How quantum computing will impact the future of cities

How quantum computing will impact the future of cities

Quantum-inspired algorithms could bring innovative solutions and approaches to product development, reduce time to market, optimize customer delivery, and speed up data transfers. But what impact could quantum have on the future of cities around the world? For that, Joe Kornik, Editor-in-Chief of VISION by Protiviti, interviews a quantum expert, Konstantinos Karagiannis. Konstantinos is an Associate Director with Quantum Computing Services at Protiviti and he also hosts The Post-Quantum World podcast. Watch the interview above.


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HOW QUANTUM COMPUTING WILL IMPACT THE FUTURE OF CITIES - Video transcript

Joe Kornik: Welcome to the VISION by Protiviti interview. I’m Joe Kornik, Director of Brand Publishing and Editor-in-Chief of VISION by Protiviti, our new quarterly content initiative where we put megatrends under the microscope and look far into the future to examine the strategic implications of big topics that will impact the C-Suite and executive boardrooms worldwide. In this, our first topic, The Future of Cities, we’re exploring the evolution urban areas are undergoing post-COVID and how those changes will alter cities over the next decade and beyond.

We’ve got a good one for you today as I’m joined by Konstantinos Karagiannis, Associate Director of Quantum Computing Services for Protiviti. When we talk about how technology will impact the future of cities, we certainly need to include quantum computing in that equation. Simply put, quantum would enable problem-solving capabilities, involving a number of variables and potential outcomes at amazing speeds not attainable with conventional computers. Quantum-inspired algorithms could bring innovative solutions and approaches to product development, reduce time to market, optimize customer delivery, and speed up data transfers, but what impact could it have on the future of cities around the world? For that, I’m bringing in our expert, Konstantinos Karagiannis. Konstantinos also hosts The Post-Quantum World Podcast. Thanks so much for being here, Konstantinos.

Konstantinos Karagiannis: Yes, thanks for having me.

Kornik: Okay, so this is a big topic. Let’s level set for just a minute if we could. We’ve sort of been hearing a lot about quantum computing for a few years now, so what is it? Where are we in sort of the maturation stage and how far have we come to this point?

Karagiannis: Yes, so quantum computing uses the mysterious nature of quantum mechanics to deal with a type of computing that was never possible before. Quantum computing is not just about building a computer that’s faster, but it’s also about building a computer that does things in an entirely different way. Most people are familiar with classical computing where you have binary, that’s zeroes and ones, that allow computation. In quantum computing, we have something known as a quantum bit, which, thanks to superposition, can be both zero and one at the same time, and it sounds weird. It doesn’t sound like a big deal, but with the right algorithms written to take advantage that, you can do things that have been impossible in the past or will become impossible just because of size. So dealing with a lot of data is a lot easier for a quantum computer. A classical computer, every time you try to improve it, it’s a very linear progression. People now look at Moore’s law. Classical computers get more powerful every couple of years or so. They double every couple of years or so. Quantum computers though, if you just added one of those quantum bits I told you about, you’ve just doubled the power of the machine, just to give you an idea how those things get explosively powerful over time.

We’re still a little bit in the early days as far as maturation. We haven’t been able to prove a usable quantum advantage just yet, but we’re on the cusp. In fact, it could come as soon as this year that we’ll be able to prove some practical application that is just done better by a quantum computer even today, even with the machines we have now. What’s next would be taking these machines and making them even better, and we have plenty to discuss about that today, I’m sure. [Laughter]

Kornik: Okay, so when we talk about cities specifically, where do you the see the biggest benefits of quantum computing as it relates to cities?

Karagiannis: Yes. So, those algorithms I told you about, that if you have them, just take advantage of the machine, they’re going to allow some pretty impressive things to happen on the space of cities. The big three with quantum computing is basically anything involving optimization, anything involving machine learning, or anything involving simulation, and all three of these things apply to the cities. The biggest one we’re going to see first would be optimization, because there’s a type a quantum computer called an annealer, and there are certain types of problems already that if you apply an annealer to them with a little bit of classical assistance, so you sort of have like classical computers doing some of it and an annealer doing the quantum part, we’re already starting to see things that are approaching advantage.

For example, you can do an experiment where let’s say you have a city that has had some kind of catastrophe and they need to distribute goods to multiple locations in the most efficient way, we’ve already seen experimentation done on D-Wave’s hybrid system where a classical machine learning algorithm would try and find the best approach to deliver those goods, and it would take, let’s say, 27 miles of driving to get them to all the locations, and then the quantum computer was able to figure out paths, timing and everything to do it in only 20 miles of driving. So, from 27 miles to 20 miles, that’s pretty decent, and you can imagine how that would start to explode if you add in more variables, like weather or avoid this street because of crime or whatever. Quantum computers just do really, really well at handling larger and larger amounts of data, so we expect this type of thing to hit all avenues of smart cities, all types of planning with optimization. Just regular delivery routes, the classical traveling salesman problem people probably have heard about. It’s this idea of true efficiency, and to me, a smart city is not a smart city if it doesn’t have a perfect efficiency, right, and it just becomes a complicated mess with traffic jams and all sorts of things like that.

Then, you move on to the pure machine learning side. Anywhere the machine learning is sort of touch a smart city, it will just be better with quantum given time. We’ve already seen the extrapolation of this happening, so anytime you’re trying to make intelligent decisions or automate processes, you’ll find that a quantum computer will be able to do things in thousandths of the time that it would take a classical machine, and then eventually gets even more exaggerated. What’s fascinating is this isn’t going to be like a neck-and-neck arms race with classical and quantum. Whenever quantum proves advantage in an area, that will be it. It will be almost like a straight line up if you think about graphing its performance. It’ll never be like classical could catch up again. Just add one qubit and you’ve doubled the system, et cetera, so over a course of a few years, quantum computers are going to seem to be practically [Laughter] magical at the things that they excel at.

Then, on the simulation side too, we see massive impacts of that affecting cities. You’ll be able to do simulations about risks, simulations about how things will literally go, building materials can be improved by simulating which types of molecules handle stresses better. Basically, anything where you want to try and make a guess about how a certain flow on any given day will be, and in the numerous intricacies in the city, quantum machine learning algorithm would just be much, much better.

Kornik: I’ve read quite a little bit about this quantum apocalypse that’s coming. I guess that means the day when quantum computers will be able to crack encryption, which certainly sounds bad. I know on the smart city side, there’s quite a few concerns around cybersecurity, but I would imagine that this is sort of on steroids. So, tell us a little bit about that, the quantum apocalypse, and tell us how bad could that be and what could it mean for cities, and what can be done about it.

Karagiannis: Yes. Way back in 1994, Peter Shor, a mathematician, came up with an algorithm that showed that we’d be able to reverse two very large numbers that were used to make an even larger number, which is basically the secret behind RSA, another type of public key encryption, like elliptic curve. So, once a quantum computer gets powerful enough, which could be five years away—it also depends on, like, if we can link them together, sometimes it might be able to do work more efficiently in the future, it remains to be seen. So, when that happens, all the old ciphers, because of this algorithm, will be able to be sliced apart. This will affect Bitcoin too, and other cryptocurrencies.

So, for a smart city to excel, it would have to build on what we call post-quantum cryptography. NIST is currently working on new math-based ciphers that could replace RSA. Within three years or so, we expect to have fully approved and vetted new ciphers that can be put in place to avoid that quantum apocalypse. So, building a smart city, it would be smart to already consider from now having the crypto agility needed to build those ciphers in.

Kornik: Yes, interesting. A couple of timeframes there, you mentioned a few years out from that. The speed of all of this—I mean, it seems a little mind-blowing, to me at least, a mere mortal. [Laughter] Can you put together sort of a timeline short-term of where we’ll be maybe in a few years in terms of quantum computing in cities? I mean, I know this is a little bit of a riskier proposition when talking about something that moves at the speed of quantum, but can you even hazard to guess as to what could be possible, say, a decade from now?

Karagiannis: Yes, absolutely. I talk about quantum timelines all the [Laughter] time with our customers. Some of them are concerned just about the crypto apocalypse we were talking about, so for them, the timeline is like just from now start looking at being able to adapt to have these new post-quantum solutions in place, but in general, they’re also concerned about how soon they can see real benefit with quantum. So, this is kind of how I see the timeline from what—these aren’t even just guesses. This is sort of like based on roadmaps and things from the people making the machines themselves. Within this year to next year, we’re going to actually see true quantum advantage in areas of optimization because of the amazing work being done with annealers, so that type of quantum computers are already getting pretty mature. It can only solve certain types of problems, but when mapped correctly, we’re already seeing—we’re just about there.

