The past, present and future of the U.S. dollar with David Cowen, President and CEO of MoAF

The past, present and future of the U.S. dollar with David Cowen, President and CEO of MoAF

David Cowen, President and CEO of the Museum of American Finance, walks through a brief history of money in the United States—long before there was a U.S. dollar—from the museum’s historical collections, which were instrumental while Lin-Manuel Miranda was writing the Broadway musical “Hamilton.”

In this interview:

1:10 - A walk through the museum

10:02 - What would Alexander Hamilton and the founding fathers think of U.S. debt?

12:59 - Declining U.S. credit rating

14:20 - The future of the U.S. dollar


Read transcript

The past, present and future of the U.S. dollar with David Cowen, President and CEO of MOAF

Joe Kornik: Welcome to the VISION by Protiviti interview. I’m Joe Kornik, Editor-in-Chief of VISION by Protiviti, our global content resource examining big themes that will impact the C-suite and executive boardrooms worldwide. Today, we’re exploring the future money and I’m thrilled to have David Cowen, the president and CEO of the Museum of American Finance, join me today. David is going to walk us through a brief history of money in the United States, or what would become the United States way before we even had the U.S. dollar. The museum has amazing historical collections from those days, and David will be sharing those in just a moment. The Museum of American Finance, by the way, was a big source of historical reference for Lin-Manuel Miranda when he was writing Hamilton. Following David’s presentation, I’m going to ask him a few questions about a very uncertain financial future. So, David, thank you so much for being here, and let me turn it over to you to begin.

David Cowen: Joe, what a pleasure to be back here with our friends at Protiviti. We’re going to be talking a little bit about money, as you know. As the museum, if you don’t know where you’ve been, how do you know where you’re going? So, we want to turn the clock back just a little bit to set the stage for a flavor of what money was at the beginning of our country, trace it very quickly to today, and then maybe we will do that little Q&A you mentioned about.

The first thing to talk about is the Revolutionary War. We’re not a country yet, but under the Articles of Confederation, the 13 states are banded together, and take a look at this note. By the way, all of these are from the museum’s collection. We have literally, thousands of documents. This is paper, this is money, and it’s dated the 10th of May 1775. This is the first day of the Second Continental Congress. The fighting started a few weeks earlier, April 19th, Lexington and Concord. But what does your Continental Congress do on the very first day? They turn on the printing presses.

This is very elaborate. Let’s take a quick look at this. It’s got some marbling, which is attributed to Ben Franklin, who was a printer, of course, and its anti-counterfeiting. And there’s always these Latin words of encouragement. This one means “energy,” and then this is in Spanish milled dollars. We don’t have U.S. dollar at this point, but you could potentially turn this in for some Spanish coins. By the way, foreign coins are going to be legal tender in the United States until 1857. It’s not until those gold rushes where we get enough of domestic source of gold, and then eventually, silver, that we have our own currency backed by our own gold and silver. On the back, it’s quite elaborate. I like this where it anticipates the fighting. That’s a Latin for “homes will cease to be quiet.”

But it’s not just the Continental Congress that’s issuing money. This is a note from Georgia. And in Georgia, you can take a look here, that it’s backed not by gold or silver or something like that, silver in the case of the Continental, but by money arising from the grabbing of the states that were loyal to the crown. You needed to have something backing your currency. Well, that’s all well and good, but unfortunately, we lose Savannah, and so what was backing this currency isn’t going to be there. So, it’s states as well as our nation, which is issuing currency. The problem with this is there’s hyperinflation at that time. It’s not just Germany. When I went to school, we learned about the textbooks and the wheelbarrow’s worth of money to buy a loaf of bread. It’s happening right here in the United States. That Continental currency I showed you, is going to depreciate and sell like a penny or two pennies on a dollar, giving Americans a terrible aversion to paper money. By the way, this inflation is so bad, George Washington writes a letter in the middle of the war saying, “A wagonful worth of money won’t buy a wagonful worth of provisions.” So, who is going to straighten all of this out? Well, we become a nation officially, April 30, 1789. George Washington takes the oath of office in New York City, and then he brings on Alexander Hamilton to be the secretary of the treasury. He’ll be in the office for six years. He’s going to write three monumental state papers. He’s going to write others, but let’s focus on three really quickly.

The first is the report on public credit. That is going to straighten out and untangle all the leftover debt from the Revolutionary War. It’s the first-grade bailout, because we’re going to assume not just the Continental Congress’s debt, but all the state debt, and reassure a new U.S. debt, U.S. securities, of which there was a direct line to today’s national debt. The second one is to create a quasi-central bank, a central regulating monitory authority, and that is accomplished for 20 years. The third is to establish the U.S. dollar, and at that time, set it against certain levels of gold and silver. All of these have to get through Congress. Some of them have big fights, the room where it happened, the rap from the musical Hamilton, is about that whole assumption of the debts, but they all do pass.

But because we have this aversion to government-issued paper at that time, who’s issuing it? Most people don’t realize that it’s banks initially, from the start of our country, all the way through the depression, and then the government will get back involved a little bit later during the Civil War, but initially, it’s the banks that are issuing the currency. We have several notes here, a $1.00, a $2.00, and a $3.00 from the Bank of New York, which by the way, today, is still in existence as BNY Mellon. You can see that it was individual banks throughout the country issuing. Now, that was fine if you were in New York with your note, but what if you were traveling outside of New York, the Philly or Charleston? These notes will depreciate, and there would be registers and books, and they can also be counterfeited. A very messy situation, because you wouldn’t get a full dollar on a dollar if you were in another town. The next one though shows you that that first Bank of the United States—by the way, in its day, called the Bank of the United States, but looking back, because there was a second Bank of the United States, the second quasi-central bank, issued notes as well. This was the main circulating medium, because they had branches, eight of them, eventually, throughout the country. So, you could bring notes of that bank and they wouldn’t necessarily be depreciated if you brought a Boston note, let’s say, to New York or to Philadelphia. But that was also a government-owned only 20%, 80% by the public, so again, a quasi-bank that acted as a central bank.

Moving forward quickly to currency in the Civil War, this is where the government gets back into the business of printing currency. If you see the back, it’s all green, and that’s where the phrase “greenbacks” come from. Now, this particular note was not backed by gold or silver, but you’re going to see quickly that we do get back on the gold standard, but for the issues and problems of the war we have to get off gold. Here is a bank from Kansas issuing a $2.00 note. This is called the lazy deuce because the $2.00 is on its side. All the banks could still issue after the Civil War, but they had to hold 90% reserves at the Treasury Department.

Moving along. So, when the government also starts issuing, you can get Goldback or Silverback notes. Here’s an example where you could go back to the treasury, gold and silver are set at certain amounts, and you could turn your note in for specific amounts of gold or silver. But that’s all going to change once the depression hits. Now, remember, Franklin Delano Roosevelt comes into office, the Great Depression’s in full swing, there’s the initial bank holiday. Most people don’t realize that banks, all of them, closed for 100 days. There was a lack of money around, very difficult time, but there were so many bank failures that was in extreme measure that was taken. The second extreme measure most people don’t realize is all your gold was confiscated. This is for individuals who would have to line up then and turn your gold into the treasury, because if you didn’t, there were very severe fines for that. By the way, this is going to be rescinded in the mid ’70s under the Ford administration, and that’s why we all now can own gold. The other thing to know about those that the banks now are stopped out, they can’t issue their own currency, it’s all going to be by the government. One of the things to note was there were high-denomination bills back then. These are $500.00 and $1.000.00 bills. These were all stopped in particular because of the black market, the drug trade, to make it much harder to move cash around.

So, that’s your rolling tour, Joe, of how we get to today and our current currency. I’m happy to field your questions now about any of these topics.

Kornik: Thanks, David, for that walkthrough of historical America and the origins of money and the origins of the U.S. dollar, the treasury. Fascinating stuff. I know the museum does a great work. It has all kinds of great information, a lot more than even what you shared here with us in that presentation.

Cowen: Yes. Joe, that was one of the quickest, if not, the quickest tour of all currency I’ve ever done.

Kornik: Yes. I’ve seen you do it and it’s much longer, but I appreciate you scaling it back for us here. David, I just wanted to ask you. I mean, you talked about the past, I wanted to push this forward a little bit and talk about the future. But first, I’d like to just know, what do you think Alexander Hamilton would think of the state of our national debt right now?

Cowen: Hamilton, as we’ve mentioned, created this national debt, and he actually said the phrase, “A national debt, if it is not excessive, will be a national blessing.” By the way, his detractors often take out that middle line, “if it’s not excessive,” just to blame him for the debt. But in my opinion, he’d be spinning in his grave at this massive $33-odd trillion worth of debt.

Kornik: Right. What about the deficits that we’ve grown and accustomed to? I mean, it’s the highest ever outside of war time that we’re running right now. What do you think the Founding Fathers would think about that?

Cowen: Let’s contextualize a little about how much this really is. If we could bring up our debt clock, you can see that we’re currently at some $33-odd trillion dollars’ worth of debt, closing in on a $100,000.00 per citizen, and $258,000 per taxpayer. This is an incredible load of debt. So, the question is really, though, okay, can we service this debt? What are the ways to lower this debt? We’re at really extreme levels, 120%, roughly. It’s 123% of the federal debt. There’s several ways—the least appealing, of course, and that we don’t want to talk about is you could default on the debt, right? That’s a disaster and just a horrible scenario. You can raise taxes. That’s one way to get it down, but that’s a political hot potato. You can lower spending, equally a political hot potato, or the ideal one is to potentially grow your way out of it. That is the preferred scenario that maybe we get the economy cooking or chugging along at such a great pace that we’re able to help do that. The problem now is we’re in a rising interest rate environment. The highest level since roughly 2007. So, when the nation’s debt becomes due, we’re refunding it, refinancing it at a much higher level. We’re at 1%-1.5%, and now we’re closing in on 4.75%-5%. That spells trouble down the road.

Kornik: Right. And I should mention, we’re recording this in early October 2023. By the time some folks watch this, that debt unfortunately will be higher. [Laughter] Most likely, it will not be going down. It’ll only be getting larger.

Cowen: Joe, right. What we’ve witnessed in Washington lately is not a forum for getting together on ideas and moving forward.

Kornik: Right. So, David, how concerned shall we be, I mean, that could potentially, you mentioned, default. How concerned shall we be about the downgrading of the U.S. credit rating? Because we’ve seen that a few times.

Cowen: We have, most recently by Fitch, but they were just catching up to a dozen years ago when S&P made the original downgrade, and Fitch cited the two concerns you and I just talked about. They said governance and then they also said the rising interest rate environment. At the level it is, it’s still AA+, roughly, but it is scary if we start to go through more downgrades, but everything is relative, and therefore, what are your other options? By the way, the states are also awash in debt. They are equally profligate in what they have issued. Some states are a little better than others. As far as just saying though, default, just because we are mentioning it. Most people don’t realize that states had defaulted in the nation’s history in the 1840s. Several states with a bad economy defaulted. We certainly know municipalities and cities have. The United States, though, never has, never missed an interest payment, hasn’t done that, and we certainly pray that that never happens.

Kornik: David, what impact do you think the things that you’ve been discussing, that deficits and credit ratings could have on the future of the U.S. dollar status as the world’s reserve currency, and where do things stand, and what could theoretically happen if the dollar does lose some of its dominance?

Cowen: Let’s take a look a bit of a last part first, in a sense that some people will say, “Well, the U.S. dollar has lost some of its preeminence. It’s been devalued.” Why? Well, if you take a look from Alexander Hamilton’s day, $1.00 is worth $20.00 of gold. Now, $1.00, it’s $1800.00 worth of gold. So, you had a 90 times devaluation. People like Jim Grant of Jim Grant’s Interest Rate Observer say, “Hey, back in 1933 when we went off the gold standard, that’s actually a default.” But to really dig into this, you’ve got to say, are there other relative options? And certainly, nations that aren’t friendly to us would certainly like to replace the dollar. But remember, it’s so intertwined also with the international banking system, free capital flows, and if you look at what potentially could replace it, the Chinese renminbi? They don’t have free capital flows. Are you going to get involved with a country like that? Crypto has all sorts of its own problems. Gold, as we know, is just not elastic enough for this type of modern economy. So, while there all sorts of pressures on the U.S. dollar, I don’t see a viable alternative in the near future here.

Kornik: Yes, interesting. And I’m sure that there are business leaders who are watching this will be happy to know that, because certainly, they are rooting for stability and not chaos in global monetary systems.

So, David, you’ve taken us back a few hundred years today and we appreciate that, but I’d like to look forward. I won’t ask you to go out 200 years, [Laughter] but how about a decade or even a little further? Any thoughts on where we’ll be as a country, as a financial system in the year 2035 or maybe even 2040? Any thoughts?

Cowen: Well, I don’t have a crystal ball other than a look at history. The British, the pound, was supreme for about 150 years, with an inflection point roughly around World War I or so. If we use that as our guide, add a 150 years-ish on to the U.S. dollar, what does that give us? Roughly, another 30, 40 years or so of U.S. dollar. So, my best guess, and that’s all it is, is that old Mark Twain quote, “The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.” So, let’s all hope that’s the case for several decades to come.

Kornik: David, thank you so much for that look back and that look forward. I really enjoyed our conversation today. Fascinating stuff.

Cowen: Thanks a lot.

