Kornik: I know this has been a very long-term project with lots of planning and multiple phases. Can you update us on where the project stands right now, what the timetables are and what’s next for the project?

Sabandar: The idea started back in 1985; then the first feasibility study came in the 1990s, we started the work in 2013 and completed the first phase in 2019. That phase consists of 16 kilometers in South Jakarta and opened in March 2019. Now we are in the second phase where we continue with another 12 kilometers in North Jakarta, with a plan to complete it some time in 2027. By 2027, Jakarta will consist of a north-south network of 28 kilometers. We are also preparing the implementation of the third phase, which runs 31 kilometers east to west. Construction on that phase is scheduled to launch next year and be completed sometime in 2029 or 2030. At the same time, we are preparing for the fourth phase: This is also in South Jakarta and is about 12 kilometers and scheduled to be completed in 2029. We have also begun planning the fifth phase, as well. So, that’s where we are right now.

Kornik: This is a very ambitious project. I wasn’t even aware there was a fifth phase scheduled…

Sabandar: Well, we haven't announced the fifth phase just yet, but we will soon. And then there’s also a sixth phase. After the north-south and east-west lines are complete, we will have the circle, the inner line and the outer loop line. Once completed, the metro will consist of 325 kilometers covering 10 lines serving some 30 million people in the Jakarta region by 2030. This is how the MRT will become the backbone of Jakarta. One of the things the MRT will bring to the city is a new landscape. Jakarta will move from a very centralized city to one that is serving entire areas being developed along the metro line. In Jakarta, the development has always followed the roads, but the MRT master plan is to develop new towns along the rail stations. We call this “transit-oriented development,” and it will change the landscape of Jakarta in the future.

Kornik: I know there are more than 2.5 million daily commuters in central Jakarta. Most rely on private vehicles, making Jakarta one of the most congested—and polluted—cities on the planet. Is this why this project is so crucial to not only the city of Jakarta but the entire region?

Sabandar: Before 2019, Jakarta was one of the most congested cities in the world, ranked No. 3 by the TomTom Traffic Index. After 2019, Jakarta moved to No. 10. And just last year, it moved all the way to No. 31. And, of course, congestion is related to pollution, which also has improved, although we are aware some of that could be due to COVID. But those congestion numbers demonstrate how the arrival of MRT and people starting to move to public transport have already had an impact. But this is not just because of the MRT alone; since 2019, we’ve started to integrate the MRT into existing public transport, including the bus rapid transport, the commuter rail lines and all the feeder systems. When we’re through, nearly all residents of Jakarta will be within 500 meters from public transport. I believe that if you want to create a good city, a modern city, you must create a good public transport system. If you create a reliable system, a clean system and a safe system, people will use it. And when you integrate it with the feeding systems, it creates almost an entirely new city.

Verticality has always been a part of ancient, old and modern cities. The urban fabric of cities like London, New York and Shanghai has evolved with a different vertical form dominating the cityscape over time. The modern-day skyscraper shadows over cathedral spires and civic monuments that once took the crown in the cityscape. The skyscraper is a unique aspect of cities. And it is more than just a means to extract maximum profit, high density and efficiency from a small parcel of land in the city. The skyscraper has an inevitable cultural significance as a shaper of a city’s image, a landmark for urban dwellers and a marker of a specific era.

Over the last two decades, there has been a global boom in skyscraper construction. Eighty-seven of the world’s 100 tallest buildings today were all completed and opened since 2000, according to The Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat. Of the top 10 tallest buildings, seven are located in Asia, two in the Middle East and one in New York City. Dubai’s Burj Khalifa, completed in 2010, is the world’s tallest building.

And even beyond this ranking of the world’s 100 supertalls, skyscraper construction has also been booming since the early 2000s in typically low-rise European cities including London, Barcelona, Paris and Milan. London has seen a crop of new skyscrapers being constructed over the last two decades which has included new, tall buildings known as much for their design as their unique names such as The Shard, The Gherkin and The Cheesegrater (Leadenhall Building). London’s context is specifically what my research is responding to and where this piece is launching from in thinking about the future of cities in 2030 and how skyscrapers are an important part of the conversation.

Before thinking about the end of this decade, it is worth thinking about where we are right now. Over the last 18 months, every realm of our lives as we once knew it has been dramatically transformed due to COVID-19. The year 2020 was like no other. We remained at home in line with government-led or self-imposed lockdowns. We abandoned our daily commutes, offices and coffee runs for working from home, video conference calls, and adjusting to a new “normal.” Skyscrapers, now mostly empty spaces sitting in and towering above the deserted city, were the least of our concerns.