For example, like we could do portfolio optimization now where if we were picking how to invest money, it might not be as accurate as classical, but it will be literally 1,000 times faster, so once we tweak the accuracy, we have the advantage. There’s all sorts of little tweaks and things like that that have to be made, so we’re going to see that with smart cities, too. If anyone wants to apply optimization back to any kind of NP hard type of problem, like a traveling salesman going everywhere without repeating your steps, we’re going to see advantage in that area within a year. So, this is the beginnings of the benefit to a smart city, and it’s already here. About two years from now in 2023, we expect to see multiple 1,000 qubit and up machines, and those are going to start to do really amazing things. The other type of quantum computing are gate-based, so that’s where you’re going to see explosive benefits to doing quantum machine learning, quantum simulation like I talked about. That’s really exciting, how close that is. Around 2023, I imagine there’s going to be a headline-generating paper almost every week, [Laughter] talking about how now we can do things so much better than we did before. That’s just 2023. Then by 2024, we’ll start seeing more interconnects and links, and the ability to connect quantum computers together to have them behave as if they were one machine.

So, it’s not like when you’re trying to do grid computing now that you’re doing a little piece of a problem, and then sending the answer. You’ll almost be able to think of all of them as one machine, kind of sending calculations and progress over special connections for this quantum sort of internet. That’s really, really soon. In 2024 and 2025, we should start seeing explosive growth in the power of the machines because of that interconnect capability. Then, as far as a decade goes, I would say—I mean, Google has already announced that they plan on having fully error-free quantum computers by 2029, so that’s definitely within the decade. Once that happens, quantum computing, there aren’t even have to be any technical hurdles really to making it work. It’ll sort of be like, “Is it a type of problem that quantum is better at?” You just effortlessly encode it and really make it run. It should be quite an amazing time. The interfaces for programming are getting better too, so I can see that within a couple of years, it will be possible to just apply quantum in multiple areas without having to build it from the ground up [Laughter] every single time. This is really the most exciting time. That’s why we’re putting so much focus on it here at Protiviti.

Kornik: Right. Will we see like actual—like when we move around a city in 2030, will we have noticeable differences or will it be so baked in to sort of everything that’s happening around us that we won’t be able to see it in action?

Karagiannis: Yes, because of the areas that it touches are going to make the big changes themselves, I don’t know if people will be aware of what’s happening. I mean, we all see how machine learning, AI, in general, has made life a lot easier. They’re going to notice that AI, all of a sudden, magically got a whole lot better, [Laughter] practically overnight in some areas. I don’t know how aware people are of this all the time, but anything that they thought that AI was doing a decent job at, all of a sudden it’s going to be doing a really great job at, so that could impact everything from like autonomous vehicles —they’ll just have that better sort of grid back-up or brain that is giving them the extra information they need to make better decisions. A city will be more hyperaware of these cars that are moving through it, for example. It will be able to give more real-time feedback and make predictions about where a car will be in a few moments and plan for it. So, quantum might make possible those terrifying images you see of cars shooting through intersections without any traffic lights because they’re all autonomous and slicing the neck out of each other. As much as I love this technology, I don’t know if I want to be in one of those cars. [Laughter]

Kornik: Yes, it’s going to be interesting to say the least. Konstantinos, before I let you go, can you tell us a little bit more about the Post-Quantum podcast that you recently launched?

Karagiannis: Yes.

Kornik: Where can people find it and what can they expect from it?

Karagiannis: Yes, it’s on all the platforms. You could just search The Post-Quantum World. Every episode, I talk to a company, a representative, a researcher, someone who is having a big impact on quantum today. We’ve already had some of the big machine makers, like Honeywell, we’ve had Microsoft who has their Azure Quantum platform where people could code, so it has a business focus too. Anyone who listens to it is going to hear about technology, what’s emerging and what's new, but also what it means to them, what it’s going to mean to—in the case of Bitcoin, like what it would mean to basically—and what if cryptocurrency was cracked by quantum computer and everything to, “Hey, what are the use cases? What are the things that my company can start getting benefits from immediately or in the near term? We try to cover it all and make it somewhat understandable. [Laughter]

Kornik: Yes, I’ve given it a listen. It’s fascinating stuff. Thank you so much for your time today. Konstantinos Karagiannis, our Associate Director of Quantum Computing Services for Protiviti where he’s out there fighting the fight and helping our clients on a day-in, day-out basis to face the future with confidence.

Karagiannis: Thanks.

Kornik: Thanks, Konstantinos.

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ABOUT

Konstantinos Karagiannis
Director, Quantum Computing Services
Protiviti

Konstantinos Karagiannis is a Director with Quantum Computing Services at Protiviti. He is the host of The Post-Quantum World podcast series.

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Future of cities: The view from the Microsoft Technology Center

Future of cities: The view from the Microsoft Technology Center

In this video, Kathie Topel, a Director with Protiviti’s Business Performance Improvement practice, interviews Charles Drayton, the Chief Technical Architect and Healthcare and Life Sciences Lead at the Microsoft Technology Center in Chicago where he helps customers transform the way they engage their patients, employees and partners. Charles shares his views on healthcare, real estate and demographic shifts spurred by COVID, and introduces his special guest Pria, a healthcare robot. Watch above.


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FUTURE OF CITIES: THE VIEW FROM THE MICROSOFT TECHNOLOGY CENTER - Video transcript

Joe Kornik: [Music] Welcome to the Vision by Protiviti interview. I’m Joe Kornik, Director of Brand Publishing and Editor-in-Chief of VISION by Protiviti, our new quarterly content initiative where we put megatrends under the microscope and look far into the future to examine the strategic implications of big topics that will impact the C-suite and executive boardrooms worldwide. In this, our first topic, The Futures of Cities, we’re exploring the evolution urban areas are undergoing post-COVID and how those changes will alter cities over the next decade and beyond. Today, I’m joined by Kathie Topel, a Director in Protiviti’s Business Performance Improvement Practice, and Charles Drayton, the Chief Technical Architect and Healthcare and Life Sciences Lead at the Microsoft Technology Center in Chicago where he helps customers transform the way they engage their patients, employees, and partners. Kathie is going to be doing the interviewing today, so I’m going to turn it over to her to begin. Kathie, it’s all yours.

Kathie Topel: Thanks, Joe. Welcome, Charles. I’m so glad that you could join us here today. I will just start off by saying if you could tell us a little bit about the Microsoft Technology Center and what your actual role is there.

Charles Drayton: Yes. At the Microsoft Technology Center, I am the Chief Technical Architect in the Chicago Office. I’m also the Worldwide Healthcare Experience Lead for all of the MTCs. So, what the MTC is, as a Microsoft Technology Center, think of it as a people, place, and process. So, when it comes to people, we have an entire team of technical architects who cover the entire breadth of Microsoft technology. When it comes to places, there are places like the MTCs, and we have about 40 of them, or more than 40 of them, worldwide. In each place, we have a number of replica facilities. In Chicago, for example, we have a replica healthcare space that looks just like a hospital and that is designed to showcase not just the future of technology, but some of the technology innovations that we’re doing today that customers can take advantage of. When it comes to process, we can help organizations with a wide variety of subjects. We manage hackathons. We can do architecture design sessions. We can do strategy briefings. We can give you demonstrations of brand-new technology or existing technology. So, there’s quite a bit that we do at the MTCs.

Kathie Topel: Charles, when you hear the topic “Future of Cities in 2030 and Beyond,” what’s the first thing that comes to mind for you?

Charles Drayton: I think there are probably two things that come to mind to me. First is sustainability and the second is connectiveness. So, sustainability, I think anyone who’s been following the news, you understand that one of the big challenges of our time is on sustainability, green energy, the environmental crisis that we have right now. I think we’ve taken our eye off the ball a little bit with what’s happening with the pandemic, but I think very soon, it’s coming back to the forefront. So, in 2030, I think there’s going to be the end result of a significant push towards building the future city in a way that can be energy efficient, that can be self-sustaining. Things that can be green in nature that not only are designed to be zero emissions but to be negative emissions, and it’s actually one of the things that we’ve committed to doing at Microsoft with our Microsoft campus in many of the offices that we own.
 