Kornik: And thank you for watching the VISION by Protiviti interview. For David Cowen, I’m Joe Kornik. We’ll see you next time.

Close transcript

David Cowen has been the Museum of American Finance’s President and CEO since 2009. Under his leadership, the museum has created two dozen rotating exhibits, instituted a free finance academy for high-school students and led board growth from 10 to 40 members. He holds a BA from Columbia College, an MBA from the Wharton School of Business, and an MA and Ph.D. in American history from NYU. He has written extensively on U.S. financial history and is the co-author of Alexander Hamilton on Finance, Credit, and Debt and Financial Founding Fathers: The Men Who Made America Rich. He is a founding Co-Chair of the International Federation of Finance Museums (IFFM) and has served on the Smithsonian Affiliates Advisory Council and the Federal Reserve Board’s Centennial Advisory Council.

David Cowen
President, MOAF
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Joe Kornik is Director of Brand Publishing and Editor-in-Chief of VISION by Protiviti, a content resource focused on the future of global megatrends and how they’ll impact business, industries, communities and people in 2030 and beyond. Joe is an experienced editor, writer, moderator, speaker and brand builder. Prior to leading VISION by Protiviti, Joe was the Publisher and Editor-in-Chief of Consulting magazine. Previously, he was chief editor of several professional services publications at Bloomberg BNA, the Nielsen Company and Reed Elsevier. He holds a degree in Journalism/English from James Madison University.

Joe Kornik
Editor-in-Chief, VISION by Protiviti
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Innovation versus regulation and the future of digital banking with Blockchain Coinvestors CEO

Innovation versus regulation and the future of digital banking with Blockchain Coinvestors CEO

Audio file

In this VISION by Protiviti podcast, Protiviti’s Lata Varghese, Managing Director, Digital Assets and Blockchain Solutions lead, interviews Matthew Le Merle, Managing Partner and CEO of Blockchain Coinvestors, which he launched in 2014 with the goal of providing broad coverage of the fastest growth blockchain companies and crypto projects. In this discussion, Lata and Matthew talk about the roles of government and the private sector in innovation, regulation, technology and the infrastructure upgrades required for the coming digital revolution. They also discuss the future of the U.S. dollar and what the financial future looks like over the next decade and beyond.

In this discussion:

0:56 – Who is Blockchain Coinvestors?

2:37 – The world’s financial infrastructure and the move to digital

6:14 – Setting up the conditions for innovation

8:40 – Providing regulatory clarity

13:44 – The race for digital dominance

19:50 – Can you standardize innovation?

25:40 – Positioning of the U.S. dollar

30:35 – The state of money in 2035


Read transcript

Innovation versus regulation and the future of digital banking with Blockchain Coinvestors CEO

Joe Kornik: Welcome to the VISION by Protiviti podcast. I'm Joe Kornik, Editor-in-Chief of VISION by Protiviti, our global content resource examining big themes that will impact the C-suite and executive boardrooms worldwide. Today, we're exploring the future of money. And I'm excited to welcome in Matthew Le Merle, managing partner and CEO of Blockchain Coinvestors, which he launched in 2014 with the goal of providing broad coverage of the fastest growth blockchain companies and crypto projects. I'm pleased to turn over today's podcast to my colleague, Protiviti Managing Director, Digital Assets and Blockchain Solutions, Lata Varghese. Lata, I'll turn it over to you to begin.

Lata Varghese: Thank you, Joe. And Matthew, thank you so much for joining the podcast today.

Matthew Le Merle: Great. It's great to be here, Lata. And I'm looking forward to speaking to your audience and to your questions.

Varghese: Sure. As we dive in now, Blockchain Coinvestors might be unfamiliar to some of our listeners. And, in fact, the whole space of blockchain investing might need a little more explanation. So, can you tell us a little bit more about it and your role at Blockchain Coinvestors?

Le Merle: Yes, I'm happy to. So, along with Alison Davis, I'm the founder of Blockchain Coinvestors. We had been investing in internet and fintech here in Silicon Valley for about 20 or 20-plus years. And about 10 years ago, we saw those two innovations converging on something new. And so, the internet and fintech came together to create something called Bitcoin, which was put on top of an innovation called blockchain. And we were very taken by the arrival of the world's first digital money that worked at scale. And there are some very important reasons why we thought that that was a transformative moment.

So, we pivoted to be 100% focused on investing in blockchain. And we've done that ever since. We're the leading and most diversified funder funds in the world in early stage blockchain investing. And so, that's what we focus on. We've backed more than 800 blockchain companies and projects at this point in Europe, North America and Asia. And we do not trade. So, just to make that clear, we're early-stage venture investors, but we are not public liquid crypto traders.

Varghese: Great. And I know Blockchain Coinvestors’ position is that the move to digital money’s, commodities and assets is pretty inevitable. And in order for all that to happen, really, all of the world's financial infrastructure must be upgraded. Now, in your view, Matthew, how does that happen? Like, who leads this effort? Is it public, private sector? If I look back at how the internet adoption was driven by a large part by government investment and mandates, and enterprises had the pull factor in past computing cycles, right? So, who does the heavy lifting for all of this to occur, right?

Le Merle: So, you just said something there, which isn't quite my memory. I believe that the rollout of digital communications and content on a global basis wasn't driven by governments at all. It was driven by innovators, and the world's most innovative companies, including, of course, the world's most valuable companies of today—the Apples, Microsofts, Amazons, Googles, Facebook, Alibabas, Ten Cents, Baidu's—those were the companies that brought digital communications and content to us. It actually took a while for the incumbents, the large telcos, the large media companies to embrace the internet. And in fact, if you go back to the 90s, most of them were resisting it, they didn't want it. Blockbuster famously told us all that we didn't need downloadable content at all, we could just go to a local Blockbuster store and pick up a CD or a DVD and they had a store on every corner.

So, my remembrance is that innovation is always driven primarily by disruptive innovative companies. And the large incumbents take a while to come on board. And in fact, they resist innovation because innovation disrupts their current ways of doing business and making money.

And so, now talking about blockchain or the digitalization, as you said, of money's assets and commodities, I think it will be exactly the same. I think the most important breakthroughs of this moment are being driven by the innovators. And that could be Coinbase, that could be Anchorage, that could be Tether and Circle. And then the incumbents, some of them are working very hard to catch up. And that's why PayPal has announced its stablecoin and why Citibank has just announced it will be using tokenization to drive payment transfers for its customers. But the majority of the world's banks and payment companies will be trying to slow all of this down in this timeframe because they're not ready for it.

And then governments, the role of government is always to create pro innovation regulation, in my opinion, since innovation is the driver of jobs, GDP, and economic growth in every economy of the world. And any economy and any government that purposefully tries to slow down innovation, always regrets it later. They discover that they lose ground on a global basis and they end up not capturing the jobs and the GDP growth, if they proactively try and slow down innovation, and that's just the way it always is. And I could be talking about life sciences, I could be talking about clean energy, I could be talking about enterprise software. It's true across all areas of innovation.

Varghese: Yes, thank you for that clarifying comment. Really, I think my question was about government setting the conditions for innovation to occur with active investments also in infrastructure and other related things, right? Of course, the companies are the ones who innovate, but you do need the innovation set up to be—set up in a way where companies can actually act with conviction that their products and services can get deployed in the market.

Le Merle: Yes. Well, so I—no, I don't agree. Governments do not create the backbone or the innovation infrastructure upon which innovators build. Time after time, what we actually see is governments waste enormous amounts of money, billions and billions of dollars on infrastructure that we end up not using. And if all they would do would be to get out of the way and set pro innovation regulation, the private sector makes it happen. And so, Tesla put in the fast-charging infrastructure of America at this point, and the government didn't do it. They could have done it, by the way, the government could have simply said that every transportation node in America should have fast electronic electrical supercharging in it, because of course, at the federal, state and local level, we do have a lot of transportation agencies in America; cars, trains, planes, and auto, etc., but they didn't do it. And so, Tesla's had to build it and others are now trying to catch up. And I'm just using that as an example. I don't think government is good at innovating. I don't think large established companies are that good at innovating—a few of them are. I think that innovative companies are very good at innovating, and then the rest of us figure out later how to take those inventions. And when I say the rest of us, I mean, established companies, figure out later how to take those innovations and embed them in their own businesses. And I think that's okay. I think the process of innovation has to be driven by people and companies that are unencumbered by other distractions. And government agencies are just not that good at innovation.

Varghese: Right. And their job is to provide the regulatory clarity so that innovators can do what they're doing.

Le Merle: Yes, preferably we prefer that, but it's difficult and I appreciate that. It's very difficult for a regulator to both maintain regulation of today's industries, businesses and activities, whilst at the same time, trying to figure out what a new body of innovative regulation would be for a future that hasn't yet occurred. And so, we always have that tension. Our preference is, as you say, Lata. I mean, as investors in innovation, we prefer to have regulatory clarity, but we also appreciate that that's very hard. The thing we don't want ever is anti-innovation regulation, right? So, if I had a choice between anti-innovation regulation, pro-innovation regulation, or regulatory confusion and lack of clarity, I would pick two out of three. The one I wouldn't pick would be anti-innovation regulation. And unfortunately—well, fortunately, in the internet years—America was a leader in creating pro-innovation regulation.

Right now, every other jurisdiction in the world is leading in establishing pro-innovation regulation for digital moneys, commodities and assets. And unfortunately, in America, we have a small number of people who believe that we should be killing this innovation. And they are a small minority of people, but they're working very hard to create anti-innovation regulation. And it's holding America back. And it's actually putting America on the wrong side of this innovation, which is very unfortunate. America has always been an innovation leader. America has also been the world's financial leader. And the danger here is that we end up being neither innovative nor a financial leader. And financial services is probably America's most important industry.

Varghese: You make some fair points there, it's just that the space is inherently complex, you're trying to upgrade infrastructure. And without clarity, it just kind of slows down the innovation a fair bit and incumbents who have their regulatory moats, protecting their existing businesses, find a little more time to sort of adapt, adopt, because this is we're talking about financial services and highly regulated industries.

Le Merle: So, in terms of corporate strategy, for many companies that are not very innovative, a good strategy is to try and slow down the external environment, because they don't have the ability to compete. So, I do understand that there are incumbents that would like to slow down innovation, but at the level of national economic strategy, i.e., at the level of the country, the United States, the EU v. China, for example, it's never a good strategy to be slow on innovation. And we know that, so if we can go back decades or even hundreds of years, and we can show the most innovative countries captured the lion's share of the global economic trade and value.

And so, in terms of the competitiveness of nations, you have to be pro-innovation, there is no alternative. And so, at the level of America, we have to be pro-innovation. And along the way, we have 5,000 banks in America, not all of those 5,000 banks will survive because they won't be able to keep up. And we've seen that in other countries that have many fewer banks. We have very large nations that have 20 and 30 banks, not 5,000 banks. So, I'm using that as an example. The fallout of innovation, especially global digital innovation, is that industries become larger, economies of scale and scope get larger, but we also have concentration. And concentration means some people fail. Within blockchain, specifically, we have a lot of disruptive companies moving fast in countries around the world. We have a few very large, innovative companies, and I'll use PayPal as an example, that are moving very fast. And then we have an awful lot of incumbents that are nervous and are trying to slow everything down. And I guess my bottom line is what I've already said, which is, if I was running the UK, the U.S., the EU, Switzerland, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Singapore, Hong Kong, I would be passing pro-innovation regulation right now for digital moneys, commodities and assets.

Varghese: Absolutely. So, clearly, the underlying innovation for the blockchain, underlying Bitcoin, that led to all of this transformation of money and that will bring about a sea change in how we transact digitally as businesses, governments, people—granted, right?—but because it is so complex as money says a lot of options, the race for that digital currency dominance is on. So, there's Bitcoin, there's central bank digital currencies, there's tokenized commercial bank deposits, which almost is a reaction from the banks to the innovation. And as you quoted, the IUSD stablecoin launched now. All this, Matthew, to me seems to suggest that it is a transformative change in payment options, but then if you have one option, why can't you have multiple options? So, do we go back to the world of private tokenized money or probably sort of trading differently deflecting the credit quality of the banks issuing them? How do you see all of this evolve? Because it's something as complex as money and value.

Le Merle: Yes, it's a great question. And there's multiple components within that. So, for your audience, let's just unbundle it a bit. The first question—and I'm a bit of a fundamentalist around consumers and consumer benefits—so, let's just start there first. If we went back to the year 2000, and all of your listeners thought about how they did communications, how they got and shared and stored their information and how they did their financial transactions and investments. And now, if they thought about this year, 2023, and how they do all of those same things, and then if they rated them by speed, cost, accessibility, and ease, what you'd discover—everyone on this listening to this would discover—is that their communications and their information sharing have become dramatically better. The consumer benefit is demonstrable. It's almost real-time. It's almost no cost. It's ubiquitous. When Google told us they would make the world's information available to all of us in real-time at no cost, we didn't believe them, but they did. And not just them, obviously, a host of others. So, the consumer benefit has been demonstrable. And we all have benefited from it. And every industry and business has changed.

Now look at commerce, finance and investing, it hasn't changed much at all. We basically use the same approach to taking a loan, paying with a credit card, transferring money internationally, it's slow, it's expensive, it's painful. We have to answer telephone calls to confirm wire transfers. It takes a week. Our investments don't settle in t-zero, they settle in three days and four days. And if we want to buy a house, it can take 90 days just to complete the mortgage and the title transfer.

