the existential threat of nuclear weapons through the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). While not perfect, it has largely been effective in preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, albeit with a small number of notable failures.
I am optimistic as there is a significant effort underway to develop guardrails against the misuse of emerging and powerful technologies. This is occurring within governments, with a level of cooperation from the private sector and supported by higher learning institutions, including Australian National University through its advanced research centers in super computing, cybernetics and advanced science.
One of the significant hurdles for achieving global regulation is the interface between private sector development and that in defense and intelligence agencies. It will be difficult to convince national governments to be transparent in the development of advanced technologies currently subject to high-level security classifications.
Baker: How should leaders navigate the shifts in geopolitical and economic power?
Bishop: Historically, times of significant shifts in geopolitical and economic power have been tumultuous. China’s rapid industrialization and growth over the past 45 years has seen it challenge the dominant role of the United States in the global economy and in global affairs. This has been exemplified by President Xi’s Belt and Road initiative that mobilized billions of dollars in funds and supported a large increase in China’s outreach, to the developing world in particular. China has challenged the U.S. and multilateral organizations, including the World Bank, as the preferred partner for infrastructure development in many nations. It has also become more assertive in its territorial claims with some of its neighbors, including in the South China Sea and over Taiwan.
Leaders need to look as far ahead as possible and undertake scenario mapping and planning of the various outcomes, by considering all the key variables while trying to understand the implications of increasingly complex challenges. It is important to focus on areas of greatest rivalry between the competing powers. Technology and access to high-level computer chips is one area where that competition is intense as the U.S. seeks to maintain an advantage in cutting-edge technology development and has restricted sales to China. The U.S. is also considering the forced divestment of popular video streaming app TikTok, which is alleged to have close ties to the Chinese government, although the company disputes that.
China recently launched a World Trade Organization challenge to U.S. electric vehicle subsidies. There are simmering tensions in many other areas of trade. The ability of organizations and government to balance their relationships with the U.S. and China is becoming increasingly difficult, and leaders need to be alert to areas where they may be forced to choose a longer-term partner.
Baker: What are some ways government leaders can, both here in Australia and globally, embrace globalism and its economic ideals?
Bishop: Globalism has brought great benefit to the world as it has been driven by the economic imperatives of efficiency, economies of scale, comparative advantage and global transport networks. This has provided an opportunity for many developing nations to more fully participate in global trade and to seek opportunities for improving their domestic economies. However, the COVID-19 pandemic exposed some vulnerabilities in supply chains, particularly the shortages of personal protective equipment in the early stages.
It is also important that governments acknowledge the negative impacts that globalism has had on some communities and to develop policy responses. For example, China’s rapid industrialization had a significant impact on the manufacturing sectors of many developed nations, and that has created pockets of disadvantage and resentment. There must be full and frank discussions about globalism and its impacts, both positive and negative, so that we can adopt policies to gain the greatest benefit while mitigating the downsides.
The ability of organizations and government to balance their relationships with the U.S. and China is becoming increasingly difficult, and leaders need to be alert to areas where they may be forced to choose a longer-term partner.
Baker: Where do you see Australia’s role in combating climate change? Can it be an ESG and sustainability leader on the world stage?
Bishop: Climate change is a global problem and thus requires a coordinated international response. Australia can play a leading role in engaging with multilateral institutions and supporting the development of appropriate and effective policies. Our universities and scientific research agencies can play an important role in establishing an evidence base for both the impacts of climate change and to help identify the responses that gain the greatest benefit at the least cost.
One of the challenges for a coordinated international response has been a level of inconsistency from the United States in recent years: supporting the Paris COP21 agreement, then withdrawing from that agreement under the Trump Administration and rejoining under the Biden Administration. This places greater responsibility on other nations to maintain policy momentum, and Australia has played a responsible role in relevant forums.
Another critical element in the response to climate change is to achieve technological breakthroughs in clean energy so that baseload power can be generated at levels to sustain major cities and industries. Australia is also playing a role in the international research effort to unlock new sources of energy, including nuclear fusion and others.
Baker: How optimistic are you that governments around the world will be able to come together and cooperate to solve some of these huge issues the planet is facing?
Bishop: I am optimistic that humanity will rise to these challenges as there are serious, even unthinkable, implications from failure. However, that does not mean it will be a smooth road to finding appropriate responses. There are vastly differing governance models around the world and the policy development process can be markedly different. That means governments will seek to achieve the best possible outcome for their citizens to advance their national interests, and that inevitably means policy fragmentation. Leaders need to embrace and encourage full and open debates as that will allow them to consider and evaluate all the competing options and costs. It is vitally important to hear from different perspectives when the conversation involves these incredibly complex issues. Contestability is an important skill set for those leading policy debates and development.