The second thing is connectiveness. I think increasingly, you’re starting to see the end of the office as we know it, and in place of that, we’re going to see more people who are permanently working from home. So, the question then becomes, “How is it that you can have the same experience at home that you would in the office?” We’ve already seen a trend towards that in the past several years, and I think by 2030, that’s going to be further accelerated to the point where a vast majority of people are most likely going to be primarily working out of their homes. So, I think having a connected hybrid virtual sort of space is going to be a major trend that you’re going to see by 2030.

Kathie Topel: We all know that the pandemic has impacted our thoughts of the future. What pandemic outcomes do you believe have altered the current view of the future of cities and beyond versus, let’s say, a pre-pandemic view?

Charles Drayton: Yes. I hinted at this with my previous answer a little bit, and I’m not going to say the office concept is fatally wounded. I think the office is never going to go away, but I think there’s going to be a significant shift in how people work. We’re going to see more of a shift towards a hybrid workplace where you have some people who are working in the office and some people who are working from home. That’s definitely going to be something that has proven to be successful during the pandemic when people were forced to do it that I think it’s here to stay. The other thing you’re going to see is as a result of that, you're going to see a fundamental shift in urbanization.
 
So, I think the trend — it’s funny how this works, where there’s always this migration path that goes from cities to suburb, suburbs to cities, cities to suburb, and it seemed to vary from generation to generation. I think what we were seeing, up until the pandemic, was a move away from the suburbs back to the cities. You started seeing these revitalizations of urban areas and downtown areas, and now, I think it’s trying to see the reverse of that again. The pandemic, I think, has forced people or compelled people to start thinking, “Hmm, maybe I need more space. If I’m going to be stuck with you, [Laughter] in that limited square feet all day every day, maybe we get a bigger bedroom,” right? So, I think we’re starting to see a move now towards more suburban areas, more rural areas. You’re seeing people now who have vacation homes. You just think, “My lake house might not be a bad place to live permanently.” I think you’re going to see something about permanent, or at least for this generation, shift towards that, but I think with that is going to come more demands for better infrastructure to support high speed internet in some of these places to support more services in some of these places because increasingly, they’re going to find that becomes a permanent location for a lot of people to do their business out of.
 
Then, finally, it’s going to quicken the development in general of rural areas. I think with some of the demographic shifts that are taking place where you see millennials and Generation Z people now moving out of places like San Francisco and moving more to rural areas, you’re going to see a quickening of the development of those areas than I think they had originally had planned because of the fact that they’re going to bring their job demands with them and there’s going to be a shift in labor force and labor demands that match that as well.

Kathie Topel: I know infrastructure has been in the news a lot lately. Multiple bills are being debated around making investments in infrastructure and modernizing large parts of our country. What do you see as a relationship between the future of infrastructure and the impact it will have on cities of the future?

Charles Drayton: Yes. I think there’s going to be kind of three things that we’re looking at. The first one is going to be, as I mentioned before, sustainability, connectiveness, so I talked a bit about that initially, but I think those are going to be key pillars of infrastructure. I think any investment in infrastructure, regardless of what happens with the bill currently being debated right now, it’s all going to come back to how it is that we’re able to narrow the gap between urban areas and rural areas. I think for a long time, the development in technology and development in the infrastructure in these urban [areas] has caused the development of that to outstrip the development of rural areas. I think in many respects, they’ve been left behind, but I think if this infrastructure thing works out, you're going to see a lot of investments in rural areas to really bring them more in line with what urban areas developed or with what urban areas have to offer now.
 
So, it’s going to be appealing to younger generations who, I think, are already starting to move to areas like that, and it’s also going to, I think, narrow everything from the education gap to the development gap, and this is something that is particularly powerful for minority communities or for poor communities who typically are over-represented in rural areas. I think it’s going to create more opportunities for them. I think it’s going to create a somewhat more equitable future if this is pulled off the way I think everyone is hoping for it to be. I think part of that, part of the end results of that is going to be things like the dispersing of the workforce.
 
So, once you have infrastructure available, that you have high speed internet in both urban areas, suburban areas and rural areas, I think it’s now going to make for a, I think, safer and more comfortable environment for generations of knowledge workers, and you’ll find that knowledge workers are increasingly outstripping a lot of the former blue-collar workers as those jobs start to shrink and you’re going to see that replaced with more of a knowledge-based workforce. The third, I think, is going to be finally starting to look at the internet as a commoditized utility.
 
I think for a long time, we saw that as luxury, and because we saw it as a luxury, it was difficult to think of it as something that was a driving force behind things like income inequality or performance differences within different communities. Like, why is it certain neighborhoods tend to have students perform better than others, and I think we’re starting to see research now that says the internet as a universal human right, is something that, when commoditized, can really go a long way towards levelling the playing field. So, I think a lot of the investments in infrastructure are really designed to help start closing some of these income and performance gaps that you see in a lot of these areas.

Kathie Topel: Charles, you shared at the beginning with us that the healthcare exhibit at the MTC is an amazing view into what can be possible. What influence will the possibilities for healthcare organizations have on the future of our cities?

Charles Drayton: Yes. I think we’ve already started seeing this. It’s funny, I’ve been in healthcare for a long time, and for many years, we had telehealth technology that we would try and sell to hospitals, and they will always, “No, it’s not really necessary. We don’t see ourselves as people who would ever really see patients outside the hospital or outside of the doctor’s office.” Obviously, that all changed with the pandemic, and similar to how people who had previously never really done online shopping, who are sort of resistant to it, suddenly discovers the joys of amazon.com for the first time, and they never go back because they’ve realized how easy it is. Sort of like my mother. My mother was sort of a person who would always go to the store no matter what. I’d say, “Amazon Prime.” She’s like, “But you can’t look at your groceries. Why would you do something like that?” Then, she realized she had no choice. She realized how convenient it is, and now, she can go back to the store anytime she wants; she’s not doing it.
 
I think it’s a very similar thing now where hospitals are beginning to realize that actually virtual care isn’t so bad. Actually, there are great opportunities to create a continuum of care that takes place. So, not only can we care for the patient when the patient is within our four walls, but we can continue the dialogue and we can continue the monitoring of the patient even after the patient is discharged or even after the patient leaves the doctor’s office, because many things that happen with the patient that will lead to complications, that will lead to readmission takes place after their discharge. Did they refill their prescription? Did they take their medication? Are they following through on post-discharge instructions? You had no real way of verifying that traditionally, but now with virtual care and ability to combine that with things like continuous vitals monitoring and having that sort of connected ecosystem of health makes it much easier to start getting a lot of these early signals from patients. So, is a patient taking 45 days to refill a 30-day prescription? If so, I want to know about that so I can do an outreach with them. If we have rehab, some sort of physical rehab for the patient and they have some sort of connected watch, are they taking the requisite number of steps? If they’re not, I want to know about that because it may mean that they’re not really following through on the post-discharge instructions. Are they weighing themselves regularly because they have to get their weight down to a certain level in order to qualify for a specific type of surgery? Are they on track to do that? A lot of these things take place at home, and increasingly, hospitals and healthcare organizations are realizing that and they’re starting to make more investments into it.
 
So, going back to this idea of future cities, when we start looking at the commoditization of the internet as a whole, and now, making internet available at little or no charge in all kinds of rural communities. Now, when you look at these underrepresented communities in terms of the number of hospitals that are there or the number of stores that are there that sell fresh foods, we’re now able to extend our ability to care even out to them. I think that’s another way of beginning to close the gap that has historically existed between vulnerable communities that are often rural communities, or even urban communities that aren’t close to hospitals or to fresh food sources and how do we bring that care to them to create a more equitable environment for wellness overall.

Kathie Topel: With the virtualization of collaboration, it’s changed the way we socialize, work, and live our lives. The ability to collaborate and share from anywhere allows each of us to make different choices now. How will these different choices impact real estate and what role might technology play a new trend to emerge for cities?