So, the financial industry has not provided consumer benefit in the last 20 years in a substantial way. And so, you have to begin there. And then you have to say, “Well, okay, how did we create that consumer benefit in digital communications and content?” And it wasn't centralized. It was diverse and decentralized. One day, you had Hotmail or you had Yahoo Mail, or you had Google Mail, and there were many of them and they were competing. But they were all better than you writing a letter, putting a stamp on it and giving it to the post office. And you started exploring with, “Oh, my gosh, I can communicate to people I want in almost real-time. And this is strange. They're not charging me anything. They're showing me an advertisement which I'm not sure if I like it or don't like it, but it's free. I'm getting free global communications. What's that about?”

When we digitalize moneys, do we think we'll have more or less? And will they be central bank only or will the private sector play? And how will that play out? And I guess my expectation will be, it will be a process of disruptive innovation. It will start out with more, and then some things will win, and we'll end up with fewer. The process of innovation is chaotic, confused, decentralized and disruptive. And then over time, we begin to figure out who the winners are, and we have less. So, I'm expecting the same thing. And I'd like to think that the digital dollar is a winner, and that we'll have both central bank digital dollar perhaps, but I'm expecting we'll have private sector digital dollars. And my bet is that they'll be issued by big banks and other financial players, but maybe there'll be a role for Circle and Tether as well. And the regulators will have to set the rules of the game. But if the regulators say there will be no digital dollars, they're throwing the baby out with the bathwater because the digital dollar is, from a consumer benefit perspective, it's real-time, low-cost and easy to use. That's why so many people are using Circle and Tether. They are superior ways of transferring money. Bank of America says the invention of the stablecoin is the greatest invention in the history of money. And it's because it is real-time, low-cost, easy to use money that can operate on a global scale. And that's the holy grail of payments.

Varghese: Right. And because payments and transactions are moving across, so don't you then think that having some standardization on how these digital dollars, or types of it, is created is important because it's almost like if every bank has its own sort of ways in which this is ledgered or on crypto rail, so to say, a digital dollar, if there are different points of view on how that should get created, then what does it fundamentally sort of solve in terms of an efficiency play?

Le Merle: Yes, but you see, you can't standardize innovation. That's the equivalent—if in the Betamax-VHS moment, the government had said, “Okay, we're going to pick a standard,” which one would they have chosen? The answer was Betamax. Betamax was the superior technology. So, from an objective perspective, if you had chosen to stop innovation in that moment, we would all be on Betamax and we wouldn't never have had CDs, DVDs, or downloadable content because we would have made rigid a set of standards that said the chosen way of storing and sharing data is on Betamax tape. And governments make that mistake all the time—you can't set a standard in a moment of time when you have rapid innovation occurring because the next innovation may be superior to anything you understand today.

I think that standards are very dangerous in a world of innovation. I think that what a regulator has to do is to create a dynamic, flexible regulatory structure that provides some clarity, but still permits additional waves of innovation, and it's very difficult. So, what does that look like? Right now, what that means is what MiCA is, it's what the UK and the Swiss have done as well, other geographies are doing, which is you need a market structure bill, which basically sort of says, “We believe the shape of the industry is the following. We think the shape of the innovations is likely to be the following. And we think the likely participants of it is supposed to be the following. And we'll set some guidelines around that.” And then you need some specific clarity around definitions of what we're going to be building, which I believe digital moneys, you can call those stablecoins, if you wish. The stablecoin is a little bit of a bad name because they don't have to be stable to be digital moneys, so, that's a bit odd, but call it stablecoins. And then you need some frame of reference for digital assets. What are digital assets? And what is the process of tokenization and where do you draw the line? And Gensler was asked in Congress, he was asked, “Is a Pokémon card a security?” And he said, “No, it's not.” And then he was asked, “If I tokenize a Pokémon card, is that a security?” And he said, “I need more information.” Well, he's the regulator. So, he needs to set out the digital asset, a regulatory framework that draws the parameters. A Pokémon card is not a security, a digitalized tokenized ownership record for a Pokémon card doesn't make it a security. But if it's bundled up into an investment contract, and you're selling a large batch of Pokémon cards, and you're guaranteeing a financial return, you cross some lines, right? I mean, I can turn a Pokémon card into a security if I say certain things about it. That clarity—market structure, what's a digital money, what's a digital asset—most financial centers in the world are putting that in place. And so, that's what the UK has done, Switzerland's done, Europe's done, or at least they're close to finishing. Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Singapore, now Hong Kong, are moving very quickly to clarify those parameters.

Varghese: I don't disagree at all, Matthew, my only pushback would be if that standard is slow in emerging and if different forms of innovation come, then the efficiency that is touted by having money that moves across ledgers, both private public ledgers is able to transfer as a digital asset, where the asset is intelligent. It just takes a little more time and then there's a whole lot of other existing world processes slapped onto this, then I think it also adds cost on the infrastructure side, right?

Le Merle: Yes. Yes. So, I agree with that but that's why earlier on, I told you, I would take pro-innovation, dynamic regulation first. And then I would take no regulation and regulatory lack of clarity second because that still permits innovators to innovate. And the worst thing is anti-innovation regulation, which kills—throws the baby out with the bathwater. And the issue with that is that the world's a big place and there’s many jurisdictions. So, the danger of anti-innovation regulation is that all the innovators go somewhere else, and you lose your competitiveness of nations. And unfortunately, America is losing its competitiveness in this race to be the future of the financial system. I want America to be the global innovator and I know that we have to be the global financial hub. And if we lose the dominance of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency, I think that we have very serious issues because we have an enormous deficit, we rely upon other people to buy our treasury securities. And if they don't want to hold dollars, we're in a very bad place.

Varghese: You actually answered the question I was going to ask you directly that do you see that rise of all these other currencies impact the U.S. dollar’s positioning as the world's reserve currency?

Le Merle: How could it make sense for China—to use China as an example—how could it make sense for China to do all of its global trade in dollars? Because China does about 30 to 35% of the world's exports, and I believe about 15 to 20% of the world's GDP. And when China trades with Brazil, Brazil's denominated in reals, and China uses renminbi or yuan, so wouldn't it make sense for, when China gives billions of dollars to Brazil, Brazil buys billions of dollars of Chinese equipment, China buys billions of dollars of commodities and Brazil buys billions of dollars of finished products from China, that they would not be denominated in dollars. They would be netted out at the level of the nation on a ledger that China and Brazil would have between the two of them. And they would maybe denominate it in real, but realistically, they would denominate it in Chinese currency. So, it would not pass through the dollar. I mean, that obviously makes sense, but the state of the world for the last 75 years, since we went off the gold standard at Bretton Woods, is that we have actually denominated Chinese global trade in US dollars, and it passes to a large extent on the Swift network. And if you're the head of the Chinese government, or the Chinese Ministry of Finance, you're going to say, “I can't have that. It's a question of national security because I just saw the U.S. turn off swift for the Russians, as an example. So, I need—as a matter of national security—I need an alternative way to transact with Brazil, all right?”

So, now you just roll that forward, and you sort of say, “Can we sit…”—“we” being Americans now— “Can we sit on our laurels and presume that the U.S. dollar and the US dollar international remittance system will always be used by everyone?” And the answer is no, we can't presume that. So, now it's about competitiveness. Now it's about—well, if the if the U.S.-based global remittance system was fast, cheap and easy to use, would it have the right to win in international trade? And the answer might be yes. But on the other hand, if it is slow, costly and hard to access, then of course people would abandon it in favor of digitalized, faster, better approaches.

And so, I come back to the earlier point, which is China, and Russia, and the euro and the EU, as examples, are preparing digitalized versions of monetary systems. And if the U.S. presumes that it can kill all that innovation, and just say, “You have to stick with dollar on Swift and you have to answer your telephone call when someone calls you up to confirm the transfer,” that we're going to lose.

Varghese: So, that potentially might be what worries you about this digitized future where the U.S. is not leading with pro-innovation regulation because then that digital channels and corridors of trade across the world are happening in other digital currencies, which the U.S. doesn't have to be in the middle, sort of, establishing trust.

Le Merle: Yes. Well, I do worry about it, but not as much as you might think because I do believe that American software engineers are the best in the world, and they consistently have demonstrated that. Now I do think there's a lot of great innovators in other places, in Europe, in Asia. There are many in India—there are many places in the world where there are great software engineers who know how to write great code. But America has been, and I believe still is, the world's greatest concentration of talent. And all we're really saying is “Government, please help us continue to maintain…”—we're early-stage venture investors. So, just to be clear, we back hundreds and hundreds of blockchain engineers that want to build software on top of distributed ledger technology and innovation. And they do great things with it. And those great things, on the one hand, some of them are well known like Coinbase and Kraken, and a lot of them you've never heard of, and they're coming fast.

Varghese: Absolutely. So, zooming up, taking out a decade or more to 2035. What can we expect? Any bold predictions?

Le Merle: Yes. Well, I don't feel that they're bold predictions, Lata but I think that this is the vision. Just go back to 2000. Remember how you did your communications and how you shared information and the devices you used and the formats you used. You were still probably using tapes, you may have transitioned to CDs and DVDs, you were using email, but it was not that great. Roll forward to today—I mean, don't forget the Apple iPhone wasn't even invented until the end of the zeros and we didn't have iTunes or apps until the end of the zeros. So, a lot of the innovation that we take for granted today is a relatively recent invention. That's called real-time free communications. It's easy to do, it's easy to use, and so is the same of every other content-based industry today.

Well, imagine that financial services was the same. What would that look like? And what it would look like was, you can transfer money to anyone in real-time, and you don't have to pay anything for payments. I think payments will become free. There won't be any friction. Retailers will not be complaining because they have a 3 or 4% margin and they have to pay one or 2% to MasterCard or Visa each time they enable the transaction. They won't be paying anything for payments, payments will be free, it'll be ubiquitous, it'll be real-time.

But then think about investments, right? Today we sort of have digitalized public equities, but it's not very good technology, it takes several days to settle and it's expensive and it's not very accessible for most people around the world. Very few people actually can buy and sell public equities easily. Well, imagine that 8 billion people have access to any investment in the world in a low-cost fractional way and they can transact in almost real-time at almost no cost. And so, investment markets become huge, liquidity becomes massive. And if we go back to what happened to public equities, we end up also with derivative products that are easy to create.

So, imagine everything, every asset in the world is digital. The state of today is most of the real estate, most of the funds, and most of the private investments are paper-based. Imagine, in this day and age, 2023, most of our investments are paper-based. So, by definition, they are slow, expensive and difficult. Well, now that's in 20.., whatever the year was, you said 2035. That is all digital. So, it is ubiquitous 24x7 trading, low-cost, easy to fractionalize, price discovery is hopefully efficient, and we can easily build derivatives and drive additional liquidity. That is the future world of investment.

Varghese: Great. Fantastic. On that note, Matthew, thanks again for doing this. I really enjoyed our conversation and that little bit of debate around sovereignty over currency and how infrastructure and all of that. I really enjoyed our conversation.

Le Merle: Thanks a lot, Lata. And for your listeners, what I do want to leave them with is what you said at the beginning. This is inevitable, we will have digital moneys, commodities and assets. And it will be beneficial for every consumer and user. It will be hard and it won't be easy. It will take time.

Varghese: On that note. Thank you again, Matthew, and back to you, Joe.

Kornik: Thanks, Lata and thanks again, Matthew. And thank you for listening to the VISION by Protiviti podcast. Please rate and subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts and be sure to visit vision.protiviti.com for all of our latest Future of Money content. And be sure to subscribe to sharpen your vision. Thanks for listening. I'm Joe Kornik.

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Matthew Le Merle is Managing Partner and CEO of Blockchain Coinvestors. Launched in 2014, Blockchain Coinvestors’ vision is that digital monies, commodities and assets are inevitable and all of the world’s financial infrastructure must be upgraded, and its mission is to provide broad coverage of the fastest-growth blockchain companies and crypto projects. Matthew is serves as Managing Partner of Keiretsu — the most active early-stage venture investors backing over 300 companies a year. Matthew’s career has spanned being a global strategy advisor, professional services firm leader, corporate operating executive, private equity and venture capital investor, and board director. His board work has included Chairman or Non-Executive Director roles in 15 public and private companies and active Advisory Board roles in fast growth companies.

Matthew Le Merle
CEO, Blockchain Coinvestors
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Lata Varghese is Managing Director in Protiviti’s Technology Consulting practice and Protiviti’s Digital Assets and Blockchain practice leader. Lata is a seasoned executive with over 20 years of experience in helping clients successfully navigate multiple business and technology shifts. Prior to Protiviti, Lata was one of Cognizant’s early employees when the firm had less than1,000 employees, and she grew with the firm as it scaled to a $17Bn, Fortune 200 enterprise.

Lata Varghese
Managing Director, Protiviti
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Protiviti-Oxford study: Execs see cashless future, expect big disruption from digital currency

Protiviti-Oxford study: Execs see cashless future, expect big disruption from digital currency

An overwhelming majority of global business leaders—85%—expect their home country to be “cashless” within a decade, and nearly a third expect it will happen within the next five years, according to findings of the Protiviti-Oxford survey, “Executive Outlook on the Future of Money, 2033 and Beyond.”