Baker: Where do you see the private sector’s role in solving, or helping to solve, some of these big problems you just discussed? What steps can global business leaders take right now in the interest of doing both well and good?
Bishop: With regard to climate, the private sector can play an important role in driving technological breakthroughs and establishing mechanisms such as trading in carbon credits, when governments find such things difficult or virtually impossible. The private sector is also a significant source of carbon emissions and is thus in a position to have a major impact by adopting new technologies and approaches. The World Economic Forum releases a bi-annual report titled the Future of Jobs that surveys companies around the world about various impacts on employment. Technology has been identified as a major employment disruptor, although it is anticipated to create new jobs as it also displaces people from some roles. The report has identified a business model of technology being used to augment rather than replace the human workforce. However, that will require significant training and retraining on a scale that will need partnerships between government, the private sector and educational institutions. Global business leaders need to maintain open channels of communication with government so there is time to develop appropriate policy responses.
One of the challenges for a coordinated international response has been a level of inconsistency from the United States in recent years: supporting the Paris COP21 agreement, then withdrawing from that agreement under the Trump Administration and rejoining under the Biden Administration.
Baker: If we could, I’d like to talk about trust. So much of leadership is about trust. Less than half of Australians think their democracy is working. And there’s also declining institutional trust in the private sector, as well. How can we rebuild that trust?
Bishop: Transparency is one of the foundations of trust. One of the criticisms of many governments is that politicians have been captured by business elites and wealthy individuals, who allegedly collude to promote their interests to the detriment of the broader community. To build trust, it is important that there is timely reporting of political and campaign donations, and subsequent access to political leaders. Further, there needs to be greater transparency around many government decisions so the public can be confident the interests of the community were paramount. Political and business leaders need to engage openly in debates about alternative approaches to build community consensus for any responses.
Baker: You were the first woman to hold the role of Foreign Minister and Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party, and you also served as the Minister for Women. How do we get more women in critical leadership positions in government? Are there lessons that we should learn from the private sector?
Bishop: The key is to build a pipeline of talented and experienced women from the grassroots level and this must involve mentoring networks and other supportive structures. One of the challenges is ensuring that merit remains the most important criteria for leadership, women often have a different style than men, and it is important for that to be recognized by those making decisions about promotions and judging the leadership qualities of candidates. With many workplaces dominated by male leaders, there is a need for improved awareness of the different leadership styles within the existing workforce.
Baker: Thanks for that. With the current workforce representing five generations, and your role in education as the Chancellor of the Australian National University, how are you working with employers to build talent that meets their needs?
Bishop: It is a matter of looking as far ahead as possible and doing our best to anticipate the skills and knowledge that will be valuable to employers in a rapidly changing economy. One way that the Australian National University supports this goal is flexibility in degree design and choice. Undergraduates have virtually unlimited choices in designing their degrees so they can customize their learning experience to align with their career aspirations. The ANU undertakes regular liaison with private sector companies to better understand their needs for employee skills and also their research needs. Arguably, the biggest generational trend is convincing people of the need for lifelong learning as technology in particular increasingly disrupts many professions. We strive to equip our graduates with the critical thinking skills to allow them to more quickly adapt to changing conditions in the workplace and beyond.
There needs to be greater transparency around many government decisions so the public can be confident the interests of the community were paramount.
Baker: You’re also dealing with significant disruption in higher education. What do you see as the biggest challenges there over the next few years and how are you addressing them?
Bishop: Technology will continue to disrupt education, and the emergence of AI tools is the most recent challenge. The ANU believes that rather than fighting against the inevitable, we should encourage students to leverage AI to elevate their knowledge and skills. The delivery of education also needs to evolve in response to student expectations. While many value the on-campus experience, there is a need to ensure remote and flexible access to lectures and other learning supports. The cost of education is also increasing, and students can be justified in having raised expectations of their university experience. At the ANU we have a significant residential on-campus student population, and we strive to have on-campus services and support to ensure students have a fulfilling and safe time within our institution.
Morrissey: You’ve been generous with your time, and I have just two more quick questions: When you look out to 2030 and beyond, how optimistic are you we’ll get most of this right? Are better days ahead?
Bishop: I have faith that humanity will collectively respond to the challenges and any crises that may develop. We have shown remarkable resilience over the centuries, and while we may experience adversity at times, we have generally found a way to build a better world, and I expect that to continue. That said, the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza illustrate that peace can be fragile and that violence can break out suddenly and unexpectedly, inflicting loss of life and suffering on civilian communities. Financial and economic crises can also emerge suddenly and overwhelm policymakers and the ability of governments to respond. The increasing complexity of our financial systems makes such crises less predictable and potentially more severe. So, while I remain optimistic that better days are ahead in the longer term, that does not mean there will not be difficult times and challenges on the way there.