Charles Drayton: [Laughter] So, I’m glad you… it’s a very timely question you asked. I’ve been looking for some income property for a while. I believe, to diversify a little bit, and so I’ve been looking for these sort of multi-unit places and I’ve been consistently outbid anywhere in the south. Like, I cannot buy a home in Dallas. I cannot buy a home anywhere in Georgia. Every time I try, I’m sort of outbid by these all cash offers that are like 10% over asking, and I say that to say, from a real estate standpoint, people understand the fact there are some significant demographic shifts that are going on in terms of where people are moving and how people are living. I think some of the things that you’re seeing now are being manifested in this kind of rush for purchasing real estate in warmer climates or in more suburban areas and rural areas, and I’m definitely feeling the results of that. I think it’s going to lead to more demand for better infrastructure. Similar to some things I have been talking about throughout our conversation here, the demand for high-speed internet everywhere. So, not just in downtown Chicago do we get gig internet, but how do we get it everywhere and where does it show up everywhere because you’re going to see more of these virtual calls. So, I think you’re going to see increased support and demand for investment in infrastructure as we start seeing, from a real estate standpoint, more and more families moving to areas where, traditionally, they haven’t been. Those are some of the things from a residential standpoint that you’re going to see as a change or a shift when it comes to real estate. From a commercial standpoint, I think one of the things that you’re going to see is, I’m going to call it an urbanization of the suburbs.
 
So, as people start moving out into rural areas more and they start moving out to suburban areas more, you’re going to see a move away from urban areas of commercial offerings and bringing them more into suburban and rural areas. So, as Generation Z-ers and Generation Y, people tend to go, you’re going to see more restaurants and shops open up around them. So, you’re going to see a decrease in demand for commercial real estate perhaps in urban areas, but if you’re going to see an increase in demand for commercial real estate in some of these suburban areas as you start providing some of the comforts of the urban environment that they moved from into suburban environment. So, you’re going to start seeing perhaps — these are all of the guess that I have — the shrinking of major cities, and instead, the growth of these many metropolises in some of the satellite areas. I think that’s where a lot of commercial real estate opportunity is going to be. I think you’re also going to see a fundamental shift in retail as you’ve been seeing already, and this is just sort of exacerbated things a little bit more, but in really interesting ways.
 
So, I’ve worked with a couple of commercial of real estate companies and one of the things that they were sort of excited about with this is this shift away from malls as being places where you go and shop to malls as being centers of recreation, particularly around many of the suburban and rural areas where it’s not simply a place where you have these stores, but it’s kind of your work/play area. I think you’re going to see a resurgence of that in some of these rural places as organizations start creating these kind of satellite metropolis cities out of what were formerly fairly barren rural areas.

Kathie Topel: Charles, if you can leave our viewers with just one thought of “The Future of Cities for 2030 and Beyond,” what would that be?

Charles Drayton: I want to show you a little something here. I like to introduce you to Pria. Pria is a robot and Pria is something that was initially designed by a company that was acquired by Stanley Black & Decker. What Pria does is she’s a pill dispensing robot, and a pill-dispensing robot can do everything from having virtual meetings with the physician to dispensing pills, to monitoring your vitals. So, if there is a spike in something, if you have AFib, she’s able to give you an early intervention and say, “Hey, this might be something that is potentially a medical emergency.” I think Pria, and things like Pria, are going to be increasingly key components of the future, and that’s from the healthcare standpoint. I did something recently that talked about this idea of senior isolation. The fact that senior homes couldn’t get visitors for a full year, I mean that lead to a mental health crisis within senior homes, and one of the ways that we talked about addressing that was through senior gaming.
 
So, there are gaming leagues that are formed in places like Pennsylvania that create this virtual community among seniors where they can be connected to each other and to their loved ones, and to everyone else, even if they can’t physically be there. So, increasingly, you’re going to see this idea of community emoji and technology starting to be merged in a way where even if we are remote, we’re going to be closer together than ever. I think those are really good examples of that. So, my thinking is in the future, you’re going to see a stronger sense of community, but you’re also going to see more virtualization. So, you’re going to see the combination of the two of them in very unexpected ways, or since it’s 2030, I can be entirely wrong about all of it because technology moves that fast.

Kathie Topel: Thanks so much, Charles, for your insights here today and your participation. We truly appreciate it, and you brough us so many ideas for the future and we’re very, very excited for it. Thank you.

Joe Kornik: Thanks, Kathie, and thanks, Charles. Charles, a real rock star, brings his own visual aids with him, some real estate advice, and a little couple of jokes thrown in there for good measures. So, we always appreciate that levity, Charles. Thank you so much for your time today. We appreciate it.
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ABOUT

Charles Drayton
Chief Technical Architect and Healthcare and Life Sciences Lead
Microsoft Technology Center

Charles Drayton is the Chief Technical Architect and Healthcare & Life Sciences Experience Lead at the Microsoft Technology Center (MTC) in Chicago, Illinois. The MTC is comprised of 50 facilities worldwide that provide specialty consulting to help customers achieve more through innovation. Some of the core engagements available at the MTC include envisioning workshops, advisory briefings, change management seminars, architecture designs, Proofs of Concept, hackathons, and design thinking sessions to help customers optimize their investment in Microsoft technology. Charles is the creator and designer of the Intelligent Healthcare Experience, which is the largest showcase of healthcare technology anywhere at Microsoft. Charles has an extensive background in retail, manufacturing, and healthcare. Learn more about the MTC at www.microsoft.com/mtc

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How to build safer and more sustainable smart cities of the future

How to build safer and more sustainable smart cities of the future

Smart cities will create some $2.5 trillion of opportunity by 2025. The convergence of technology, such as AI, machine learning, and big data are disrupting how people move around cities and how cities interact with those people. In this video, VISION by Protiviti's Editor-in-Chief Joe Kornik discusses this and other smart city opportunities with three expert panelists: Vaibhav Ghadiok, Co-Founder and Vice President of Engineering at Hayden AI; Renee Autumn Ray, Strategy and Innovation leader at Conduent; and Jonathan Reichental, professor, bestselling author and smart cities expert. 


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HOW TO BUILD SAFER AND MORE SUSTAINABLE SMART CITIES OF THE FUTURE - Video transcript

Joe Kornik: Welcome to the VISION by Protiviti interview. I’m Joe Kornik, Director of Brand Publishing and Editor-in-Chief of VISION by Protiviti, our content initiative where we look into the future to examine the strategic implications of big topics that will impact the C-Suite and executive board rooms worldwide. This, our first topic, “The Future of Cities,” we’re exploring the evolution of urban areas that are undergoing post-COVID and how those changes will alter cities over the next decade and beyond. Today, we’re joined by a panel of smart cities experts, particularly when it comes to transportation, mobility, and sustainability, and how they all impact both the public and private sector. The disruption is already underway, of course, and changes are happening so fast that it’s often difficult to keep up. Fortunately, we’ve got three people here to help us make sense of it all.

Today, I’m joined by Vaibhav Ghadiok, Co-Founder and Vice President of Engineering at Hayden AI, developers of the first ever autonomous traffic management platform for cities. I’m also joined by Renee Autumn Ray, Strategy and Innovation leader at Conduent, where she leads partnerships for Conduent transportation, a technology company which includes payment processing enforcement and data analytics for public safety and transit. Finally, we have Jonathan Reichental, Ph.D., professor, bestselling author and smart cities expert. Thanks so much for joining me today. Jonathan, let’s start there with the study that I know you like to cite. It’s from Frost & Sullivan, which suggests, “Smart cities will create some $2.5 trillion of opportunity by 2025. The convergence of technology, such as AI, machine learning, and big data are disrupting how people move around cities and how cities interact with those people.

Let’s start where we are today, and then discuss what’s coming down the road. Where are the opportunities and how can we make sure that we’re building better, safer, and more sustainable cities of the future? I’ll open that question up to all three of our panelists.

Jonathan Reichental: Great to be here, Joe. This looks like it’s going to be the century of cities. We are now a majority urban planet, and over the next few decades, millions more will move into cities. Our cities have served us well generally. We identify with some big challenges, but they are now under considerable duress, whether it’s the ability to tap into clean, abundant energy, protect the environment, offer up transportation services, have a safe and healthy environment. These are all things that now we need to focus on, and we are beginning to focus on as the issues and challenges arise. The good news is, leaders around the world are embracing an urban future, recognize the needs of cities, and they’re beginning to invest and they’re beginning to look at technology in particular, things like artificial intelligence, internet of things, data in a very big way. We see amazing solutions, whether it’s in dynamic traffic signal systems to make traffic move more smoothly or sensors that detect whether water is healthy and air is healthy. We are in this incredible inflexion point, I believe, becoming really clear in my travels around the world where cities are becoming the focus of the human experience. The good news is, we get technology to meet it, but the challenges are big, and certainly, the opportunities are sizeable too.