Monetary disruption

With so many executives around the world anticipating the end of paper money sooner rather than later, there’s little doubt that we are in the midst of big changes to the global monetary system. Over the next decade and beyond, a massive disruption—the evolution from cash to both regulated and unregulated digital currencies—will upend traditional financial systems and infrastructure in an unprecedented way, posing both known and unknown risks for businesses worldwide.  

Indeed, 88% of global business executives say they expect increased business risk factors to accompany the anticipated changes to the monetary system over the next 10 years, although about half of those quantified the risk as “moderate.” Fewer executives in North America were concerned about increased business risks than their counterparts in Europe and Asia-Pacific.

We asked executives to identify and rank the biggest challenges their businesses will face as they transition to a cashless business. Their top five are:

  • Infrastructure

  • Privacy and security concerns

  • Government regulation

  • Customer adoption

  • Financial crime / fraud protection

Regional variability

Interestingly, there were geographic disparities among the top three challenges: “Infrastructure” was overwhelmingly the top concern in North America. It was also first in Asia-Pacific, but barely edged out “government regulation.” In Europe, “privacy and security concerns” and “government regulation” tied for the top spot.

When we looked at the responses of those in the financial services industry compared to all others, there was one major disconnect. Financial services executives did not view “customer adoption” as a top five challenge. They ranked it seventh, significantly behind the other four listed above and also lower than concerns about “transaction fees” and “lack of trust in digital currencies.”

The good news is two-thirds of all global executives say their companies are somewhat prepared” for a significant disruption to monetary policies and structures. Another 5% say they are “extremely prepared.” However, in Europe that certainty is not as high: 43% of executives from that region report they are either “neutral” or even “somewhat unprepared” for the changes.

Download a copy of the Protiviti-Oxford survey “Executive Outlook on the future of money, 2033 and Beyond.” 

What impact, if any, do you think digital and crypto currencies will have on your business over the next decade?

The rise of digital currencies

As cash goes away over the next five, 10 or even 20 years, it will ultimately be replaced by existing and emerging digital currencies, which take many forms:

  • Central bank digital currency (CBDC) is issued by a country's central bank and is similar to cryptocurrencies, except that its value is fixed by the central bank and is equivalent to the country's fiat currency.

  • Cryptocurrency is a digital currency secured by cryptography, which makes it nearly impossible to counterfeit or double-spend. Most cryptocurrencies exist on decentralized networks using blockchain technology.

  • Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies with value tied to that of another currency, commodity, or financial instrument and aim to provide an alternative to the high volatility of the most popular cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin.

Whichever form they take, an overwhelming majority of business leaders (87%) believe digital currencies will have an impact on their business over the next 10 years. Given that, it’s reassuring that nearly two-thirds (64%) say they and their businesses will be comfortable using digital currencies in the future. Not surprisingly, financial services executives’ level of comfort skews higher than their counterparts in other industries, 84% versus 61%.

Regulation of digital currencies

Given that digital currencies can be regulated or unregulated, we asked executives their preference: 59% would prefer regulated, while 35% prefer a mix of regulated and unregulated. Only 6% would prefer an unregulated digital currency environment.

But here’s a significant geographical disparity. In North America, only 36% of business leaders say they prefer a regulated environment. The numbers are much higher among executives in Europe (84%) and Asia-Pacific (69%). More than half (54%) of North American executives would prefer a mix of regulated and unregulated. That number dips to 29% in Asia-Pacific and plummets all the way down to 12% in Europe.

Privacy, fraud, and corruption

But a more digitized financial future comes with more threats. Consider this: A staggering 89% of business leaders say they are concerned about their ability to protect customer and client data in a digital currency future. Here’s a geographic snapshot of that data point: Asia-Pacific, 94%; Europe, 92%; North America, 83%.

Another eye-opening statistic: 61% of executives say they expect that crime, fraud and corruption will be more prevalent in financial transactions in a digital currency future. Another 31% say those risks will remain about the same, while only 8% suspect they will be less prevalent in the future. Some experts have suggested emerging technologies, such as blockchain and NFT, could help secure the system and actually decrease fraud and crime. But that remains to be seen.

89%

of business leaders say they are concerned about their ability to protect customer and client data in a digital currency future.

When it comes to digitized currencies, how concerned, if at all, are you with your company’s ability to protect customer and client data?

When it comes to what they see as the biggest threats to their companies’ financial stability over the next 10 years, global business leaders were asked to choose from eight possible choices. Their selections, ranked from most to least threatening, are:

  • Hyperinflation/interest rates

  • Fraud, financial crime

  • Geopolitical uncertainty

  • Lack of trust in financial institutions

  • Income inequality

  • Global digital inequity

  • The rise of digitized currencies

  • The decline of the U.S. dollar

Another industry outlier: Those in financial services are far less concerned about “hyperinflation and interest rates” (20 percentage points lower than other sectors) and far more concerned about “lack of trust in financial institutions” (22 percentage points higher than other sectors).

Technology, partnerships, and disintermediation

More than half of survey respondents say they expect emerging technologies to have an impact on their businesses’ financial transactions over the next 10 years, and 70% say they are likely to identify and leverage strategic partnerships with fintech companies, payment processors, or blockchain providers over the next decade. Financial services executives stand out, once again, as far more likely to expect to form strategic partnerships with technology providers (90% vs. 67%) in the future.

We also asked business leaders about the potential impact of direct payments and/or loss of intermediary institutions (such as banks, clearing systems, payment systems operators, card organizations and electronic money institutions) on their business. Not surprisingly, more than half said it would be a bad thing, with 45% saying they expect “somewhat negative” and 9% saying they expect an “extremely negative” impact. However, 21% say the loss of intermediaries will have “no impact” and 25% say it would have a “somewhat positive” impact.

Confidence in U.S. dollar

In terms of the threats discussed earlier, the potential decline of the U.S. dollar barely registers as a threat at all. As we are about to undergo a seismic shift in the global monetary system and begin a transition from cash to digital currencies, one thing seems certain: Business executives worldwide have confidence the U.S. dollar will remain the world’s reserve currency.

Perhaps that’s not particularly surprising: Business leaders are most likely rooting for stability, which the dollar provides among growing currency chaos. The fact is that nearly four in five respondents (79%) believe the U.S. dollar will still be the world’s dominant medium in 10 years’ time.

That confidence varied slightly by geography (North America, 90%; Europe, 77%; Asia-Pacific, 70%). And when we asked executives what could, potentially, replace the U.S. dollar someday, executives overwhelmingly opted for another stable fiat currency, the euro (58%), with the Chinese yuan coming in second at 17%. None of the new, emerging currencies—Bitcoin, an IMF-backed world currency, a BRICS-backed global reserve currency or an unregulated cryptocurrency—could crack even 5%.

70%

of survey respondents say they are likely to identify and leverage strategic partnerships with fintech companies, payment processors, or blockchain providers over the next decade. 

How likely is it that the U.S. dollar will continue to be the dominant medium of account in ten years’ time?

 

Storing value, accumulating wealth

Finally, we asked global executives what they thought would be the dominant way for investors to store value and to accumulate wealth in ten years’ time. Here are their answers, ranked from most dominant to least dominant:

  • Private equity / Investments

  • Property and real estate

  • Gold and precious metals

  • Bank notes / bank accounts

  • Digital currencies

  • Physical assets / commodities

  • Jewelry / precious stones

  • Artwork / creative assets

When we look at the responses to those global business leaders in the financial services industry measured against those who are not, some big discrepancies emerge when asking about acquiring wealth. Those in financial services were not as enthusiastic about “private equity” or “property and real estate” but were about twice as likely to say, “physical assets and commodities” (32% vs. 15%) and “jewelry and precious stones” (13% vs. 7%).

Conclusion

It’s clear we are entering a tumultuous time when it comes to the future of money. In fact, in many cases, we have already begun to feel the first wave of digital disruption as money goes mobile. It won’t stop there. The decade ahead will be defined by money and its transformation over time. How those changes impact business, commerce, countries, communities, individuals, industries, financial markets and the global economy remains to be seen.

The “Executive Outlook on the Future of Money, 2033 and Beyond” offers a sneak peek at where we are today, but more importantly, where we are going. The good news: Global business leaders seem to be more than ready, willing, and able to take on the seismic changes ahead, and the challenges and opportunities that arise in whatever new global monetary system emerges over the next decade and beyond. And you can take that to the bank! Or, perhaps, somewhere else.

79%

nearly four in five respondents believe the U.S. dollar will still be the world’s dominant medium in 10 years’ time.

Dr. David Howard, Director of Studies, Sustainable Urban Development Program, University of Oxford and a Fellow of Kellogg College, Oxford. He is Director for the DPhil in Sustainable Urban Development and Director of Studies for the Sustainable Urban Development Program at the University of Oxford, which promotes lifelong learning for those with professional and personal interests in urban development. David is also Co-Director of the Global Centre on Healthcare and Urbanization at Kellogg College, which hosts public debates and promotes research on key urban issues.

David Howard
University of Oxford
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Dr. Nigel Mehdi is Course Director in Sustainable Urban Development, University of Oxford. An urban economist by background, Mehdi is a chartered surveyor working at the intersection of information technology, the built environment and urban sustainability. Nigel gained his PhD in Real Estate Economics from the London School of Economics and he holds postgraduate qualifications in Politics, Development and Democratic Education, Digital Education and Software Engineering. He is a Fellow at Kellogg College.

Nigel Mehdi
University of Oxford
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Dr. Vlad Mykhnenko is an Associate Professor, Sustainable Urban Development, University of Oxford. He is an economic geographer, whose research agenda revolves around one key question: “What can economic geography contribute to our understanding of this or that problem?” Substantively, Mykhnenko’s academic research is devoted to geographical political economy – a trans-disciplinary study of the variegated landscape of capitalism. Since 2003, he has produced well over 100 research outputs, including books, journal articles, other documents, and digital artefacts.

Vlad Mykhnenko
University of Oxford
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Emerging tech and the future of payments with Swift’s Head of Oceania, Suresh Rajalingam

Emerging tech and the future of payments with Swift’s Head of Oceania, Suresh Rajalingam

In this VISION by Protiviti interview, Protiviti Director Ruby Chen and Protiviti Senior Director Rupesh Mahto sit down with Swift’s Suresh Rajalingam, who heads up the Oceania region and a team covering 20 countries across the region. Rajalingam is a seasoned senior payments professional with over 22 years of business development experience in both the domestic and cross-border payments space. Here, Rajalingam discusses the rapid pace of technology, open banking, the payment ecosystem, the future of payments in 2030 and beyond, and more.

In this interview: 

1:13 - Swift’s business model in the context of new technologies

4:20 - Areas of opportunity

6:45 - Removing friction in payments

10:52 – Opportunities and concerns in the international payment space

13:19 – The world of payments 10 years from now: Interoperable, or marked by “digital islands”?


Suresh Rajalingam currently heads up the Oceania Swift team covering 20 countries in the Oceania region. Suresh is a seasoned senior payments professional, with over 22 years of business development experience in the domestic and cross-border payments space. His background includes both payments technology and sales and he enjoy working in environments which blend the two. Having worked throughout Australia and New Zealand, he has a broad, multicultural network of contacts within the banking industry; payments market practitioners, market infrastructures, fintech vendors and regulators.

Suresh Rajalingam
Head of Oceania, Swift
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Rupesh Mahto is a senior director specialising in strategy, technology assessment and enabled execution, digital transformation, cloud migration, and application of emerging technology to business demands. He successfully leads interactions with CXO, focusing on increasing operational efficiencies, growth, and cost reduction.

Rupesh Mahto
Senior Director, Protiviti
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Ruby Chen is a Protiviti director with over 12 years of experience in the financial services industry, for 10 of which she worked within the Big Four banks before transitioning into consulting. She has  a broad range of experience providing advisory services and secondments across all three lines of defense.

Ruby Chen
Director, Protiviti
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The future is digital but fraud, volatility could cripple crypto, says Allianz Trade executive

The future is digital but fraud, volatility could cripple crypto, says Allianz Trade executive

Aaron Lindstrom is the Americas region Head of Transformation and Digital Partnerships for Allianz Trade, and he sits down with Joe Kornik, VISION by Protiviti’s Editor-in-Chief, to discuss the end of cash, digital payments, the danger of crypto currencies, the future of the U.S. dollar and what he thinks will be the world’s most valuable asset in 2050.


ABOUT

Aaron Lindstrom
Head, Transformation & Digital Partnerships, Americas region
Allianz Trade

Aaron Lindstrom is the Head of Transformation and Digital Partnerships, Americas region, for Allianz Trade, the world’s largest and oldest provider of trade credit insurance. In his current role, Lindstrom is responsible for the execution of Allianz Trade’s ambitious strategy to fundamentally transform the company for success in the digital era. He also drives the region’s digital partnerships by actively facilitating current and new partnership opportunities, and evolving current product offerings to serve market needs. In addition to the day-to-day responsibilities of his role, Lindstrom serves as a founding member for Allianz Trade’s American Diversity & Inclusion Committee.

Kornik: Everyone seems to be talking about the end of cash and the emergence of cashless societies. So, let’s start there: When do you see cash going away and what are the potential implications—positive and negative—of that development?