Morrissey: Can you give me one bold prediction on anything we’ve discussed, or perhaps didn’t discuss, about either Australia or the world a decade from now? What’s something that may surprise us in 2034?
Bishop: New forms of energy always seem to be about a decade away, however the emergence of super and quantum computers will hopefully accelerate development and discovery of a new and clean source of energy that allows us to transition away from fossil fuels.
Julie Bishop served as Australia’s Minister for Foreign Affairs from 2013 until 2018. She was the first female to hold the role as well as the first female Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party, serving for 11 years. In a political career spanning over 20 years, Julie also served as Minister for Education, Science and Training, Minister for Women’s Issues and Minister for Ageing. Currently, she is Chancellor of the Australian National University, appointed in 2020. Prior to entering politics, Bishop was Managing Partner of the National law firm Clayton Utz in Perth. Julie is Chair of the Board of Prince’s Trust Australia, Trustee of Prince’s Trust Group Company, Chair of the Board of Telethon Kids Institute, Member of the International Advisory Board of Council on Foreign Relations. She has also established a boutique consultancy, Julie Bishop and Partners, offering strategic advisory services.
Steve Baker is a Protiviti Managing Director and Australia Government Lead with almost 30 years experience providing assurance services to a significant number of organizations, from major national companies to all sizes of Commonwealth and State government departments. Steve has performed and been responsible for many performance and compliance internal audits, IT audits, maturity assessments and other consultancy assignments. Steve has a tremendous history of client loyalty and takes great pride in his client-centric approach.
Heidi Crebo-Rediker on future-proofing your business amid geopolitical risks
Heidi Crebo-Rediker on future-proofing your business amid geopolitical risks
Heidi Crebo-Rediker on future-proofing your business amid geopolitical risks
Joe Kornik sits down with Heidi Crebo-Rediker to discuss how business leaders can future-proof their business amid geopolitical risks. Credo-Rediker has held senior leadership positions in both in government and business, providing advice on geo-economics and international economic policy for two U.S. presidents. She is a former CEO and currently a Partner at International Capital Strategies, an Executive Vice President at America’s Frontier Fund, and an Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
In this interview:
1:28 – Why pay attention to geopolitical risk?
6:38 – Prioritizing of issues: A national security lens
11:11 – Integrating economics with geopolitics
14:10 – Public-private partnership: A Venn diagram
18:20 – The world in 2035 and beyond
Heidi Crebo-Rediker on future-proofing your business amid geopolitical risks
Joe Kornik: Welcome to the VISION by Protiviti interview. I’m Joe Kornik, Editor-in-Chief of VISION by Protiviti, our global content resource examining big themes that will impact the C-suite and executive boardrooms worldwide. Today, we’re supporting the future of government, and I’m thrilled to welcome in Heidi Crebo-Rediker. Heidi has held senior leadership positions in both government and business, providing advice on geo-economics and international economic policy for two U.S. presidents. She served on the Biden Treasury Department transition team as lead on internation affairs, and previously in the Obama Administration as the state department’s first chief economist, where she provided guidance to two secretaries of state on the intersection of finance and geopolitics. She is a former CEO and currently a partner at International Capital Strategies, an executive vice president at America’s frontier fund, and an adjunct senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Heidi, thank you so much for joining me today.
Heidi Crebo-Rediker: Thank you so much for the invitation to join you.
Kornik: Heidi, you have such a unique background with extensive public and private sector experience on a global scale. So, your perspective here will be really valuable, I think. We’d all agree that we’re in a pretty tumultuous time right now, and navigating that, I think, will be challenging. So, what’s your advice to business leaders for future-proofing their business against geopolitical risks and sort of disruption that’s sort of happening all around us right now?
Crebo-Rediker: So, that is a great question, Joe. I guess my first piece of advice would be if you are not paying attention to geopolitical, and I would extend to political risk, this can impact your business, and now is the time to start. I guess the second point I would make, piece of advice, is to be proactive. If you’re going to future-proof, you need to be proactive and not reactive. Scenario plan and make it the job of the board and the management. This is something that outside of government I’ve been doing for the past 10 years or so with International Capital Strategies. It’s a healthy exercise.
So, just going back to the first point on why? Why pay attention? When we came out of COVID, we are facing a hot war in Europe, in the Middle East, and both took place very, very quickly. It took a lot of companies and countries by surprise, and there have been big ramifications for supply chains and commodity prices and energy security and transition, insurance costs, and relationships between companies and countries as a result. Again, we’re also facing tension in the South China Sea, in the Taiwan Straits, and we are deep into arising strategic competition between the U.S. and China. So, the result is really, there’s some big structural changes that we’re already seeing in the flows of goods and capital and trade relationships, and this architecture is going to continue to change. It’s playing out now and it will play out over the next decade.