But the pause enforced on our lives also provided moments for those in academia and the real estate industry to think about the future of the skyscraper. In many virtual conferences and talks, the future of the city has been discussed. I’ve had multiple conversations with key figures in and of the world of London property and skyscrapers. It is from these conversations and events that I am drawing on to present a series of possibilities for the future cultural significance of the skyscraper: a look at the end of this decade based on the tumultuous beginning, 2020. Skyscrapers, old and new, have a long life span. Their resilience and adaptability to change is not so much a question as it is a necessity. So, what will the cultural significance of the skyscraper be in 2030?

Healthy

Health will be embedded in people’s behavior as much as it will be in the skyscraper’s infrastructure. The daunting portrayal of the skyscraper in 2020 as unsafe because it is a high-density space that could enable mass infection transmission is simply not true. But that perception has kickstarted the conversation about future skyscraper construction. Future skyscraper design and architecture will need to incorporate amenities that help prioritize health. This will include increased ventilation, breakout spaces that bring in fresh air, and green spaces like sky parks or gardens. The Spiral, New York’s skyscraper set to debut next year, will have vertical gardens wrapping around it.

Enhanced cleaning and hygiene practices will be part and parcel of skyscraper life whether that is through technology or individual behavior. Entering the skyscraper, calling an elevator, getting to your floor and into your workspace may be a touchless and safe experience thanks to new engineering innovations. Schindler, a global engineering firm for elevators and escalators, is currently developing new technologies such as an ElevateMe app, where building users operate elevators from their phones or with touchless call buttons. Automatic UV air purifying systems will be used for the elevator itself.

Contentious

Despite these optimistic projections about the cultural significance of the skyscraper, issues of sustainability and climate change will continue to be attached to its image. On the upside, the 2030 skyscraper is likely to be on its way to becoming carbon neutral. New York’s Climate Mobilization Act will have likely reached its goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions. As of 2019, 70% of New York City’s emissions were created by the built environment. By 2030, the Act aims for New York City’s 50,000 largest buildings to cut emissions down by 40%. Existing skyscrapers will undergo retrofitting to achieve energy efficiency as well as, to reflect my previous words, to be more attractive and “healthier” places to work.

The City of London’s 22 Bishopsgate has also championed the achievement of carbon reductions. The building has already met its embodied carbon (i.e., the building’s carbon footprint during construction) target reduction recommended by the London Energy Transformation Initiative (LETI) for a net zero building. 22 Bishopsgate will also install intelligent software systems where building users can see their energy consumption and be empowered to adopt sustainable behaviours. I have talked about the new skyscrapers that will be emerging over this decade and focused on their cultural significance, not on why they are emerging or whether they should be. But this topic of sustainability is an unchanged point of contention that will continue to be present in wider conversations beyond the skyscraper’s cultural value.

The skyscraper is one type of urban space that is home to offices, restaurants, retail, viewing galleries, lifts, lobbies, rooftops and shared spaces. Through the lens of the skyscraper, think about how urban spaces will change by 2030. New constructions will be emblematic of this decade that dealt with a pandemic and their visual significance will mark a time not just in the media or marketing but our personal memories. The future skyscraper will embody new ways of working and new ways of managing workspaces in the city. And it will continue to be contentious—admired for its presence in the urban fabric by some and simultaneously criticized for that presence by others.

Climate

The learnings from COVID-19, particularly the coordinated and rapid response that was often required across federal, state and local governments, could serve as a catalyst for another huge challenge that’s facing not only Australia but the planet. Sydney’s Moore says for many years, Australia’s state and federal governments failed to address what she considers Australia’s biggest challenge—climate change.

“I think we can take the learnings from COVID and apply them to addressing climate change, which is overwhelmingly our biggest challenge we have to face for the future,” says Moore. “And I think the learning we took away is that collaboration had to happen; we simply had no choice. We can take those lessons from COVID and start to address climate, too. I think that's what we should all be putting our minds to right now.”

The biggest environmental threat in Hobart, Reynolds says, are the catastrophic bushfires, so it’s quite different from the pandemic in one sense. However, the rapid response, and the need for financial resilience, is very much the same. “Cash flow is a challenge for smaller capital cities. I think the financial sustainability of cities and making sure we're ready for shocks and extreme circumstances is the biggest lesson we can take out of this,” Reynolds says. “As we've seen with this pandemic, there are things that will happen that you just can't predict. So, I think making sure that there is enough support available for people to be able to cope in unpredictable and uncertain times is key.”

Echoing Reynolds comments, Adelaide’s Verschoor says: “I think one of the big lessons for us was that our business continuity plans were for emergency events, which are contained within a timeframe; a fire or flood or losing power, but they weren't designed to be ongoing for months and months,” she says. “There's been a really big rethink about how everything works together, and what we need to put in place if we're going to be facing ongoing and maybe even global interruptions that will inevitably come with climate change.”

Moore says Sydney’s biggest priority has been addressing climate as part of its Sustainable Sydney 2030 strategy. “We made a commitment to get our emissions down by 70% by 2030. And just last year, we partnered with three regional areas to purchase renewable energy from them,” Moore says. “Sydney is now powered by 100% renewable electricity, and it's based on energy coming from those wind and solar farms in regional areas.”