Lindstrom: I have heard a great deal of talk on this subject, and I believe that, specifically in the B2B space, we are already there. I’m not aware of any corporation which would hand its employees briefcases of cash to execute purchases. Paper checks are still the most common form of payment in B2B transactions, followed by bank-to-bank (ACH) payments, wire transfers, and credit cards. To many in the trade finance space, “cash” is in reference to payment on or before delivery by one of the above methods.

The pre-payment requirement of many cross-border trades limits supply inputs and creates a cash flow gap downstream. We are seeing a surge in financial institutions and fintechs trying to deploy solutions to provide liquidity and credit at the time of transaction. The rise of embedded finance solutions using technology to provide net payment terms or liquidity at the time of transaction is probably the most positive outcome of these efforts. On the downside, new technology and payment methods come with a degree of risk. Technological dependencies, fraud concerns and market acceptance by both buyers and sellers could all hinder the development and deployment of these programs.

Kornik: The rise of digital currencies will be one of the biggest financial developments over the next decade. Walk me through how you see that playing out—from cryptocurrencies to central bank digital currencies to stablecoins? What could we expect that landscape to look like in 2030 and beyond?

Lindstrom: I think there is a lot of talk about it and most of it is really just marketing. Depending on the data you read, between 50% and 85% of Americans are using some form of “digital payment” today. This could include touchless payment with your debit/credit cards from your mobile device or services like Zelle or Venmo. Again, we are well on our way to a cashless society in both the B2B and B2C spaces. I would argue that the dollar, euro, yuan, and many other currencies are already digital first.

Stablecoins are really just trying to take this to the next level while making money on small changes in the value of the currencies they are tied to. The past few years we have seen several of these algorithmically controlled coins suffer due to improper collateralization and fluctuations of other digital assets. The volatility of these programs shows there is a long way to go before they are going to be considered as a mainstream payment method.

Volatility is also a huge issue for crypto. Looking at Bitcoin as an example, Forbes talks about cryptocurrency’s volatile history. Granted, if you bought and held during the first 10 or so years, you made a ton of money. But since then, there have been as many great days as there have been horrible ones, and it is not uncommon to see the value rise or fall by 10% or more in a day. That type of fluctuation can destroy a company’s profit margin. It would be very difficult to manage a consistent profit margin unless your entire supply chain was operating on Bitcoin, and even then, swings in value could leave manufacturers and distributors in a losing position.

we are well on our way to a cashless society in both the B2B and B2C spaces. I would argue that the dollar, euro, yuan, and many other currencies are already digital first.

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why crypto is not the future

Kornik: So, it sounds like you have lots of red flags when it comes to crypto.

Lindstrom: Look, the key to trade currencies is consistency, and crypto just isn’t there yet. While many feel confident that crypto can become a dominant force in trade, I think there are several barriers to its success. In addition to volatility, security remains a concern. Chainalysis estimates that in 2022 alone, $3.8 billion was stolen in crypto hacks. While credit cards and mainstream banking see their share of fraud, there are protections and insurance available for corporates and individuals with mainstream payment methods. Many of these are legislative in nature, and that is the other big challenge to crypto. Crypto is not tied to or protected by the actions of a sovereign government. While many tout that as a selling feature or benefit, it does not provide businesses or consumers the confidence needed to make it a mainstay of commerce.

For the average person, I am hard pressed to find one use case where these cryptocurrencies provide what is not already handled by existing payment methods. While crypto certainly offers fast and cheap transaction rates, the benefits do not outweigh the risks, in my opinion. When you layer on financial regulations around sanctions and KYC processes, I do not see crypto becoming a major force in global finance.

Kornik: Do you see a future where the U.S. dollar is no longer the world’s reserve currency? And what could potentially take its place?

Lindstrom: The U.S. economy is still the largest economy in the world and continues to be a net importer. Our consumption and economic strength make us the world’s reserve currency. Nothing is forever, but it is hard for me to rationalize a world where the U.S. dollar is not central to trade finance. While I am not an expert on geopolitics, I can see a future where the world is operating with multiple reserve currencies tied to political and trade alliances.

Kornik: What worries you most about a digital currency future? And conversely, what excites you about it?

Lindstrom: Fraud and instability are my biggest fears. Moving towards digital currencies, and indeed digital identities, has the potential to make the world a much more insecure place, leaving us increasingly vulnerable to identify theft and fraud.  Perhaps the most exciting thing to me is the access to data and speed of transactions that digital currency could provide. Given the time it can take funds to clear with current systems—it often takes days—the amount of money tied into these processes must be huge. Freeing that liquidity through digital currency could be a huge boost to businesses of all sizes.

Kornik: Finally, if I ask you to predict far into the future, say 2035, 2040 or even 2050, what’s different? What does that financial future look like? Any bold predictions?

Lindstrom: It has been 90 years since the U.S. departed from the Gold Standard and 50 since Richard Nixon finally ended the last vestiges of a hard currency backed by gold. As I mentioned earlier, I believe that most major currencies are digital in nature already. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies take the concept of fiat money to a whole new level. You asked for a bold prediction so here’s one: If I had to make a prediction of what the future of money looks like in 2050, I would say it will be transacted digitally but likely backed by water. I can see a world in which currency, digital or otherwise, is benchmarked to fresh water as the planet’s most valuable asset.

Crypto is not tied to or protected by the actions of a sovereign government. While many tout that as a selling feature or benefit, it does not provide businesses or consumers the confidence needed to make it a mainstay of commerce.

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Cornell professor of trade policy: Digital revolution will transform currencies—and the world

Cornell professor of trade policy: Digital revolution will transform currencies—and the world

Eswar Prasad is the Tolani Senior Professor of Trade Policy at Cornell University, as well as a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, where he holds the New Century Chair in International Economics, and a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Prasad sits down with Joe Kornik, Editor-in-Chief, VISION by Protiviti, to discuss his latest book, the digital revolution and the future of money.


ABOUT

Eswar Prasad
Senior Professor, Trade Policy
Cornell University

Eswar Prasad

Eswar Prasad is the Tolani Senior Professor of Trade Policy at Cornell University. He is also a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, where he holds the New Century Chair in International Economics, and a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He was previously chief of the Financial Studies Division in the International Monetary Fund's Research Department and before that he was the head of the IMF's China division. His latest book, The Future of Money: How the Digital Revolution is Transforming Currencies and Finance, was named one of the best economics and business books of 2021 by The Economist. He is also the author of Gaining Currency: The Rise of the Renminbi and The Dollar Trap: How the U.S. Dollar Tightened Its Grip on Global Finance.

Kornik: The subtitle of your outstanding book, “How the digital revolution is transforming currencies and finance,” is provocative, to say the least. Let’s start with the end of physical cash. When, why and how do you see it going away and what are the impacts of the digital currencies that replace it? 

Prasad: The era of cash is drawing to an end, with its use declining in virtually every economy, including some economies where it is barely even used. Digital payments have many merits. They are quicker and often cheaper. For businesses, it is a boon not to have to deal with transacting in and managing cash. For a street vendor or a mom-and-pop store, handling cash and making change is a hassle. Storing and managing cash is generally messier, time-consuming, and increases vulnerability to theft and loss.

For all its flaws, cash also has many advantages. It is easily accessible, can be used without any electronic device or connection to wireless networks or the internet, and is available to rich and poor alike. Cash also comes through in a pinch, especially during natural disasters and other emergencies, when communications networks might be down and electricity can get cut off. Most importantly, it provides privacy in commercial transactions, an attribute that is unlikely to be true of any form of money that leaves a digital trail.

Will the disappearance of cash matter? Advocates for cash have made the case that it remains essential for a significant share of the population in any economy—those who might not have easy access to digital technologies, including the poor; residents of remote, rural areas; and the elderly. Digital payments such as ApplePay are easy to use but you need a bank or credit card account before you can sign up. So, the non-acceptance of cash could disenfranchise the poor, who already suffer from various deprivations and lack access to the financial system. Besides, cash is often inextricably tied up with national identity. Countries regularly redesign and modernize their banknotes to reflect their national heritage and values while trying to stay a step ahead of counterfeiters.

Despite all this, the reality is that physical money is slated to become a relic, with digital payment systems becoming the norm around the world. Soon, we will live in a world where our smartphones displace our billfolds and physical wallets, much like they eliminated the need for cameras and GPS devices. Whether that leads to greater economic efficiency, or a dystopian society—or both—remains to be seen.

Advocates for cash have made the case that it remains essential for a significant share of the population in any economy—those who might not have easy access to digital technologies, including the poor; residents of remote, rural areas; and the elderly. 

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digital currencies on blockchain

Kornik: How do you see that race for digital currency dominance playing out—from Bitcoin to central banks to private companies like Amazon or Meta developing their own cryptocurrencies?

Prasad: The emergence of the original cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, was aimed at making it easy, in principle, for anyone to have access to a means of payment without having to rely on a commercial bank, credit card company, or even money issued by a central bank. The fact that transactions using Bitcoin could be conducted using just the digital identities of the transacting parties, thereby preserving anonymity, was an added allure. However, Bitcoin’s unstable value and its inability to handle more than a tiny volume of transactions have made it a non-viable medium of exchange. New cryptocurrencies called stablecoins aim to fix the problem of unstable value. Their stable value comes from being backed by stores of existing fiat currencies. There are already stablecoins such as Tether and USD Coin that are backed up one-to-one by U.S. dollar reserves. These stablecoins are being used for payments within and perhaps someday even across countries.

Allowing major corporations such as Meta and Amazon to issue their own stablecoins could pose a threat to governments’ monetary sovereignty. After all, global corporations that have widespread reach and deep pockets could someday conceivably issue currencies that are delinked from and directly compete with existing fiat currencies.

Spurred by these innovations and faced with the declining use of cash, many central banks around the world are experimenting with or already rolling out digital versions of their currencies. Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) have many advantages. They can provide a free and convenient digital payment system for the masses, even those without a bank account or the means to acquire a credit card. Digital currencies will bring economic activity out of the shadows and raise government revenues by making it difficult to conceal transactions that are subject to taxes. Counterfeiting of currency will become harder, but digital hacks cannot be ruled out. Ironically, offshoots of Bitcoin’s technology might help in improving security. The use of currency for money laundering, terrorism financing, and other nefarious activities will be curtailed.

Kornik: Do you think we’re looking at either a weakened U.S. dollar or even perhaps the end of it being the dominant global currency?

Prasad: New financial technologies, including the advent of cryptocurrencies and CBDCs, have implications for the international monetary system. Take cross-border payments, which are inherently complicated, as they involve multiple currencies, institutions operating on different technological protocols, and varying sets of regulations. As a result, international payments tend to be slow, expensive, and difficult to track in real time. New technologies are reducing these impediments, with nearly instantaneous payment and settlement becoming possible. 

The landscape of global reserve currencies may appear to be at the threshold of disruption as cryptocurrencies gain traction as mediums of exchange and stores of value. In reality, despite all the hype, the proliferation of cryptocurrencies will not have a substantial disruptive effect on the major reserve currencies, especially the U.S. dollar. Unbacked cryptocurrencies are much too volatile to be considered stable sources of value or reliable mediums of exchange. On the other hand, stablecoins backed by major corporations such as Amazon are likely to gain traction as means of payment. But insofar as their stable values depend on their being backed by fiat currencies, stablecoins are unlikely to become independent stores of value.

global corporations that have widespread reach and deep pockets could someday conceivably issue currencies that are delinked from and directly compete with existing fiat currencies.

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U.S. dollar

Kornik: So, what does all that mean for the future of the global economy?

Prasad: The landscape is likely to shift a great deal, especially for smaller and less developed economies. National currencies issued by their central banks could lose ground to private stablecoins and perhaps also to CBDCs issued by the major economies. Even among the major reserve currencies, there are some shifts in store. The U.S. dollar could lose some ground as a payment currency, although it will remain dominant both in this dimension and as a store of value. A digital version of the Chinese renminbi could help it gain traction as a payment currency but the digitization of the currency by itself will do little to boost its status as a reserve currency, one that is held as a store of value by domestic and foreign investors. The renminbi’s further rise, even if gradual and modest, and the advent of additional stablecoins, could reduce the importance of the second-tier reserve currencies, including the euro, the British pound sterling, the Japanese yen, and the Swiss franc.

Kornik: What if we get this right? What are the positive outcomes of this finance and currency revolution? And, conversely, what could go wrong? What worries you about the financial future?

Prasad: The blockchain technology pioneered by Bitcoin has the potential to make low-cost digital payments widely accessible. Many low-income households even in the U.S. lack access to digital payments because they do not have a credit card or bank account. International payments, which are beset by even more impediments, could also be made cheaper, quicker, and easier to track. These changes will be a boon to consumers, businesses, as well as exporters and importers.

Blockchain might soon play a bigger role in other areas of finance as well. Variants of the original technology could someday make it easier to connect savers and borrowers directly, sidestepping banks and other conventional lenders. “Decentralized finance” is viewed by proponents as a way to democratize finance, enabling broader and easier access to a wide array of financial products and services. The prospect of easy access to digital payments and basic banking products for savings and credit is one that could be beneficial not just in developing countries but even in a rich country like the U.S., where about 5 percent of the adult population is cut off from the formal financial system.

But technology can’t solve all the problems and will create new ones. Financial regulators face significant challenges with updating regulations to cover cryptocurrencies and related financial products that often fall between the regulatory cracks. Investor protection is a serious concern as naïve, retail investors might end up taking on more risk than they realize when they get dazzled by the promise of a quick pathway to riches from the new technologies.