We all know that concentration risk makes companies vulnerable and resilience and diversification of supply chains and of service providers can actually lessen the blow. Conflicts not only result in sudden disruptions, but they also can be followed on with sanctions and export controls and investment restrictions and the like. So, these are forced reactions. I think that brings me to my second point, which is that you can get ahead of this. In being proactive and not reactive. The way that I would recommend doing this is really to scenario plan. You can’t really model for geopolitical risk. It involves looking into the future and looking around corners and being smart about the way you plan for the different scenarios of what could happen. Then you can start to prepare how your company would respond to each one. I think scenarios are powerful tools. They should be a habit, not just a one-off event. It’s a good habit because it enables you to challenge conventional wisdom and really protect both the board and management against groupthink.
I think scenario planning is not new. If you go back to Shell and the famous Shell scenarios, they’ve been doing this since the 1970s. Just developing visions of the future. I think because they’ve been dealing with geopolitical risks for a long time, it’s something that they’ve become very good at.
I would take the example of Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine. Most countries and companies really didn’t anticipate that Russia would invade Ukraine beyond the invasion of 2014. It was a real massive failure of imagination and planning for the unthinkable because there was a lot of signals in that, in that noise running up until the invasion. We were paying attention to it because the signals were very clear and we flagged that the invasion was imminent. Imagine the ramifications and the clients that we were working with got, to the best of their ability, their investments and also their people out. It’s really also, I think, a study in how both European countries and companies became overly dependent, eyes closed. They developed a vulnerable overdependence on Russia for energy. There was huge concentration risk. There was no scenario plan that this would happen. It was captured by groupthink and I think that’s what you want to try to avoid as a company.
It begins with the board. Integrating geopolitical risk and how you determine what spillovers and disruptions may occur and embed it into the oversight mandate. You do need board members, or at least advisors with the right background who can ask the right questions. It’s a lot about asking the right questions.
Kornik: As I mentioned, you served on the Biden Treasury Department transition team as lead on international affairs, helping build the sort of international economic policy team, crafting policy on economic security, China policy, supply chain resilience, as you mentioned, trade, energy, the IMF and more. I bring all those up because they’re all still, I think, really big issues right now. Which of those issues will require the most attention and action over the next several years and how should we be addressing them?
Crebo-Rediker: So, I think all of those areas and issues are important. I think maybe a more helpful exercise is to look at those issues through a framework or a prism. The prism I would choose is that national security is trumping commercial and economic interest, and that is the world in which we live right now. It’s not just the U.S. This is something that is very clear, the prism that China is using. The prism that Russia is using. Increasingly, you’re seeing countries, Japan, you’re seeing many countries in Europe actually looking at, taking a look through the national security prism. This plays out in supply chain resilience, in trade, in energy and energy security, and even through IMF programs. I think most clearly, it’s playing out in U.S.-China policy. We have better mood music right now. The direction of travel is quite clear regardless of who is going to be in the White House come January of next year. But, right now, I would not be as much distracted by the mood music and think about what the general trajectory of the relationship is. On the back of that trajectory, the U.S. has really reconfigured a lot of its economic security relationships. If you look at the Indo-Pacific, there’s new architecture that we’re creating with allies, likeminded countries. We’re creating new kind of sectoral partnerships, like the minerals, security partnership. It’s really focused on how the government, the U.S. government, is looking at its own supply chain resilience. Critical minerals and metals are necessary for energy transition and energy security, and they have defense applications as well. So again, it’s the national security prism.
The other thing I would say is there’s a potential for forced decoupling that could come about as part of the defensive agenda that countries have. The U.S., the G7, other likeminded countries, and it’s for several reasons. As I mentioned, we’re guarding against our own strategic vulnerability. Because we’ve also seen over the past, more than a decade, that China is a master of weaponization, of overdependence, and it’s part of their strategy. So, we need to be thinking like that as well. It’s not just critical minerals and metals. It’s also we have overdependence in pharmaceutical products. What we’ve seen with the Russian invasion is that we had overdependence on various types of food commodities, and so we saw food shocks.
The second is that I think we’re going to see a lot more protecting of strategic advantage. The U.S., we’ve already, we’ve seen for several years into the protection and increasing protection of critical and emerging technologies. I think this is a trend. I think there’s more to come. The White House has been very clear. It’s about advanced computing and microelectronics, quantum, artificial intelligence, and also, on their list, biotechnologies and biomanufacturing, and think about broadband. There are many different categories that we might want to be thinking about where we want to be protecting national security and how that might play out in commerce.