Given the accelerating climate change that’s happening across Australia, Moore says that the “COVID collaboration” will continue to be a key strategy in Australia’s future. The interaction with regional areas that were devastated by bushfires was an opportunity for Sydney to be able to support those regional communities by sending emergency workers and others to assist.

“I think what we will see in the future is greater collaboration, not only from different levels of government, but also that interaction between city and regional local governments,” Moore says. “I don’t think there’s any question that we realize we’re all in this together.”

The world’s population centres are the critical places in the future of our planet. Where people settle, and how they live with the planet, will define the ultimate endgame in the story of human life. Will we spoil our habitat or remake it?

Whether we think of such cities as consumption markets, infrastructure hubs, innovation ecosystems, decision-making centres, sharing platforms or visitor destinations does not really matter. They are all these things—and much more. We have come to call them “cities” because they serve and seek to empower citizens, but this word is now so overused, and sometimes so contentious, that it may just be better to think of them as population centres: places where people are concentrated. In the quest to avoid human extinction, such places are ontologically important. 

On this planet, there are some 10,000 cities where we humans make our home, according to Cities in the World, European Commission and OECD. Meanwhile, the United Nations World Population Projection says we are on the road to 9 billion city dwellers by 2080. Currently, about 600 cities drive our global economy and fuel our national treasuries, 200 cities are the centres of national policy and law making, and 100 cities are the hubs of corporate enterprise.

Anyone who wants to argue against the idea of an urban world needs to articulate the alternative. How would you distribute and service 9 billion souls without using cities as the primary platforms? What are the environmental and social consequences of alternative models?

We know, from all the amassed science of success, that leadership is critical to how countries and companies survive and thrive. We read books about national heroes and about great corporate leaders. But less frequently do we focus on how population centres are led and guided by wise people and what the leadership imperative is for a place that is not a nation and not a business venture. The leadership of cities is a niche discussion.

In our post-pandemic, climate-alarmed world, city leadership is just about to become the most important job on the planet. The next 50 years will be a great reckoning, and it has already started. Can we equip our cities to avoid the extinction of our species?

Kornik: So, my last question is around the demographics and potential of Africa. The population boom that’s happening in sub-Saharan Africa will make it the second largest region of the world in a decade. Talk to me about Africa, its growth and its cities in 2030 and beyond.

Knight: I think we can confidently say that Africa is the last frontier of growth because of coming population growth. There are so few opportunities for growth left across developed markets that investment has to come to Africa, and we see ourselves as a gateway into the continent. We see huge opportunities in Morocco, Kenya and Ghana, for instance. In these places, we have good relationships and good partners. If you look at our portfolio today, it includes Exxon and Halliburton, companies that are very resilient to emerging markets. The middle market is growing and will continue to grow, and the need for both retail and residential product is strong because of this up-and-coming, highly educated population emerging in Africa. That’s really where I see the opportunity going in the years to come. We sit with a portfolio that’s just under R900 billion (South African Rand); can we triple this in the next couple of years? Absolutely. And it’s by no means coming from just the growth on the continent; it must come from outside Africa. And I don’t think, even in my lifetime, that I’ll touch the tip of the iceberg of opportunity in Africa.

Brookes: Bronwyn’s a hard act to act to follow, and I agree with everything she just said. But there’s one fundamental point that we haven’t discussed and that’s the idea of education. I believe Africa needs massive education reform. You drive past our schools and the sports fields are unusable, the grass is a meter high. I think we all understand education is not just about reading books; it’s about so much more of the complete experience. And when I see the lack of investment… I mean, are you kidding me? I think we have a long way to go; the level of education in Africa compared to other continents is extremely low. If we want to compete on the world stage, to me, that’s the next big frontier for Africa.

Pearson: I agree with Steve that education will be paramount. To look at it a little bit differently, I think we need more industrialists in Africa. That’s going to create the long-term opportunity. We need people to come in and change the way that we look at Africa with regards to GDP. If you look at the logistics across our continent, it’s almost non-existent. To get product we need in Ethiopia, sometimes it takes us as much as three months to ship it from South Africa because there is little to no rail and the road infrastructure is so bad. I think one point to be considered is the influence that China is having on Africa. Many people are not happy about it because they are taking a lot of our resources out of Africa, but they’re also providing a lot of infrastructure. Ports, rails and roads are being built because of the Chinese. They are one of the only foreign investors that we have here in Africa, and they are putting billions into infrastructure we all need for our businesses to succeed across the continent. Our long-term future and prospects are great, but we need that outside investment to keep coming into the continent. If that happens, as Bronwyn alluded, I think there’s too much opportunity in Africa for all three of us to realize in our lifetimes.