Kornik: Renee, why don’t you share some thoughts around that same question?

Renee Autumn Ray: Sure. There are a couple of things that I think are really important opportunities for cities. One is that we know that travel behavior is something that is very much engrained and is very hard to change. Certainly with COVID, we’ve seen people are changing the way that they work, the way that they go to school, the kinds of errands they’re running. We’re still trying to understand how much of travel is going to go back to normal and how much of it is going to stay different. When we think about where we have spent a lot of our effort in dollars, it has been on commute trips, which are actually just under a fifth of all trips taken. I think this gives us an opportunity to focus on what should the entire mobility system look like for all kinds of trips and for all kinds of people. Something else, I think, is really important, is there are big economic shifts that are happening in the aftermath of COVID and they’re going to change what the tax base for a city looks like, is the way that they have been gathering revenue and spending money something that’s going to be able to continue in the future, or they’re going to have to think differently about what financial sustainability looks like and where they are drawing resources from, and how they are spending their budget in ways that are more equitable for the folks that live there.

Kornik: Interesting. Vaibhav?

Vaibhav Ghadiok: Sure. My perspective is more transportation related, so let’s look at where we are today. Bus speeds in pre-COVID Manhattan were less than five miles per hour. A typical job today is only accessible by about 27% of its metropolitan population in 90 minutes or less. Really, the transportation today, not very equitable for those people depending on public transportation as their primary means of transportation. It is not working. The system is not working for them. Lastly, we have an overburdened transportation system. Now, when you start thinking about fixing these problems, we are often thinking big, big infrastructure project, big capital expenditure, projects taking decades maybe. In the same breadth, we also talk about Smart Cities, so why not talk about smart expenditure and think small? What can be achieved with the technology today where we can deploy, say, mobile sensors, much like Hayden AI does, that are AI enabled and spatially aware. We have these sensors that we can mount on city fleet vehicles. As the vehicle goes through the city, it has a full understanding of what it has seen. It can observe things, report things. What impact can that have without large expenditure? That is where I think we have to go next or think next.

Kornik: I know both Hayden AI and Conduent are focused on the public aspect of this in terms of public transport and mobility, as well as other areas. Renee, if you could, talk to me a little bit about how public spaces could be different in cities of the future and why that’s so important that we get it right.

Ray: Yes, absolutely. Streets are, often times, a very significant portion of the total land available in the city. Virtually all of them are going to be public. They’re public spaces and they’re spaces for people to travel, but also to congregate and to gather. I think certainly, what we see in a number of cities implementing in terms of parklets or in terms of making a few blocks pedestrian only, either for certain days or even permanently, is something that is likely to continue and expand in the future. So, when you think about the role of a city as an economic engine but also a place where people want to have quality of life, they’re increasingly able to choose where they live and where they work based on those quality of life factors, you can see how challenging it is for city government to balance the needs of those mobility needs, the quality of life needs of their residents, along with just the prosaic things like can groceries get the freight they need to have delivered by trucks. There is a lot of pressure on this public resource, and I think that also creates opportunities for cities to say, if we’re going to change the balance of how much of our street network is given over to private vehicles, to private loading zones for deliveries, we have to balance that with being able to capture revenue  from the spaces that we leave available and make sure that if we open up spaces for residents to be walking, to be sitting, to be congregating, that we’re capturing the value of that in creating a better place for people to live in. Those are going to be really hard questions. They’re going to be very politically challenging questions, but there are places where we need government to be a leader in terms of helping us come to those decisions and make sure that cities are places that people want to live and are not just forced to live in order to have a good job.

Kornik: Vaibhav, I know this is a big part of Hayden AI’s VISION, of what’s possible in the future. If you could, share with me some of those possibilities and what their overall impact could be on the future of cities.

Ghadiok: Absolutely. Let’s talk about a few use cases and what is the impact, what is the potential impact for that. One of the first use cases we said is what’s called automated bus lane and crosswalk. There are cities with dedicated bus lane, people come in, park their cars, slowing down the buses, increasing ridership, increasing cost for the MTA. Now, what we’ve seen with limited pilots is bus speeds. We’ve been able to increase bus speeds almost by 55%, for instance, in the M14 Manhattan route. This impacts almost 44,000 people who use this bus route daily. So, massive impact, think small. It’s a small little mobile sensor, look at the impact it could have. Let’s look at another use case, bike lanes. If we enforce using the same technology, we enforce bike lanes, make sure it’s clear, give people an opportunity to ride their bikes in cities, increase the throughput of our streets, we can make this a lot safer. Parking, with our spatially aware sensors, we are able to see if there are parking spots that are empty. We can redirect people to those empty parking spots. What we have learned from survey after survey, that up to about 30% congestion in urban downtowns is caused by people circling, trying to find parkings. Again, massive impact with this technology. Lastly, what I can tell you is traffic signaling. We have outdated traffic signaling timing that causes more than 10% of traffic delays in most urban routes. Again, with more data, et cetera, we can make these traffic signals a lot more dynamic, again, have a massive impact on this without a lot of capital expenditure.

Kornik: We focused a lot so far on the public sector’s aspect of this. Jonathan, if you could, let’s talk a little bit about the private sector’s role in the future of Smart Cities in terms of both opportunity and what’s possible. Your perspective here is really valuable. One, there is so much potential for investment in this sector and two, smarter, more connected, and ultimately better cities are really a smart business, aren’t they?

Reichental: Yes, that’s very, very true. Everybody has a different sense of what a city is, but when you catalog it, you see that it’s a place that focuses on health, that focuses on buildings, on energy, on public safety, on telecommunications. It’s a very, very long list. In every one of those areas, there’s opportunity today. Each one is catching up with the private sector to deliver what communities expect, so there’s a catch-up period, but then there’s just these gaps of how can cities and governments deliver experiences that people are so used to in the private sector but don’t get in the public sector. Then, public sector is very much motivated to deliver better solutions because it reduces cost, which can be passed on to communities. It can create a better experience. It can get more people engaged in democracy and in the conversation. If you’re a private sector organization, this is a really wide open space for entering, bringing to the attention of mayors and city managers, incredible new ways of thinking about solving big, intractable issues, like transportation and congestion, and everything that goes with how you move people and goods around. This is remarkably open.

Lastly, I suppose, for the private sector and as a benefactor of the public sector, there are more tools in the tool kit. There are more ways now to deliver solutions. In the public sector, the digital transformation is just beginning, and if we can combine new thinking about the future, focusing on people and quality of life, I think there’s a very healthy future for private organizations to participate. The data certainly reflects that. I just say finally, here’s an amazing industry, the public sector industry for start-ups and new companies to enter where they didn’t enter before. This is an area of the economy that I’m actually quite bullish on. I think if we do a series of the right things, incorporating the right technologies, we’re looking at multi-trillions of new opportunity over the next decade and beyond.

Kornik: Yes, Jonathan, that’s a really good point and a really good segue way into my last question. Before I let you all go, we call this program “VISION by Protiviti” because we like to get really smart people with innovative ideas to talk about their vision of the future. Smart cities and transportation in 2030, what’s possible when you think about the next decade, and even beyond when we talk about the future of cities? Renee, why don’t you start us off?

Ray: Sure. When I think about what I want the future of cities to be like, I think of it more as an experience than something that I’m going to see. I think about feeling less stressed when I’m travelling through a city, whatever kind of errands I’m running. I think about if I’m driving in a city, having a more seamless experience to get in my car, map my route, reserve a parking space, pay for it, and have that be something that’s really easy and seamless for me to do. I think that one of the ways that we can get there, besides just technology, is by having measurable outcomes so that we can hold cities to a standard of ensuring that they are improving mobility options across different modes for different people, whether we’re talking about how easy is it to get to work, how many jobs can you access from your home, how easy it is for you to get to the grocery store, take your kids to drop them off at daycare; and being able to collect and evaluate data with technology is going to be a big part of how we’re able to do that.