Kornik: Right. Right, and that sort of leads me right into my next question, which I mentioned in the intro that you served in the Obama Administration as the state department’s first Chief Economist where you provided strategic advice to Secretaries of State on the integration of economics and finance with geopolitics, right? I think that’s something that a lot of business leaders are sort of struggling with right now. So, what strategic advice would you give business leaders trying to sort of successfully navigate that integration between finance and economics with geopolitics?
Crebo-Rediker: So, one of the things, and looking back at that experience at the state department, you got to get out of your silo and make silo-crossing something that is part of an institutional culture. Because we live in a very complicated world, and convergence is a theme that we’re really seeing everywhere. In a time of rapid convergence, you don’t want to be stuck in a silo. So, institutionalizing, that is actually critical. That’s what we did at the state department for economic state craft. You had a department that was filled with immensely talented professionals that have deep national security talent. The idea was really to get them and encourage them to think differently about some of the economic and financial drivers of power and also of change that had implications for foreign policy across the institution. That included, at the time, financial crises, the rise of non-market state actors and the impact on global commerce.
At that time, we also were looking at the weaponization of energy and pipeline politics. So there were sort of those things that had clear national security implications. Then we also were thinking about the rise of economic tools. How can we create opportunity and sort of have a development of a positive economic statecraft, enterprise funds, as well as some of the more coercive tools like sanctions. We brought a lot of new talent in, but also it was really about getting everybody to think a little bit differently, getting them out of their comfort zones and crossing siloes.
I think the state department’s actually doing that right now with critical and emerging technology. Same thing that businesses are doing, society is doing. The tech innovation as a source of national power for the U.S., it’s increasingly foundational. So, every bilateral relationship and multilateral relationship, and every functional issue that the state department deals with, from climate change to human rights or arms control, there’s definitely a technology element that’s growing. So, business leaders need to drive the silo-crossing as an institutional priority. Bring in new talent, new perspective, and then this will feed back better into scenario planning.
Kornik: Right, right. You have such a unique perspective because you do have such vast experience in both the business world and the government world. Sort of the public and the private sector. How do you see those two most effectively interacting and intersecting in the future? What does the public-private sector Venn diagram, if you will, what does that look like?
Crebo-Rediker: The Venn diagram—I like that. I like the visual. I think the public-private sector Venn diagram is changing very quickly and it’s increasing the overlap between public and private. It’s ever more important. It’s directly related to what we’ve already discussed. I think it’s really, it’s the flipside and it’s the opportunity side, that industrial policy with all of the challenges that come along with managing that appropriately really presents the biggest opportunity. The opportunity that we see in the United States is this enormous invested home and with trusted partners because you’re looking at strategic resilience, not only with the U.S. but with allies and partners.
This investment is going to be ramping up over the next five to 10 years. I don’t think we’ve internalized, really, the scale and the ambition that these instruments and this funding is actually going to provide for the companies. Most importantly, interacting with the government with shared objectives. We can’t really do this the same way that a country like China would, because our strategic advantage really is our capital markets, our private investors, our innovative capacity that we see coming from companies. So, a lot of the programs that are industrial policy in nature are really designed to catalyze and take advantage of this private sector ability to innovate and invest.
The U.S. isn’t always—I mean, the government isn’t always the first place that you would think of to actually want to do business or better your investment strategy, but there are a lot of opportunities in this on-shoring and friend-shoring initiative. We see it’s not just in the U.S. We’re seeing this happen in the EU. We’re seeing it happen in Japan, and it’s a combination of using subsidies and tax incentives and grants and subsidized loans and loan guarantees and credit enhancements and sort of all the tools we can put in the toolbox. The approach has been one where it’s ecosystems and hubs. You can look at the way that the U.S. is trying to roll out some of these funds in the hydrogen space, in the computing space, quantum space. It’s a really different approach than anything we’ve done in the past.
There is a huge, huge investment, a big boost in investment in basic scientific research. Really the biggest that we’ve seen in the past 70 years. If you’re looking to invest abroad, developing markets are very highly supported through a new and expanded U.S. development finance corporation. They use a lot of the same instruments I just talked about but they also make direct equity investments, and that’s something very different when you look at the Venn diagram concept. U.S. direct investment in equity is something that we really, we haven’t seen particularly outside of the U.S. So, I guess there’d be—there will be tensions about how this Venn diagram grows and managing industrial policy in a market economy, but I think it really—it’s not only necessary but I think it’s a trend to watch if this is going to end up growing over time.