Kornik: I don’t mean to focus only on the what could go wrong, but I wonder how you think we can combat issues around privacy, data security, fraud and even financial crimes in a digitized future?

Prasad: Some of the advantages of digital currencies discussed earlier come with a price. Electronic transactions leave a digital trail that cannot easily be erased. Even with privacy protections in place, the reality is that transactions using a central bank digital currency will be auditable and traceable. After all, every central bank wants to do all it can to ensure that its currency, physical or virtual, does not facilitate illicit commerce.

The U.S. dollar could lose some ground as a payment currency, although it will remain dominant both in this dimension and as a store of value. A digital version of the Chinese renminbi could help it gain traction as a payment currency but the digitization of the currency by itself will do little to boost its status as a reserve currency.

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dollar, yuan, euro, pound sterling

Electronic money offers possibilities that cash cannot. For instance, in an economic crisis, a government could dole out digital money with expiration dates, ensuring that it is spent rather than saved. This makes economic policy more effective but at the same time takes some key decisions out of the hands of households in favor of government-directed outcomes. Digital “smart money” that replaces cash could become an instrument of government control, with authoritarian governments using it as a surveillance tool and even benevolent governments conceivably using it to promote social objectives (preventing its use to purchase goods and services that are deemed illegal or undesirable).

Bitcoin’s blockchain technology can help in creating better digital payment systems, automating a broad range of transactions, and helping to democratize finance. But, in an ironic twist, the true (and dark) legacy of Bitcoin might be the erosion of confidentiality, the broader prevalence of government-managed payment systems, and greater intrusion of big business and governments in financial systems and in the functioning of society.

Kornik: When you look out to 2030 and beyond, what will be the ultimate impact of this digital disruption on people and the planet?

Prasad: In the coming years, central bank-issued currencies will still retain their importance as stable stores of value, reflecting the perceived trustworthiness of their issuers. But when it comes to money’s function as a medium of exchange, we can expect more competition between private and fiat currencies. In principle, intensified competition between currencies should lead to payments that are cheaper and quicker, benefiting consumers and businesses, and also foster incentives for issuers, whether private or official, to exercise discipline in order to preserve the value of their currencies.

But it is worth keeping in mind that technology can have unpredictable consequences. Rather than leading to a proliferation of private and official currencies that compete on a level playing field, the digitization of currencies might eventually result in an even greater concentration of economic power. If they were easily available worldwide in digital form, major currencies such as the dollar, the euro, and the renminbi might displace the currencies of smaller and less powerful nations.

Digital currencies issued by large corporations that take advantage of their already dominant commercial or social media ecosystems might gain traction too and, unless quashed by governments, could one day perhaps even turn into independent stores of value by giving up their fiat currency backing. This could create even more monetary instability if it resulted in individual countries having multiple issuers of money, with domestic currency values fluctuating relative to one another. All that is certain is that the international monetary system is on the threshold of momentous change, wrought by the digital revolution. It remains to be seen whether this ultimately benefits humanity at large or exacerbates existing domestic and global inequities.

the digitization of currencies might eventually result in an even greater concentration of economic power. If they were easily available worldwide in digital form, major currencies such as the dollar, the euro, and the renminbi might displace the currencies of smaller and less powerful nations.

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Three financial executives talk future of money, banking, and the economic promise of Africa

Three financial executives talk future of money, banking, and the economic promise of Africa

Audio file

Joe Kornik, Editor-in-Chief of VISION by Protiviti sits down with a panel of three longtime financial executives with more than 75 years of combined experience in financial services and banking in Africa—Sepo Haihambo, Faith Khanyile and Charity Chanda Lumpa—to discuss the future of the sector, currency and the continent.

In this discussion:

1:25 – A macro perspective on the future of the industry: digitization, inclusivity

5:06 – A more equitable money landscape

10:19 – Implications of digital money

12:40 – Future of banking: consolidation, collaboration, complience

19: 36 – Economic prognosis for Africa


Read transcript

Joe Kornik: Welcome to the VISION by Protiviti podcast. I'm Joe Kornik, Editor-in-Chief of VISION by Protiviti, a global content resource looking to the future to examine big themes that will impact the C-suite and executive boardrooms worldwide. We're discussing the future of money and its implications globally. And today, we're focused on Africa. We have three outstanding financial executives from across the continent joining us today, and I couldn't be happier to welcome in Charity Chanda Lumpa, member of the Supervisory Board of Oikocredit Netherlands, and VP of the Institute of the Directors of Zambia.

Charity Chanda Lumpa: Thank you so much for having me. Thank you so much.

Joe Kornik: Also joining us today is Sepo Haihambo, executive officer of commercial banking, FNB Namibia, and former head of global markets for Rand Merchant Bank.

Sepo Haihambo: Thank you for having me. Excited to be talking about the future of money.

Joe Kornik: And we're joined by Faith Khanyile, director of companies, and former CEO of WDB Investment Holdings, as well as the former head of corporate banking at Standard Bank Group.

Faith Khanyile: Thank you very much for inviting me, looking forward to the discussion.

Joe Kornik: Well, we've got, believe it or not, more than 75 combined years of finance, banking and business experience on this panel today. So, I'm really excited to get started. I wanted to start sort of from the macro perspective and talk about where we are today, with the many disruptors facing the financial sector right now, specifically in the fintech space, with digital payments and cryptocurrencies, and now, even generative AI is into the mix. What do you think it all means for the future of the industry?

Sepo Haihambo: So, look, I think three things come to mind. I think one, as money becomes more digital, you're going to have greater integration in terms of people's everyday lives and how digital payments assimilate into that. Right now, a lot of it is maybe very business-to-consumer, but over time, it will also become business to business. This is going to mean that as banks, we're going to have to look at faster speed of integration as innovation continues into our existing business models, which means continuous investment and capital expenditure to make sure that we're ahead of the curve, maintaining the existing legacy models, but also building into the future with the investment in technology. So, expensive from an investment perspective, but really going to require faster adoption, given the speed of change.

Faith Khanyile: Maybe if I may add to what Sepo is saying, I also think there will be opportunities to promote more inclusive finance, especially in emerging markets, like, for example, in South Africa and African continent, where we still have the big part of our population having challenges accessing financing, accessing credit. But at the same time, we do have a high adoption of, for example, smartphones. And now, also data is becoming more accessible and more affordable. So, I definitely think that AI, and specifically, fintech, can promote more inclusive financing. And also specifically for small businesses, which require credit, and the old traditional way of accessing credit via banks has been quite expensive and also just not that friendly to small businesses.

Charity Chanda Lumpa: The future I have in mind is trending towards what I think Sepo talked about in terms of digitization. It's more about convenience, making it convenient. I don't know what paper money will look like in the future, if at all, but certainly, digitization is going to run out the number of ATMs that we have because of that particular instance. And even payment systems themselves will continue to be more and more cashless as we go, so that we can see that there'll be more focus on convenience, more focus on inclusivity, and that will also require much more security in terms of our banking systems or whatever system we're going to use, to use money on the global platform, even locally, domestically.

Joe Kornik: Right. And I heard you all in some way, shape or form, talk a little bit about equity. I think one of the promises of the future of money is that it perhaps will create a more equitable global environment for the financial sector. Do you see that as a real possibility and one of the opportunities in the future?

Charity Chanda Lumpa: I think it's a yes and no question, because basically, leveling the playing field would be tantamount to people having the same opportunities, equal opportunities, and equal access to finance. Yes, as much as the level playing field will be there in terms of the mode of using this money digitally, there will be some areas where there'll be less equity than others. And especially when you look at the South-South divide, or the first world and second world, definitely in more African countries, we'll see that cash is more of a leveler than it is elsewhere, where you find that you can't even pay using cash, you have to have a card. You have to have a debit card or a credit card. So, it's a yes and no question, depending on where you are.

Faith Khanyile: Yes. And I think to add, I think we do have to also deal with some fundamental issues around the allocation of capital, because I think right now, we do have issues around the diversity, sort of like the profile of the allocators of capital and then the managers of capital as well. And I guess also within this, we've got still, sort of like old ways of really looking at who gets capital. So, I think technology, fintech alone cannot solve some of those fundamental issues around who is allocating capital, and to whom are they allocating capital. Because I think one of the biggest challenges that globally we still have is that we have not really had the kind of transformation that we need at that level of capital allocation, and capital and fund management, which then can trickle down to making sure that we then achieve equity in the access to finance.

So, I think we do need to deal also with that issue, because then, if we can deal with that issue, then we can hopefully see more equity in who is accessing finance, be it women or small businesses. But I think as long as we don't have that, and then also if we don't deal with some risk appetite issues, I think we will have a challenge. But I think obviously, fintech and technology or the digital revolution will definitely open up opportunities, but we do need to deal with some systemic issues as well.

Sepo Haihambo: So, what I would say is I agree with Faith and Charity that at the end of the day, digital money is still money, so it must be earned. And if the earning potential of the individual, the company of the country isn't enhanced, then it doesn't necessarily increase access. However, having said that, I think with the increase in digital solutions, you're going to have more straight-through processing and real-time settlement of transactions. And this being done by people's cell phones, et cetera has led to new credit models that perhaps wouldn't have been used even five years ago. I've read case studies where they look at the behavioral pattern of when a person buys data for their mobile plan. Are they responsible? Do they wait until they finished every last bit of data and voice time before they top up? Are they very prudent, and like when they’re 50% utilization, they go and they top up, and they’re using alternative credit models that weren't available to us before we had AI as an input into credit models. But ultimately, we still need to solve in tandem, for the quicker, better, faster solutions. We need to, in tandem, solve for the income potential of the individuals, the companies, and the countries, et cetera. Otherwise, you build for a very limited market.

Joe Kornik: I think we're all in agreement that money is going digital. Clearly, the future is going to be some sort of digital currency, which opens up all kinds of new issues potentially. I mean, there are opportunities, certainly, but then there are also some challenges.

Sepo Haihambo: A hundred percent cashless society would need—for that to be adopted, you need that to be government led. So, I suppose there are valid concerns around the privacy, and the conversation will probably be based on the analysis of the positives and the negatives on a whole, and on a balance, what society seeks to gain if we go fully digital with no cash, globally. I mean, like, for example, I think enhanced revenue—tax revenue collection, could be one of the possible gains. But with regards to the privacy concerns, what I find interestingly enough, is that this tends to also be linked to generational concerns. You find that the younger generations from your Gen Z's and below are not as concerned about sharing their data. There's more of an interest in understanding why their data is being taken and what it would be used for, but happy to share the data if there's understood benefit for them at an individual level. So, I think as time moves on, the adoption of fully digital money will probably get easier as the younger generations come into the active economic workforce.

Faith Khanyile: Yes, I think one of the other considerations is obviously, on regulation. I think governments really need to get their heads around how do they regulate this new unchartered territory to protect the privacy of the individuals, as well as, obviously, the data that is being shared.

Joe Kornik:You've all touched on banking, and we have so much banking experience here on this call, I just wanted to ask a little bit about the future of that sector and what do you see as the major challenges in banking.

Charity Chanda Lumpa: I think for me, banking especially is a very highly regulated sector, and that always causes problems for banks, especially when it comes to meeting some regulations that actually negatively or adversely impact the ability to provide great service to customers. So, regulation needs to be measured, because keeping up with these regulations can be a challenge. It's a cost, especially for smaller banks. So to overcome this, a bank needs to implement really robust risk management systems, and also invest in technology that supports their regulatory reporting, but that tends to be quite high. And really, having a proactive stance when it comes to compliance; it's quite a cost in terms of a bank to meet all these regulatory requirements. So, yes, for me, that's one area that I see is quite a challenge for the banking sector in years to come.

Sepo Haihambo: I would add that the significant cost of compliance is definitely a key item, and I agree with Charity on that. And then, you also have the cost of guarding, protecting your client's money because of the cyber risk investment that has to happen alongside with a large capital expenditure, that banks will continuously need to plow into their systems to make sure that they've got fast adoption of new technology as it is developed. It's making the cost of doing business relatively high. So, what I expect you'll see in the next 5 to 10 years is a lot of consolidation. I think we're definitely seeing that in the African banking context. So, lots of consolidation, fewer players, but bigger players because of the cost of business in banking continuing to escalate with compliance and investment in technology required.

Charity Chanda Lumpa: We have seen changing customer behavior and expectations in the face of what we just discussed, security and cybersecurity threats. So, with the increasing trend of technology, digitization of financial transactions or banking transactions, the risk of cyber threats, even data breaches, becomes a really significant concern for banks. And to keep their customership, they must now continue to enhance their security stance, their security measures, and implement stringent cybersecurity frameworks that are not cheap, they're quite costly, and ensure that there's also a very robust, what I would like to call “incident reporting systems,” to allow customers feel that, yes, when it does happen, the bank will be there to help them. But all these are actually quite costly investments for the bank.

So, collaboration is going to be very key between the banks, between regulators, law enforcement agencies in terms of combating cybercrime. And then, customer behavior also needs to be factored in because the banks need to transform their experience of their customers by providing seamless, personalized, and omnichannel services, because really, it's not just in the good old days you go to the bank and then you get served. Now you have to get your banking wherever you are, and mostly, it's on your handset. So, banks now need to adopt a more customer-centric digital strategy when it comes to leveraging the data analytics to understand customer preferences, behaviors, whilst ensuring that they're protected.