Reichental: I’d like to actually build on what Renee is saying. A lot of what will happen over the next decade, some of it will be invisible as we build out the digital infrastructure to support a lot of the experiences that community members will have, the improved experiences. If you want to know about what we’ll see, how it will look differently, I want to point to two big areas. I think these will resonate with people. The first one is the introduction of autonomous vehicles at scale. I believe that we are a looking at a driverless feature because I’ve experienced driverless cars and I’m absolutely convinced that our roads will be populated by an assortment of new innovation that has been driven by computers, not humans. That allows us to change how we design and plan cities, it’s a really big deal. The second visible area that I think we’ll all notice, and it will happen faster I think than we anticipate, will be the introduction of drones, both on the street and also in the skies. It’s a space where the evidence is so clear now that this is coming, I would encourage not only the private sector but the public sector to begin the preparation for that. We need the legislation and the regulation. We got to be ready for it.

Finally, my final point would be, we can’t look out to the future without thinking about resilience and the particular changes in the climate, which over the next 10 years will be increasingly more visible. Cities will be making steps and taking steps, in fact, to mitigate a whole range of natural issues and the human made issues. By the way, I have one more, sorry, which is, it goes back to something Renee said very early on in our conversation. I think based on what I’m seeing in many major metropolitan areas around the world is more focused on place making. I like to think about this as we built cities in the 20th century largely around the automobile. The 21st century is about building cities around people. I think visibly, you’ll see cities start to make sort of central areas, more pedestrian and more friendly to humans. Smart cities are ultimately about people experiences. We shouldn’t get distracted by the technology. If it works well, it’s invisible.

Ghadiok: Let me give a technologist point of view. [Laughter] There were some remarkable points made by both Renee and Jonathan. Let’s first talk about maybe autonomous driving. I think there have been massive advances in machine learning, especially applied to computer vision in the past decade, which has enabled various applications. However, safety critical applications that require, say, six nines reliability, such as autonomous driving, remain elusive. I do believe somewhat guided autonomous driving or under supervision is going to happen in the next few years on highways, however city centers remain a challenge. One way to solve that problem is to use the kind of AI sensors, AI innate sensors to provide data to these semi-autonomous, autonomous vehicles so they know what to expect at an intersection 300 meters before they even approach it, especially in areas where there’s conflicts. There are a lot of, again, playlists for having these intelligent sensors spread across the city. Another idea to build upon what Renee said a little earlier in this segment was about cities and how cities — the way I would think about is how they can be made programmable so to speak. Can we change a certain area from a loading zone to a fair to maybe a soccer field on Sundays? Now, what’s going to enable this change is a geospatial capability. Now, everybody in their hands is going to have localization capability of about 50 centimeters of beta by the end of this decade or potentially sooner. Now, as my vehicle goes down the road, it can point to me, here is a vacant parking spot even though there is no marking or anything. We can visually change the nature of cities from one hour to the next, almost program them so to speak. I think that is a future that we can definitely expect before 2030. The autonomy, I would say let’s give it a decade or more. [Laughter]

Kornik: Thank you so much for all of those futuristic outlooks. It’s an exciting time, the technology moves very fast. We’re trying to keep up with it. Thank you so much for allowing us to get a better sense of how it’s moving and what’s coming. Vaibhav, Renee and Jonathan, thank you so much for your time today. I really appreciate you participating in our program and thanks again. 

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Renee Autumn Ray is a Strategy and Innovation leader at Conduent.

Renee Autumn Ray
Conduent
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Vaibhav Ghadiok is Co-Founder and Vice President of Engineering at Hayden AI.

Vaibhav Ghadiok
Hayden AI
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Jonathan Reichental is a professor, bestselling author and smart cities expert.

Jonathan Reichental
Professor, author
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For Rent: San Francisco’s empty offices and the future of central business districts

For Rent: San Francisco’s empty offices and the future of central business districts

Saving the City: Remaking the American Metropolis is a multi-part documentary series focused on finding a better future for American cities and the people who live in them. VISION by Protiviti partnered with Saving the City to create exclusive videos for our Future of Cities topic. Ron Blatman, Executive Producer of Saving the City, also created and produced the acclaimed Saving the Bay, a four-part PBS series on the history of the San Francisco Bay, which continues to air. The series, narrated by Robert Redford, received four regional Emmy awards, including Best Documentary. For VISION by Protiviti, Blatman produced the video above on the future of central business districts post-pandemic and empty offices in San Francisco in particular. Blatman sat down with VISION by Protiviti’s executive editor Joe Kornik to discuss those issues, which are the subject of the exclusive video. Read the interview below.


ABOUT

Ron Blatman
Executive Producer
Saving the City

Ron is Executive Producer/Producer of Saving the City: Remaking the American Metropolis, a documentary series in production highlighting successful and unsuccessful examples of urban redevelopment throughout the U.S. and Canada focusing on downtowns and nearby neighborhoods. For more information, including preview videos, go to Savingthecity.org.

Kornik: The pandemic hit cities hard, and we’ve heard a lot of dim forecasts about their future. What’s your take on the future of cities here in the United States?

Blatman: Some of the pronouncements about the death of cities are overblown—just look at the recent census numbers, which were better than expected in a lot of cities. New York, which was pronounced near dead—and not for the first time, mind you—due to the pandemic, grew by a staggering 630,000 people to reach 8.8 million, its highest number ever. The 10 largest cities all got bigger this past decade, and eight of the 10 grew at a faster rate this decade compared to the last. Philadelphia returned to over 1.6 million people and Cincinnati topped 300,000 again. As for the future, it's going to be a lot more competitive for cities, not just with each other, but particularly with other locations in and around their metropolitan areas. Cities everywhere will be fighting off the allure of suburbs as people's preferences evolve. So-called superstar cities such as San Francisco, Seattle and New York will remain attractive—just think about this fact: At a time when the media was full of stories about a mass exodus from San Francisco, the amount of venture capital invested in the city during the first half of 2021 was greater than in any of the 49 states besides California, according to a report from PitchBook Data and the National Venture Capital Association. And number two, by a large margin, was the San Francisco Peninsula, which includes Palo Alto and Silicon Valley. But alternatives are growing, too—Austin, Dallas, Nashville, Charlotte and Raleigh, among others. 

Kornik: It seems to me that real estate, especially corporate real estate, will be one of the biggest keys to whether cities, specifically their central business districts, will be successful and vibrant places in the future. Do you see companies flooding back into downtown offices or do you think the work-from-home model is here to stay?

Blatman: I don't think anyone really knows what the corporate landscape will look like two or three years from now. Let's start with the premise that cities are constantly changing. Even before COVID, many central business districts had become less centers of commerce and more centers for culture and entertainment, dining/shopping, even recreation and education. Look at San Diego, which over the past 40 years has built almost an entire downtown based on tourism and entertainment that is also now home to over 40,000 people. Most business is transacted on the north side of the city and beyond, not downtown. The majority of law firms and every big accounting firm, including Protiviti, has their offices north of the city center. But now, another use is about to enter the mix—due to the availability of land and willing developers in a hot regional market, downtown San Diego is poised to become a major bioscience center. As for downtown offices, I think it depends on the company. We've seen companies remain committed to urban locations—just look at the huge commitments made by big tech companies like Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple and also Disney to New York during the pandemic and to places such as Austin, Nashville and Chicago. We've also seen some companies say they don't need a HQ and can operate virtually from anywhere with management and employees decentralized. We really don't know what will happen right now because with the resurgence of variants a lot of office re-openings are being delayed to 2022.

Kornik: The video focuses on San Francisco, but really Any City, USA is in the same situation when it comes to empty office buildings in downtown. What can cities do, if anything, to make sure their business districts do come back?

Blatman: The big issue is not the vacancy rate for space but the occupancy rate of employees. If companies continue with a two to three days a week in the office model, that's 40% to 60% fewer people on the streets every week, which could have a devastating effect on all the small businesses that make up a city's economic ecosystem. How do restaurants, service businesses and even retailers survive this?  How about the effect on mass transit systems? The hope is that enough companies are growing so their offices may be filled five days a week but with a lot more individuals using the same space. As for what cities can do, cities need to take care of things cities are supposed to do—make sure their streets are clean and safe, services are predictable, and access is as frictionless as possible. To be successful, cities will have to be places where people want to live and not just work or play. They are also going to have to redouble their efforts to offer amenities that aren't found elsewhere in a region such as public events, cultural offerings and dining/shopping/entertainment options. Will cities come back? History says yes. People and ideas have always congregated in cities; people are social animals. But the key will be making sure cities offer a good quality of life since alternatives are now more prevalent.

If companies continue with a two to three days a week in the office model, that's 40% to 60% fewer people on the streets every week, which could have a devastating effect on all the small businesses that make up a city's economic ecosystem.