Kornik: Yes, very interesting. That brings me to my last question. I think I might have heard a little bit of optimism in there, so I’m excited about that. First of all, thank you for your time today. You’ve been very generous with your time. I’m going to leave you with one final question, and I’m going to ask you if you’re optimistic that we’ll get this right. Are you optimistic that we’ll be living in a better world, let’s say, a decade from now? Take me out to 2035 and tell sort of what you see for the planet.
Crebo-Rediker: So, a decade from now, I would say on balance, with the right checks and balances. I see us living in a more dangerous, but I would say, overall, a better world. Given that you’re talking about 2035, I actually, I’m most hopeful because I think that the younger generation inheriting these challenges and opportunities is really well-placed to take the baton and move forward and make the most optimistic outcome that we could envision.
I’m, by nature, an optimist. I start there and I actually see this particularly in technology and innovation and the velocity of change.
What we’ll see between now and 2035, you have to really use your wildest imagination. We’ll see a revolution in drug development, in healthcare delivery, in education and manufacturing. We might see huge scientific breakthroughs in how to tackle climate change. So I think the innovation’s really boundless and I think it’s been democratized in terms of its accessibility to unlock human potential even with younger people right now leading the way.
That’s if we get it right. So, you can’t not look at the downside because the downside risks are pretty daunting. Particularly given our topic today, which is geopolitical risk. The potential for these risks to be exacerbated and for technology, in particular, to change the future of warfare, autonomous warfare, accelerate weapons of mass destruction and divide societies. The world is filled with bad actors, both state and non-state actors, and they have unparalleled access to data and to cyberweapons. We’re already capable of shutting down critical infrastructure. So, this is not necessarily even looking 10 years down the future, but you just have to project where this could go. So, again, ending on an optimistic note, because I do think that on balance we will end with a better future, but we have to manage the downside risks.
Kornik: Right. Well, Heidi, thank you so much for your time today. I really enjoyed our conversation. Thanks so much for those insights.
Crebo-Rediker: Thank you for the invitation this week.
Kornik: Thank you for watching the VISION by Protiviti interview. On behalf of Heidi Crebo-Rediker, I’m Joe Kornik, we’ll see you next time.
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Digitizing democracy: Former Estonian president on how e-government saved a struggling country
Digitizing democracy: Former Estonian president on how e-government saved a struggling country
Digitizing democracy: Former Estonian president on how e-government saved a struggling country
Toomas Ilves was president of Estonia from 2006 to 2016. He is renowned for making Estonia one of the most digitally advanced nations through innovative policies that invested heavily in the future. He is recognized as a global public sector digital transformation pioneer. Born in Sweden to Estonian refugees and raised in the United States, Ilves moved to Munich in 1984 to work for Radio Free Europe. He served as Estonia’s ambassador to the United States and Canada as well as Estonia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, successfully steering Estonia into the EU and NATO in 2004. Since leaving office in 2016, he’s been chair of the World Economic Forum’s Global Futures Council on Blockchain Technology and speaks to world leaders about the digitization of government and public services.
The need to digitize Estonia became clear to me in 1993—a year and a half after Estonia re-established its independence after 50 years of foreign occupation that left the country mired in poverty and backwardness. I believed digitization was ultimately the key to national development, both economic and social, of an impoverished country. Secondly, I realized that digitization, if done right, could be the great equalizer. It could help overcome the inherent problems of scale, or lack of it, in a rather small country, even by European standards.
The development aspect was simply a result of the damage done by the half century of military occupation of Estonia by the Soviets and Nazi Germany. Between mass repressions, harebrained economics and the suppression of initiative and freedom, countries throughout the communist bloc had stagnated, falling ever more behind as the liberal democracies of the West raced ahead. The newly democratic countries found themselves little more than developing countries when they re-emerged between 1989 and 1991.
Economic realities
The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe (Volume 2) contains a bar graph showing that in 1938, the last year before the onset of World War II, Estonia had a higher GDP per capita than Finland. In 1992, the first full year after the re-establishment of independence, Estonia’s GDP per capita was $2,800 U.S. dollars (USD). Our Northern neighbour was $23,800 USD, eight times higher.
Not only did the problem lie in a poor economy, low wages, and all of the unbuilt or shoddy, substandard infrastructure that was the legacy underdevelopment under Soviet occupation, Estonia also faced, like all undeveloped or developing countries, a particularly acute form of Zeno’s paradox of the race between Achilles and the tortoise. Whenever Achilles reached where the tortoise was, the tortoise had moved ahead. This is the problem poor countries face with economic growth. A spectacular annual growth rate of, say, 10% in Estonia would increase the country’s GDP per capita just $280 USD, while an anaemic 2% growth rate in Finland would yield an increase of $476 USD per capita.