Faith Khanyile: Yes. And also, I think the other one is that definitely banks are being disrupted by fintechs. I mean, it's that being disrupted left, right and center. Yes. And you can see, banks are now entering the fintech area, and they've got this legacy systems and costs that are just difficult to dissociate from. So, I think that's definitely—I think that trend has been going on now for the past five to 10 years. So, that is a real reality. But you see banks partnering with fintechs or investing in fintechs. It's actually fascinating to see what's happening in South Africa at the moment.

Joe Kornik: So, Faith, play that out for me, over the next three to five to even 10 years, how do you see that sort of—those partnerships and those collaborations, how do you see those impacting the sector, the industry?

Faith Khanyile: I think the industry is definitely going to be totally, totally different, because it's not just the fintechs that are playing in this sector, we also are seeing telecoms companies also. Because they've got the customer, they've got the data, they really have got the cream that you want, to then offer financial services into this huge untapped market on the continent. So, I think it's going to be a totally—I think over the next 10 years, your traditional banks, like your standard bank, your net bank, they are going to be—yes, I think it's going to be very tough for them because I think they're going to be meeting competition from all angles, from their own clients, from their service providers. So, it's going to be quite different, and I guess the regulations must obviously keep up with the changes. I think what we're seeing in South Africa is that the regulations are a bit sluggish, but that is not stopping innovation. I mean, even retailers are offering financial services to their clients. So, it's going to be a totally, totally different industry over the next 10 years.

Joe Kornik: I wanted to talk about Africa a little bit. It wasn't too long ago that some were predicting that Africa could be the next China, but economic growth has slowed post-pandemic. But key demographic changes still signify a lot of economic opportunity, and since we've got three different countries represented here, I did want to ask a little bit about, from a financial standpoint, from an economic standpoint and its positioning on the global stage, where is the continent today, and where do you three see it going in the future?

Sepo Haihambo: Africa is a very diverse continent. I believe at any given time, there's always pockets of growth in the continent. What you do find, though, I think there is still lots of potential untapped opportunity in the continent. I think following COVID-19, with the supply chain delays that were experienced globally, this trend towards reshoring is making a lot of manufacturers and countries reconsider how they acquire raw materials, which I think is creating more direct demand for a lot of the raw materials that are produced in Africa, and also the move towards renewable with these rare minerals that are required for batteries, like lithium, as an example. So, I think from that perspective, there's definitely another growth wave that will come through in the African context.

And then you've got the added complexity of these conversations around the dollarizing trade in Africa, which then could also be very beneficial towards the value of these African currencies. And then, at the same time, you've got African leaders coming together, having a conversation about the Africa free trade continental agreement, which would enhance trade, South to South trade on the continent. So, I think those opportunities do exist, but it would be irresponsible for me not to highlight, though, that the issues and the challenge in adopting new technology is being outpaced by the speed at which we're developing our skills and infrastructure to be able to support that future. So, it's almost like the two things need to happen in tandem for that full potential of the continent to be realized.

Faith Khanyile: Yes. I mean, I think, to say, first one, the opportunities are definitely still there. And I think if we look at the latest AFDB Africa economic outlook for 2023, it's very clear that Africa has definitely been resilient. Again, here, we need to understand that Africa is not one country, but just a macro. The continent has definitely been resilient post-COVID, and the economic growth has recovered completely. I think for 2023, the growth is still projected to be just close to 4%, actually—I have not seen the latest IMF outlook, but that was from the AFDB. And then, for 2024, the continent is projected to grow by 4.3%. And then, we talk about, obviously, the population and the youth dividend, those opportunities definitely have not gone away. But obviously, I think we've had headwinds due to the war in Ukraine, which has led to high food and energy prices. Most of the countries in Africa are battling very high levels of inflation, then we've had the increasing interest rates in the U.S., and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar have definitely impacted those countries that have borrowed heavily from, using U.S. dollars. But I think the key opportunities right now, actually, that we need to leverage as the continent revolves around what now is being termed the “green economy.” And then, I mean, the numbers are just staggering. I mean, apparently, the opportunity ranges anywhere between $2.6 trillion to $2.8 trillion that is required by 2030 to take advantage of this green economy. Anywhere from investing in renewable energy, investing in water infrastructure, obviously, health and education, are still big opportunities on the continent.

 

Charity Chanda Lumpa: Africa is the happening place. I think all major developments will take place in Africa, if I can say so. Why? Because we have a very youthful population in Africa, a growing middle class, and we have abundant natural resources, increasing urbanization, which may be good or bad, depending on how you handle it. All these actually are significant opportunities for economic growth in the next five to 10 years. We need to make progress as Africa at both country and continental level in terms of infrastructure development, because as we have seen across Africa, many countries are investing heavily in infrastructure development, which will include energy transportation, the green economy that I think Faith was just referring to, and telecommunications.

 

But we also need to improve connectivity to facilitate trade and ensure that we attract direct foreign investment. When you look at Africa right now, just across from Zambia to Malawi, I had to go to Johannesburg. Okay? So, that interconnectivity is not dead. For me, I cannot jump on a flight to then go straight to Nigeria, for example. I have to hop onto another flight, get to another airport, and sometimes even go to Europe to come back down to Africa. So, interconnectivity needs to be sorted out, especially when it comes to regional integration. In order to boost our inter-African trade and increasing investment flows, that will foster economic cooperation.

 

If we can also ensure regarding renewable energy investments, that this focus in Africa should be driven by the need for sustainable development in terms of wanting to mitigate adverse climate change developments. As you know, we have vast renewable energy potential, especially in solar, wind, and even hydroelectric power.

So, I think Africa is the happening place. Really, our economic trajectory is going to be influenced by a lot of combinations, such as domestic and global factors, and with the right leadership. I can't overemphasize that. We really need bold leadership that will look inside Africa for African solutions that will be provided by Africans within Africa, with as much help as they can get. But really, we can't keep running to the first world for help when we have significant resources, both human capital and otherwise, on the continent, that can come up with African solutions.

Joe Kornik: Faith, Charity, and Sepo, thank you so much for your time today. I really appreciate the conversation.

Charity Chanda Lumpa: Thank you, Joe. It was really good talking to you.

Sepo Haihambo: Thank you so much for the opportunity.

Faith Khanyile: Thank you very much for the opportunity. Thank you.

Joe Kornik: And thank you for listening to the VISION by Protiviti podcast. Please rate and subscribe wherever you listen to your podcasts, and be sure to check us out on vision.protiviti.com for all of our content around the future of money. Thanks for listening. On behalf of Faith, Sepo, and Charity, I'm Joe Kornik. We'll see you next time.

Close transcript

Lumpa is the founder & CEO of the Charity Chanda Lumpa Foundation, a nonprofit seeking to support community projects. She was a three-time CEO of the Zambia National Tourism Board, Ecobank Zambia Limited and Airtel Networks Zambia Plc and has extensive experience in insurance, banking, tourism and telecommunications. Previously, she had held executive roles in Citibank Zambia, Barclays Bank and Stanbic Zambia Ltd. Lumpa is a member of the Supervisory Board of Oikocredit Netherlands and VP of The Institute of Directors of Zambia.

Charity Chanda Lumpa
CEO, Charity Chanda Lumpa Foundation
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Faith Khanyile is a financial executive and futurists with 25 years of financial services industry experience in corporate and investment banking, private equity and balance sheet equity investing. She is passionate about growing businesses, empowering people and providing opportunities for women and young people. Previously, she was the Chief Executive Officer of WDB Investment Holdings and Head of Corporate Banking at Standard Bank Group, both in Johannesburg.

Faith Khanyile
Financial executive & entrepreneur
View bio

Sepo Haihambo is Executive Officer, Commercial Banking, of First National Bank Namibia where she is responsible for the alignment of bank global strategy with full accountability for segment operations, regulatory, risk management, income statement and balance sheet management. Previously, Haihambo was Head of Global Markets for Rand Merchant Bank in Namibia. She is a seasoned senior executive with deep business knowledge, good business acumen, and a proven leadership record of accomplishments leading strategic turnarounds and high-growth strategies.

Sepo Haihambo
Executive Officer, FNB Namibia
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Cash out: Why execs need to stay vested in digital currency developments around the globe

Cash out: Why execs need to stay vested in digital currency developments around the globe

In a recent seven-day stretch that concluded with the incarceration of a crypto exchange founder CEO, the following milestones garnered limited mention beyond CoinDesk: 

- The first large U.S. financial company unveiled its own US$-pegged stablecoin;

- The largest publicly traded U.S. crypto exchange went live with its open blockchain-based development platform; and

- The SEC reviewed applications for spot bitcoin ETFs from several large investment companies.


These important digital-currency advancements did not receive the attention of the media, which preferred to focus on the opaque platforms, protocols and business practices behind the bankruptcies, collapses and alleged frauds that sparked a “crypto winter.” The underreported developments have less to do with tumbling, rug-pulling, slashing, cold wallets, gas or meme coins and instead are doing more for mainstreaming crypto innovation and rewiring the payments circuitry.

These regulatory, business and technological developments will have substantial implications on decentralized finance (DeFi) and Web3 opportunities across a broad swath of sectors, companies and internal business and functional groups. But beyond the headlines, a wealth of business-relevant digital currency developments and Web3 opportunities demand the C-suite’s attention.

Yes, the outcomes of crypto-related federal criminal investigations and charges as well as enforcement actions will shape future legislation, regulations and enforcement stances. And as Lata Varghese, Managing Director and Protiviti’s Digital Assets and Blockchain practice leader, says in Protiviti’s Powerful Insights podcast, Future of Crypto Innovation and Regulation: “I think the industry should expect much tighter regulations and rules, and if you're an intermediary enabling the trading of crypto assets or safekeeping customer assets, you should expect to comply with all of the rules that would apply if you were managing any other asset.” 

Business leaders with Web3 ambitions and strategies would be wiser to familiarize themselves with the EU’s groundbreaking Regulation on Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) than they would be to follow click-bait accounts of crypto failures (which largely stem from old-school governance and risk-management breakdowns). Thoughtful consideration of select cryptocurrency, stablecoin and central bank digital currency (CBDC)issues will help business leaders put enablers in place to optimize investments in blockchains, smart contracts, digital assets and other Web3 opportunities.

Digital Currency Definitions

  • Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC): A form of digital currency issued by a country's central bank. They are similar to cryptocurrencies, except that their value is fixed by the central bank and equivalent to the country's fiat currency.

  • Cryptocurrency: A cryptocurrency is a digital or virtual currency secured by cryptography, which makes it nearly impossible to counterfeit or double-spend. Most cryptocurrencies exist on decentralized networks using blockchain technology—a distributed ledger enforced by a disparate network of computers.

  • Stablecoin: Cryptocurrencies whose value is pegged, or tied, to that of another currency, commodity, or financial instrument. Stablecoins aim to provide an alternative to the high volatility of the most popular cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC), which has made crypto investments less suitable for common transactions.

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blockchain

Crypto and stablecoin: What would Howey do?

Consumer and business cryptocurrency adoption continues to increase despite the industry’s well-publicized struggles in the past 18 months.

Market research conducted by crypto payment gateway Triple-A estimates there were more than 420 million global crypto users at the start of 2023, representing about 4.2% of the global population. One graph in Triple-A’s report overlays global internet adoption from 1991 to 1998 with global crypto adoption from 2014 to 2022: The trajectories are nearly identical. The countries with the largest portion of crypto-owning citizens include the United Arab Emirates, Vietnam, the U.S., Iran, the Philippines, Ukraine, South Africa and El Salvador. In the U.S., 44% of U.S. cryptocurrency owners have annual incomes of US$100,000 or more, 66% hold at least a bachelor’s degree, and 82% are between the ages of 18 and 44. The report also notes that more companies—in retail, financial services, technology, media and entertainment, automotive and telecommunications—are accepting cryptocurrency payments.

A failure of governance and risk management, not a failure of crypto

Crypto adoption remained steady during a 15-month period marred by crypto company liquidity crunches, bankruptcies, bitcoin-laundering lawsuits, enforcement actions and indictments. This resilience shows that the DeFi and Web3 ecosystem is larger and broader than certain crypto exchanges, lenders and stablecoin issuers. Besides, closer scrutiny of most of these misdeeds (alleged or otherwise) points to fundamental corporate governance and risk management failures as root causes of many crypto company collapses. The OCC’s 2016 report on responsible innovation ought to be required reading among crypto-company leadership teams. The OCC’s Responsible Innovation Guiding principle #5 calls for furthering safe and sound operations through effective risk management.

Since that didn’t occur in many cases, upcoming legal, regulatory and legislative outcomes could have significant impacts on crypto markets. One of the biggest crypto-related questions in the U.S. is whether crypto qualifies as a digital commodity (and is therefore subject to CFTC oversight) or a digital security (subject to SEC oversight and registration). An answer likely pivots on the so-called Howey Test, a four-pronged determination of whether a transaction or contract qualifies as a security, based on a 1946 Supreme Court decision.

Regulatory attention

U.S. executive and legislative branch attention on cryptocurrency is also increasing. On September 16, 2022, President Biden issued an executive order detailing a framework for the responsible development of digital assets. Congress has proposed dozens of crypto and blockchain-related bills, including the Clarity for Payment Stablecoins Act, which cleared the House Financial Services Committee in August but lacks support from the President, the Treasury Department and the Fed. At the markup session Representative Patrick McHenry, the Republican chair of the Financial Services Committee, warned, “As other jurisdictions like the UK, the EU, Singapore, and Australia move forward with clear regulatory frameworks for digital assets, the United States is at risk of falling behind.”