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Big Data or Big Brother? Streetlights versus surveillance in San Diego's smart city quest

Big Data or Big Brother? Streetlights versus surveillance in San Diego's smart city quest

Saving the City: Remaking the American Metropolis is a multi-part documentary series focused on finding a better future for American cities and the people who live in them. VISION by Protiviti partnered with Saving the City to create an exclusive video for our Future of Cities topic. Ron Blatman, Executive Producer of Saving the City, also created and produced the acclaimed Saving the Bay, the four-part PBS series on the history of the San Francisco Bay, which continues to air. The series, narrated by Robert Redford, received four regional Emmy awards, including Best Documentary. For VISION by Protiviti, Blatman produced the video above on how San Diego’s smart streetlights unintentionally became a major privacy concern for citizens. Blatman sat down with VISION by Protiviti’s executive editor Joe Kornik to discuss the issues presented in the exclusive video. Read the interview below.


ABOUT

Ron Blatman
Executive Producer
Saving the City

Ron is Executive Producer/Producer of Saving the City: Remaking the American Metropolis, a documentary series in production highlighting successful and unsuccessful examples of urban redevelopment throughout the U.S. and Canada focusing on downtowns and nearby neighborhoods. For more information, including preview videos, go to Savingthecity.org.

Kornik: Cities all over the world are becoming more digitized and connected, and all this data can do unbelievable, previously unthinkable things. And they’re getting smarter every day. What’s the potential for smart cities?

Blatman: Everything seems to be making use of big data and cities are no exception. When used for the right reasons, all this data can help make cities run more efficiently, be more environmentally sound and offer better services to their citizens. For example, transportation usually heads the list of smart city applications—everything from Ubers and Lyfts to improving traffic flow through sensors, to helping mass transit run more efficiently for riders and operators. Sensors and monitors are also used to improve water and sewer service as well as to keep track of air pollution. And big data can help in allocating city services and resources to areas that need them most. But there's a downside, too. Google planned to build its own smart city in Toronto starting in 2017, but the level of surveillance and data gathering was so invasive and intrusive that public outcry led the project to be downsized from 190 to 12 acres. Google pulled the plug on the entire project in 2020.

Kornik: A big part of smart cities and all that data comes from cameras located all over cities. In this video, you focus on San Diego’s smart streetlights that came under fire and were ultimately disabled after the ACLU and other groups cited privacy concerns. What went wrong?

Blatman: San Diego fell victim to chasing the shiny new object of being a "smart city" without really knowing what they were getting into—the notion that just capturing reams of data would automatically make a measurable impact in improving the lives of its citizens. When it came time in 2016 to update its streetlights with more efficient LED bulbs, the city decided that 3,200 of 14,000 new poles would not just house streetlights but also a whole array of sensors that were promised to provide timely information on traffic flow, parking availability and environmental conditions, as well as video and sound recordings. San Diego was so excited about this new technology that they used their smart streetlights as an economic development pitch, touting the city as being in the forefront of the smart city movement. So, what happened? Most of the sensors didn't work and when they did, the city found the data not very helpful and often inaccurate. City officials found out they could easily buy better data from various tech companies. The only thing that really worked were the cameras. Ironically, San Diego police were not even aware of the video recording capability until more than a year after their installation, after a high-profile homicide occurred within range of the cameras. When it was suggested the camera recordings could help in the investigation, it touched off a firestorm because people began questioning what kind of surveillance system the city had installed. After over a year of protests, meetings and negotiations, the city froze the use of the cameras until rules and regulations could be drafted and approved by the city council. Final approval is still pending.

Kornik: San Diego is such an interesting case, and really, I think the world is watching. Ultimately, when it comes to privacy, where’s the line? When does security become surveillance?

Blatman: How far to go with privacy protections is a difficult question because there are no right answers. For every group in San Diego and elsewhere concerned about too much surveillance, there are others in cities such as Atlanta, Baltimore and St. Louis that are pleading for more cameras to deal with rising crime. A separate question is, do cameras really reduce crime or do they just shift it to other places as some studies have shown? The technology genie is out of the bottle whether we like it or not—and it's not just cameras. One Ohio company was using high-powered military spyware it developed for aerial surveillance in Baltimore. Apart from privacy issues, even that didn't reduce crime, so Baltimore canceled the program. And more recently, St. Louis declined to use the same system. Then there are the systems in use outside of the United States. There are at least 200 million AI cameras in use throughout China. The government is reportedly building a system where facial recognition can identify any of the country’s 1.4 billion citizens within three seconds. A 2021 study by Surfshark, a data and VPN service company based in the British Virgin Islands, showed that Beijing and Shanghai had the highest number of surveillance cameras of any city in the world, with over one million cameras each. London is third with about 628,000 cameras in use. By contrast, Sydney has about 60,000. The most in the U.S. is New York with about 31,500. What we need to do is make sure the rules of use are clear. Who sees the data, who uses the data and for what purpose? Who owns the data and for how long is the information stored? The solution for many cities, led by Oakland and San Francisco and now being adopted by San Diego, is for a broad group of tech experts, city officials, community leaders and the police to sit down together and draft rules governing the use of these technologies. I think we’ll see a lot more of that in the future.

San Diego fell victim to chasing the shiny new object of being a "smart city" without really knowing what they were getting into — the notion that just capturing reams of data would automatically make a measurable impact in improving the lives of its citizens. 

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MRT Jakarta CEO: Massive metro project will make the city more mobile, modern and sustainable

MRT Jakarta CEO: Massive metro project will make the city more mobile, modern and sustainable

There’s a lot happening in Jakarta, Indonesia’s most populous and—for the time being, at least—capital city. Jakarta, the city of nearly 11 million people on the island of Java, is sinking as much as ten inches per year due to the excessive extraction of groundwater because piped water is not readily available. The World Economic Forum says nearly all of North Jakarta could be under water by 2050. In 2019, Indonesian officials announced an ambitious plan to relocate the capital to Borneo, but that plan is on hold due to COVID-19. What’s not on hold is another ambitious plan: building the country’s first underground transit system to combat Jakarta’s notorious pollution and traffic congestion problems, which cost the city some 67.5 trillion IDR ($4.9 billion USD) annually, according to the Indonesian Ministry of National Development Planning. Construction of Jakarta’s Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) system began in 2013, but the first concept of a metro in Jakarta dates back to the 1980s. The first phase of the project finished in 2019 and has already exceeded its target of serving 65,000 passengers per day, says William Sabandar, Jakarta MRT’s CEO. VISION by Protiviti’s Editor-in-Chief Joe Kornik caught up with Sabandar to discuss the ambitious project that’s been nearly 45 years in the making and how it will impact Jakarta’s future.


ABOUT

William Sabandar
CEO
MRT Jakarta

A passionate professional enjoying 25 years of leadership roles in public and private sectors, in various development fields: transport infrastructure and system, regional development, disaster and crisis management, energy, forestry and climate change.

Kornik: I know this has been a very long-term project with lots of planning and multiple phases. Can you update us on where the project stands right now, what the timetables are and what’s next for the project?

Sabandar: The idea started back in 1985; then the first feasibility study came in the 1990s, we started the work in 2013 and completed the first phase in 2019. That phase consists of 16 kilometers in South Jakarta and opened in March 2019. Now we are in the second phase where we continue with another 12 kilometers in North Jakarta, with a plan to complete it some time in 2027. By 2027, Jakarta will consist of a north-south network of 28 kilometers. We are also preparing the implementation of the third phase, which runs 31 kilometers east to west. Construction on that phase is scheduled to launch next year and be completed sometime in 2029 or 2030. At the same time, we are preparing for the fourth phase: This is also in South Jakarta and is about 12 kilometers and scheduled to be completed in 2029. We have also begun planning the fifth phase, as well. So, that’s where we are right now.

Kornik: This is a very ambitious project. I wasn’t even aware there was a fifth phase scheduled…

Sabandar: Well, we haven't announced the fifth phase just yet, but we will soon. And then there’s also a sixth phase. After the north-south and east-west lines are complete, we will have the circle, the inner line and the outer loop line. Once completed, the metro will consist of 325 kilometers covering 10 lines serving some 30 million people in the Jakarta region by 2030. This is how the MRT will become the backbone of Jakarta. One of the things the MRT will bring to the city is a new landscape. Jakarta will move from a very centralized city to one that is serving entire areas being developed along the metro line. In Jakarta, the development has always followed the roads, but the MRT master plan is to develop new towns along the rail stations. We call this “transit-oriented development,” and it will change the landscape of Jakarta in the future.