While Western and Northern Europe had in the intervening half century continuously grown by leaps and bounds and led Eastern Europe by decades, occupied Estonia had remained stagnant. The question was, how could a poor, underdeveloped country grow quickly? How could Estonia level the playing field? How could it make up for a 50-year disadvantage?
The solution became apparent to me in 1993 when Mosaic, the first web browser, was introduced while I was Estonia's ambassador to the United States. Sir Tim Berners Lee had invented HTTP four years earlier, yet it was difficult to use. But when I bought (yes, bought!) Mosaic’s five floppy discs from my local Radio Shack in Washington, DC and uploaded them to my computer, I discovered the World Wide Web—and a new world, although at the time still limited, opened up for me.
Between mass repressions, harebrained economics and the suppression of initiative and freedom, countries throughout the communist bloc had stagnated, falling ever more behind as the liberal democracies of the West raced ahead. The newly democratic countries found themselves little more than developing countries when they re-emerged between 1989 and 1991.
An opportunity emerges
Far more important, however, was the realization that the World Wide Web had arrived and brought with it the opportunity for a country like Estonia to compete on a level playing field. The internet was so undeveloped at the time, but it had so much potential. So what if the U.S. or Germany were criss-crossed by eight-lane interstate highways and six-lane Autobahns and modern infrastructure? In 1993, all of us stood at the same starting position when it came to the internet. This was the moment when I began to press the Estonian government to pay serious attention to digitization.
A second source of inspiration to push the government to invest in digitization came from a book by Jeremy Rifkind, The End of Work, which argued that computerization would cause wide-spread unemployment when computers would eventually do the work of humans. Rifkind wrote of a Kentucky steel mill, which before automatization employed some 12,000 people. After automatization, Rifkind says the plant needed only 120 employees to produce the same amount of steel.
While this indeed may have been a problem in some sectors in the U.S., for Estonia and its tiny population of about 1.5 million size had always been a source of anxiety. Yet here was a solution: Through digitization done properly, size could become far less relevant a factor. If it digitized, Estonia could dramatically increase its functional size, if not its numerical size.
Fortunately, and promoted by then minister of education, Jaak Aaviksoo, the government adopted the Tiger Leap program, meant to bring access to computers as well as connectivity to all school districts. It launched in 1996, and by 1998 all schools in Estonia had computer labs and were already online. As the internet spread through societies and countries around the world, it had become clear to Estonian IT thinkers and developers that if we wanted to make the internet more than a place to shop from home, the system needed to be far more secure and manageable to the average Estonian.
Security, security, security
Obviously, the first issue was security. There’s a 1991 New Yorker cartoon where a dog sitting at a computer says to another dog, “On the internet, no one knows you’re a dog.” Already in the late 1990s, the standard e-mail-address-plus-password login system used to this day in most commercial online transactions was understood to be insecure and thus insufficient for any government or public service functions. Instead, we would need to offer two-factor authentication and end-to-end encryption, tied to a population registry that would ensure each person had a unique online identity. As a result, no one could impersonate you and you could trust the site you connected to.
for Estonia and its tiny population of about 1.5 million, size had always been a source of anxiety. Yet here was a solution: Through digitization done properly, size could become far less relevant a factor. If it digitized, Estonia could dramatically increase its functional size, if not its numerical size.
A second security issue was database architecture. Long before the 2015 Office of Personnel Management hack in the U.S. that saw the records of 23 million past and present employees, all stored in a single database, siphoned out by a foreign actor (including addresses and even the psychological profiles of CIA employees), Estonia opted for a distributed data exchange layer created at Tartu University. We call it the X-road, and it allows for data exchange between databases—regardless of format, platform, operating system or language—safely and securely as each transaction requires secure identification and/or authentication, with all transactions logged. The X-road is currently used in some 25 countries around the world today. It is an open-source platform that the Estonian government gives away for free to other governments to use and is now administered by an international non-profit called Nordic Institute for Interoperability Solutions (NIIS).
A final security aspect of the Estonian system deals with data integrity. While attention in digitization has been focused almost exclusively on data privacy, a far more important security issue is data integrity. If someone accesses and publishes my blood type, private correspondence, or my bank account, it is a violation of privacy, embarrassing perhaps but not dangerous. If someone alters my blood type record, correspondence or bank account, it is a violation of data integrity and can have fatal consequences. This is an aspect of digitization too few governments have addressed, unfortunately. Since 2008, all critical national and private data in Estonia (for example, healthcare records, court proceedings and property registries) have been on a permissioned blockchain using Keyless Signature Infrastructure, or KSI.
E-government problems…and solutions
The failure of the largest—and richest—Western countries to proceed with digitization amazes me. This was most starkly brought home to me after leaving office in 2016, when I moved to Stanford University to what is considered the capital of IT, Silicon Valley. Within a short drive from my office, you could find the headquarters of Tesla, Apple, Google, Facebook, YouTube and other billion-dollar companies.