The EU’s enactment of MiCA earlier this year confirms that the U.S. has regulatory ground to make up. The sweeping regulation establishes a comprehensive framework for issuers and service providers including compliance with the anti-money laundering rules while covering issuers of utility tokens, asset-referenced tokens and stablecoins, along with service providers (e.g., exchanges and wallet providers).

“As other jurisdictions like the UK, the EU, Singapore, and Australia move forward with clear regulatory frameworks for digital assets, the United States is at risk of falling behind.”

- U.S. Rep. Patrick McHenry, Financial Services Committee

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CBDC

Central bank digital currency (CBDC): What’s happening?

As of July, 11 countries—Nigeria, Jamaica, The Bahamas and eight other Caribbean countries—had launched CBDCs, according to The Atlantic Council, which maintains a nifty tracker of CBDC initiatives in 130 countries.

Another 25 countries are now running CBDC pilots, including India, China (whose government has officially banned cryptocurrencies while embracing the digital yuan), Russia, Australia and Sweden. The U.S., along with Canada, Mexico, the UK and most EU countries have CBDC programs in development; and 45 more nations are in the research phase. President Biden’s September 2022 Executive Order calls for the exploration of a CBDC, which the New York and Boston Federal Reserve Banks are exploring by developing prototypes for both retail and wholesale CBDC.

Last year, El Salvador and the Central African Republic made bitcoin their national currencies. Making a decentralized digital coin the national currency represents a markedly different monetary policy than creating a CBDC, which is highly regulated and controlled by a central bank, and, in most cases, operated on a private blockchain.

Types and approaches

CBDCs can be retail (focusing on consumers and small businesses) or wholesale (larger businesses, governments) in nature. A retail CBDC differs from existing forms of cashless payment instruments because “it represents a direct claim on a central bank rather than the liability of a private financial institution,” according to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), which also tracks global CBDC trends. “In contrast to a retail CBDC, a wholesale CBDC targets a different group of end users. Wholesale CBDCs are meant for use for transactions between banks, central banks and other financial institutions. So, wholesale CBDCs would serve a similar role as today’s reserves or settlement balances held at central banks.” The majority of current CBDC pilots are retail-focused.

The primary motivations for creating a CBDC, according to the BIS, include financial stability, monetary policy implementation, financial inclusion (i.e., reducing the number of unbanked and underbanked citizens), payments efficiency (especially for cross-border payments) and payments security/robustness.

CBDC designs and approaches vary widely. Some are token-based, others are account-based; distribution, access, privacy and security mechanisms differ as well. CBDCs also help address changing consumer preferences, including a growing embrace of digital transactions and the declining use of cash. In 2016, 31% of consumer payments were conducted in cash and 45% were made via credit and debit cards, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco; by 2022, cash comprised only 18% of consumer payments while 60% of payments were made with credit and debit cards.

Upsides and downsides

Economist and Cornell professor Eswar Prasad’s book The Future of Money: How the Digital Revolution Is Transforming Currencies and Finance, provides a comprehensive analysis of CBDC pros and cons. The disintermediation of banks is a potential CBDC downside. If a central bank paid interest on its retail CBDC accounts, it could directly compete with commercial banks. While that makes interest-bearing retail CBDCs less likely, there are also upsides for traditional financial services companies: “Wholesale CBDCs could allow financial institutions to access new functionalities enabled by tokenization, such as composability and programmability,” according to the BIS. Large financial institutions are already leveraging DeFi innovations: Last fall, JPMorgan executed its first cross-border transaction on a public blockchain, and the company continues to explore, and invest in, digital identity capabilities and other Web3 innovations.

In his analysis, Prasad also discusses numerous monetary policy benefits of CBDCs: “A CBDC, if properly designed, makes monetary policy more potent in general,” he writes, “particularly under difficult circumstances when an economy faces collapsing growth and spiraling inflation.”

“Wholesale CBDCs could allow financial institutions to access new functionalities enabled by tokenization, such as composability and programmability,” according to the BIS.

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digital stock chart

Laying the groundwork for Web3 capabilities

The blockchain and digital asset building blocks used in cryptocurrencies, stablecoins and CBDC also undergird a broader range of business uses across industries. DeFi is often used to describe public blockchain technology used to create digital financial services, products and applications related to payment processes, borrowing and lending, and more. Widening the focus beyond financial services and this decentralized infrastructure generates Web3 opportunities related to smart contracts, NFTs and other digital assets, and decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) models.

“Web3 introduces concepts of decentralized accountability and self-sovereign identity, which creates a digital world that centers the control of data around its use,” notes Protiviti Global Leader of Technology Consulting Kim Bozzella. “That, in turn, empowers individuals to have increased control and ownership of privacy and security while interacting in digital realms.”

Again, the nature of these digital applications and opportunities is varied and broad. Stablecoin payments can help small businesses, small vendors and gig workers, accounts receivable functions, and working capital management capabilities.

Areas of opportunity

As more companies integrate crypto and stablecoin into their investment activities, new forms of insurance are needed. Less than 5% of crypto assets are thought to be insured, according to Reuters: “The question for insurers today is no longer whether there should be coverage for cryptocurrency, given the market entrants already in the field. Rather, the question is what forms such coverage will or should take.” But still, finding reliable insurance for crypto is no easy task.

Digital cross-border remittances, e-commerce, the gaming market and the luxury goods market mark the most lucrative short-term opportunities for digital currency and Web3-related adoption and advancements, according to Triple-A’s research.

Protiviti’s annual survey of global CFOs suggests that finance leaders across all industries recognize these opportunities. Although they were never low-ranked finance priorities in previous surveys, blockchain and smart contracts jumped well into the top 10 in the 2022 survey results.

That recognition is important from a CFO perspective because Web3 opportunities related to payments, investments and digital assets require robust governance, risk management and compliance capabilities; new treasury, tax and internal audit considerations; and adjustments to related back office processes (e.g., order-to-cash and procure-to-pay).

Nathan Hilt, a Protiviti managing director who leads the firm’s payments and fintech solutions practice, tells Treasury & Risk that he views different modes of accelerated payments not as a single, absolute treasury solution, but as options that can meet different needs. “The goal is to fit the use case to the processing capability and the ecosystem that would support the various payment methods,” Hilt says. “I don’t think there will be, or ever is, a ‘one size fits all,’ so there is a continued need and business case for various accelerated-payment methods.”

Watching for risks

As financial institutions and companies in other industries increase their use of digital currencies and onboard new customers in more global regions, sanctions evasion risks will intensify. Strengthening anti-money laundering (AML) and “know your customer” (KYC) capabilities along with adherence to a raft of other financial crime-related regulations could help. Customer assessments must be continually updated, transactions should be screened against updated sanctions lists, and blockchain analytics will improve the ability to sniff out transactions linked to higher-risk wallet addresses. Related compliance considerations are also crucial.  

The bottom line

While Web3 encompasses much more than cryptocurrencies and the exchanges they trade on, growing adoption of digital currencies has ripple effects on business innovations. So, too, will legal, regulatory and enforcement clarity. As new governance and oversight guardrails emerge, more C-suites will have additional opportunities to thoughtfully pursue DeFi and Web3 experimentations and innovations.

Web3 opportunities related to payments, investments and digital assets require robust governance, risk management and compliance capabilities; new treasury, tax and internal audit considerations; and adjustments to related back office processes.

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From cash to credit to crypto, exploring how we think about money

From cash to credit to crypto, exploring how we think about money

For baseball fans in America, one of the biggest moments in baseball history is Hank Aaron’s iconic 715th home run that broke Babe Ruth’s long-standing home run record. That moment, of course, was captured on video, and is, by now, a well-established part of baseball’s historical archive. When I watch the video, however, I find myself oddly engaged not by the home run itself, but by where the ball lands—right in front of an oversized advertisement for First National Bank’s new BankAmeriCard.


ABOUT

Joe Kornik
Editor-in-Chief
VISION by Protiviti

Joe Kornik is Director of Brand Publishing and Editor-in-Chief of VISION by Protiviti, a content resource focused on the future of global megatrends and how they’ll impact business, industries, communities and people in 2030 and beyond. Joe is an experienced editor, writer, moderator, speaker and brand builder. Prior to leading VISION by Protiviti, Joe was the Publisher and Editor-in-Chief of Consulting magazine. Previously, he was chief editor of several professional services publications at Bloomberg BNA, the Nielsen Company and Reed Elsevier. He holds a degree in Journalism/English from James Madison University.

The year was 1974 and the card ad urged baseball fans and spectators to “think of it as money.” It’s hard to imagine a world where consumers had to be convinced that credit cards were, indeed, money. Or that they should want to purchase now and pay later. But this was almost 50 years ago, when only 16% of all U.S. households had a credit card, so this was still a tough sell. In fact, the BankAmeriCard was first issued by Bank of America back in 1958, but adoption was, in a word, slow.

I’ve been reflecting on First National’s advertising message a lot lately. It’s a reminder that our relationship with money—and how we earn it, save it, spend it, and indeed, “think of it”—is an evolving and fluid one. How do we think about money? What does the word “money” mean today compared to 1974? What will it mean in 2034 or even 2054? It’s a compelling and complicated question. So, of course, VISION by Protiviti set out to find the answers.

Credit where it’s due

The concept of credit dates back at least 5,000 years. Archaeologists unearthed clay tablets that show agreements to buy something but pay later between Mesopotamians and merchants from nearby Harappa—layaway in the cradle of civilization. Cash, in the form of coins, was already around by that point and has remained king pretty much since then.

In the 1950s, the Diner’s Club card served as a successful proof of concept. Banks took note, and once the magnetic strip that could store user data on cards was introduced in 1969, there was no turning back. Today, 83% of U.S. adults own a credit card and we sure do love them. Statista estimates there will be more than 30 billion credit and debit cards in circulation globally by 2025—four for every person on the planet. Although credit usage and penetration vary greatly by country, there is no doubt that much of the planet prefers plastic to paper.

Globally, there are no “cashless countries” just yet but ForexBonuses says several are getting close. Canada tops the list, with Sweden, the UK, France and the United States rounding out the top five. Going cashless has its advantages and disadvantages and opens a Pandora’s box of new methods of payments and new digital currencies—regulated and unregulated—to emerge.

A financial transformation

All of this is to say the world is in the process of a major financial transformation, which will undoubtedly have global economic consequences. What role will central banks play in digital currencies? What about developing countries—where do they fit into this new, and more virtual, reality? What about the 1.7 billion adults worldwide who are unbanked—some 21% of the world’s population. What does that mean for countries like Morocco, Vietnam and Egypt, where two-thirds of people have no bank account?

And what impact could a new monetary system have on the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency? Could the U.S. dollar be replaced? If so, by what? And when? This question is top of mind for business executives and central to VISION by Protiviti’s exploration of the future of money. We asked economists and experts to weigh in on what’s next for the U.S dollar. We asked the same question of executives in our Protiviti-Oxford global survey on the future of money. And we did a deeper dive into that data in our "Exploring an Uncertain Future of Money" webinar, which is available on demand.

what impact could a new monetary system have on the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency? Could the U.S. dollar be replaced? If so, by what? And when? This question is top of mind for business executives and central to VISION by Protiviti’s exploration of the future of money.

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Crypto.com arena in Los Angeles
Fans enter the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California. Credit: Harry How/Getty Images)

On the money

These are some of the big issues and questions VISION by Protiviti will explore over the next several months in our Future of Money theme. We’ll tackle the questions above and much more, including payments, banks, financial services, asset and wealth management. And we’ll consider the implications of privacy, cyber, emerging tech, fintech, financial crime, and regulation and compliance.

We kick off the topic by interviewing two of Protiviti’s Advisory Board members. Economist Dr. Peter Henry is a Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and Dean Emeritus of New York University’s Leonard N. Stern School of Business. He lays out a global roadmap for a more prosperous and equitable future. And financial executive Evelyn Dilsaver, former President and CEO of Charles Schwab Investment Management, draws a line between the past and the future of financial services, which she says will be dominated by AI and crypto.

We speak with The Economist’s Swarup Gupta, the lead industry analyst for financial services for The Economist Intelligence Unit, about cash, data and how a digital financial future will impact privacy and anonymity. We also talk to Cornell professor of trade policy, economist and author Eswar Prasad about how the pending digital revolution will transform global currencies and the people who use them. Meanwhile, Protiviti Managing Director Adam Johnston sits down with Darren Furnarello, Chief Compliance Officer of HSBC Asia Pacific, to discuss the regulatory environment and banking over the next several years.

The world of sports and the world of money have both come a long way since 1974 but remain intertwined. FIFA had a crypto sponsor for the Qatar World Cup, and the English Premier League and The National Basketball Association currently have crypto sponsorships, as well. Major League Baseball also had one: It signed what turned out to be a disastrous deal with now defunct FTX in 2021 that had umpires wearing the FTX logo on their sleeves.

I wonder what old Hank and the Babe would have said about that?

We’ll tackle the questions above and much more, including payments, banks, financial services, asset and wealth management. And we’ll consider the implications of privacy, cyber, emerging tech, fintech, financial crime, and regulation and compliance.

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