Yet, when I tried to register my daughter to go to school, I found myself back in the paper world of the 1950s. I needed to take my electricity bill, both of our passports, something called a DS-2019 form certifying that I taught at Stanford, and my daughter’s paper vaccination certificates. After driving to the Board of Education headquarters, taking a number (literally), and waiting for 20 minutes, I was finally called to register her. The woman took all the papers, photocopied them for some fifteen minutes, returned all the documents and proceeded to fill out some forms by hand, taking all the relevant information from the photocopied documents.
This, in the citadel of the digital world in one of the wealthiest countries in the world. In Estonia, this would have taken 30 seconds. Why is this?
Americans are feeling increasingly “concerned, confused, and feeling lack of control over their personal information,” a recent Pew Research Center study concluded.
The first answer is fear of digital identity. For some reason, the U.S., like Germany, Japan and the UK, seems paralyzed by an irrational fear of a digital identity. People have driver’s licenses, social security cards and any number of other identity documents but for some reason, the government does not offer secure digital identities, even 20 years after Estonia pioneered the effort. (The U.S. Department of Defense introduced two-factor authentication for its employees 12 years after Estonia did for its citizens.)
Which gets to the biggest issue governments face in digitization: political will. It is easier and politically less risky to continue to live in the slow and inconvenient world of paper than in the digital world. After all, if you have never experienced the alternative, why change? As long as governments are afraid to offer citizens a secure digital identity, they will remain stuck in the previous centuries where only paper mattered.
Another obstacle to overcome: Thinking hardware is digitization. When a country does decide to digitize its government and public services, leaders too often think it is merely a matter of buying stuff: computers, servers, data banks and more. Just let some engineers hook it all up, and we’re digital. No! That is simply the hardware of the digital world.
If you want to digitize how the government serves its citizens, you need to think of the software, both literal and figurative. Laws are the software of society. So is the culture. How do you match up your digitization efforts with your legal system or with the cultural assumptions of your populace? What information should be private (medical records), what can be semi-private (tax records in your home country), and what can be public (property records in Estonia)?
Not a one-size-fits-all approach
Digitization is not a one-size-fits-all process. Advisors and experts may tell you that you need this kind of system or software, but digitization is never a turnkey project where all the work is done for you, as if you were building a bridge or a tunnel. It requires the active participation of all the key stakeholders—political leaders, lawmakers, public servants—to ensure the effort is appropriate for the culture and legal system of a country. There is no one-size-fits-all solution.
Finally, to effectively digitize a country, leaders need to realize how revolutionary it can be. Digitization will completely re-order how governance works as well as how to think about government. For as long as humans have lived in states, bureaucracies have been needed to run them. Yet, since bureaucracies (or just “governance”) were invented some 5,000 years ago, they have always operated as a serial or sequential process: A paper (or papyrus or parchment) is filled out, handed in, scrutinized, registered and approved…or not. And then proceeds to the next office.
For some reason, the U.S., like Germany, Japan and the UK, seems paralyzed by an irrational fear of a digital identity. People have driver’s licenses, social security cards and any number of other identity documents but for some reason, the government does not offer secure digital identities, even 20 years after Estonia pioneered the effort.
With the digitization of governance and government services, the mechanisms of running a country can be made a parallel process whereby the steps necessary to run the country occur simultaneously. Just to give one example: When a child is born in a paper-based society, it is typically up to the newborn’s parent to run a gauntlet of registering the birth, getting a birth certificate, obtaining health insurance, etc. In parallel processing, all of this can be done in one step since all these processes occur simultaneously.
Or to take a more odious example, there is no need to get one’s employer to mail you a copy of your annual wages or to calculate your deductions based on the number of children you have. All of this can be done more efficiently with digitization, leaving citizens to pursue more productive activities while the government itself works more efficiently, thus saving the tax-payer money.
And who wouldn’t want more efficiency and additional cost savings? In Estonia, we realized both cost-saving and time-saving for both citizens and government employees. We also saw an uptake in the use of services by citizens, including our e-voting system. In the last parliamentary elections, more than half—53%—of votes were cast electronically. Digitization strengthens democracy; we expect that number to grow over time.
We’re long past the point where digitization makes sense and are at a moment in time where it is essential to provide the services that are required in the modern world. When it comes to e-government, it’s time for the rest of the world to catch up to Estonia. The countries that do digitize their systems and services—and do it correctly—will realize the benefits and efficiencies all citizens deserve.
In the last parliamentary elections, more than half—53%—of votes were cast electronically. Digitization strengthens democracy; we expect that number to grow over time.