Kornik: I know there are more than 2.5 million daily commuters in central Jakarta. Most rely on private vehicles, making Jakarta one of the most congested—and polluted—cities on the planet. Is this why this project is so crucial to not only the city of Jakarta but the entire region?

Sabandar: Before 2019, Jakarta was one of the most congested cities in the world, ranked No. 3 by the TomTom Traffic Index. After 2019, Jakarta moved to No. 10. And just last year, it moved all the way to No. 31. And, of course, congestion is related to pollution, which also has improved, although we are aware some of that could be due to COVID. But those congestion numbers demonstrate how the arrival of MRT and people starting to move to public transport have already had an impact. But this is not just because of the MRT alone; since 2019, we’ve started to integrate the MRT into existing public transport, including the bus rapid transport, the commuter rail lines and all the feeder systems. When we’re through, nearly all residents of Jakarta will be within 500 meters from public transport. I believe that if you want to create a good city, a modern city, you must create a good public transport system. If you create a reliable system, a clean system and a safe system, people will use it. And when you integrate it with the feeding systems, it creates almost an entirely new city.

Once completed, the metro will consist of 325 kilometers covering 10 lines serving some 30 million people in the Jakarta region by 2030.

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People sitting in Jakarta rail car

Kornik: As you say, this is an entirely new concept for Jakarta. Do you think it's enough to just build it or do you think there has to be some education to convince people to use it?

Sabandar: Very interesting that you ask that because yes, that was among our concerns: How do we change the culture of how people travel? We had some public transport and people just weren’t using it. But when we launched the first MRT line in 2019, we had many people riding it right from the start and it exceeded our initial ridership goals. I think people were happy that Indonesia finally had its own metro. For years, if we wanted to see this kind of modern transport, we’d have to go to Singapore. Also, the MRT in Jakarta set a new standard of service. We knew our on-time performance, for example, must be 100%. I told the team that you must give the extra mile of service to all the people; every single passenger gets treated with respect. There’s no rubbish on the trains or in the stations. And we have a very dedicated staff; they do not sit. Even I stand while on the train to set an example. We are creating a new culture of public transport that we never had before. You educate the community by showing evidence that public transport can lead to a more civilized life; this is how a modern city works.

Kornik: You touched on pollution briefly, and Jakarta’s track record has not always been great when it comes to the environment. I've heard you talk about how sustainability is key for all future projects. So, tell me a little bit about what the MRT can deliver in terms of sustainability and the environment?

Sabandar: It’s a big part of our mission; we changed our motto recently to highlight how the MRT is promoting mobility and ensuring sustainability, and we defined it as core to our long-term strategy for 2030. We have a sustainability committee that screens all the projects we do, and we started to also produce a sustainability report for the work that we do. We can already see from the evidence that Jakarta has less traffic. You can see blue skies now, and we used to only see smoke in Jakarta. Again, part of that is due to less travel during the pandemic, of course, but it started even before that. Sustainability, for me, is a practice that we do now for future generations to reduce congestion, to reduce emissions, and to reduce pollution.

Sustainability, for me, is a practice that we do now for future generations to reduce congestion, to reduce emissions, and to reduce pollution.

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Inside Bandaran station, Jakarta
Jakarta MRT Bundaran station.

Kornik: Let’s talk about the unique environmental challenges that are facing Jakarta. The city is sinking several inches a year due to groundwater that’s being removed by residents, illegally in most cases. I’m thinking that would present some unique challenges building a transit system?

Sabandar: Yes, for sure there are some challenges in terms of construction and tunneling, but we cannot afford not to build MRT. It’s vital for the region, so we just need to be more careful. We have the best technology, but it's more challenging, and it's more costly because we’re dealing with soft soil and sediment all over Jakarta. The experts are working on it, and we have some learnings from other places, such as Amsterdam. For me, this is not an issue because there is a population that needs MRT; it's just a matter of making sure we have the proper technology to be able to manage the environment correctly. There’s another challenge with building the second phase and that’s that the construction is happening in the north where a lot of Jakarta’s heritage sites are located. So, we are, for sure, also managing that very carefully.

Kornik: And because Jakarta is sinking, I know there’s been a lot of talk about moving the capital to Borneo. Assuming that plan goes through, what impact would that have on the MRT?

Sabandar: I think it’s a big opportunity. Jakarta is the largest city in the Southern Hemisphere. So, if the government decides to move the capital, I think it gives us the chance to redevelop Jakarta in a more sustainable way. The city has a lot of government buildings, which I think could be repurposed or turned into green areas. We could reposition Jakarta as a cultural city, a sustainable city and as the economic center of the region. I look at Australia, which has Sydney and Canberra, and the United States, which has New York and Washington, D.C., as examples. If it happens, I envision Jakarta’s future as an economic and cultural hub with less traffic, less pollution… and less politicians.  

Kornik: You just touched on it a bit, but paint a picture of Jakarta in 2030 or 2035, once the entire MRT project is complete. What will be the overall impact on the city, the region and its people?

Sabandar: The trajectory of Jakarta being a sustainable, modern and mobile city by 2030 is set. By that time, the structures of the MRT and its integration with public transport will be complete. Currently, only about 20% of Jakarta residents are using public transport; by 2030 we think that number will be more like 75%. So, I believe we are changing the landscape of mobility in Jakarta, and new urban regeneration projects along the line will create entirely new communities and a new vibrancy and culture for the city. So that is my vision of Jakarta’s future. That is the impact of the MRT.

75%

Currently, only about 20% of Jakarta residents are using public transport; by 2030 we think that number will be more like 75%.

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Skyscrapers circa 2030: What’s their place in the future city?

Skyscrapers circa 2030: What’s their place in the future city?

Verticality has always been a part of ancient, old and modern cities. The urban fabric of cities like London, New York and Shanghai has evolved with a different vertical form dominating the cityscape over time. The modern-day skyscraper shadows over cathedral spires and civic monuments that once took the crown in the cityscape. The skyscraper is a unique aspect of cities. And it is more than just a means to extract maximum profit, high density and efficiency from a small parcel of land in the city. The skyscraper has an inevitable cultural significance as a shaper of a city’s image, a landmark for urban dwellers and a marker of a specific era.

Over the last two decades, there has been a global boom in skyscraper construction. Eighty-seven of the world’s 100 tallest buildings today were all completed and opened since 2000, according to The Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat. Of the top 10 tallest buildings, seven are located in Asia, two in the Middle East and one in New York City. Dubai’s Burj Khalifa, completed in 2010, is the world’s tallest building.

ABOUT

Sidra Ahmed
Ph.D. Researcher and Writer
University College London

Sidra Ahmed

Sidra Ahmed is a Ph.D. researcher and writer at University College London within the Department of Geography. She is currently researching the branding and everyday life of commercial London skyscrapers, including the impact of the pandemic on urban life through the lens of life in the London skyscraper.



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And even beyond this ranking of the world’s 100 supertalls, skyscraper construction has also been booming since the early 2000s in typically low-rise European cities including London, Barcelona, Paris and Milan. London has seen a crop of new skyscrapers being constructed over the last two decades which has included new, tall buildings known as much for their design as their unique names such as The Shard, The Gherkin and The Cheesegrater (Leadenhall Building). London’s context is specifically what my research is responding to and where this piece is launching from in thinking about the future of cities in 2030 and how skyscrapers are an important part of the conversation.

Before thinking about the end of this decade, it is worth thinking about where we are right now. Over the last 18 months, every realm of our lives as we once knew it has been dramatically transformed due to COVID-19. The year 2020 was like no other. We remained at home in line with government-led or self-imposed lockdowns. We abandoned our daily commutes, offices and coffee runs for working from home, video conference calls, and adjusting to a new “normal.” Skyscrapers, now mostly empty spaces sitting in and towering above the deserted city, were the least of our concerns.

But the pause enforced on our lives also provided moments for those in academia and the real estate industry to think about the future of the skyscraper. In many virtual conferences and talks, the future of the city has been discussed. I’ve had multiple conversations with key figures in and of the world of London property and skyscrapers. It is from these conversations and events that I am drawing on to present a series of possibilities for the future cultural significance of the skyscraper: a look at the end of this decade based on the tumultuous beginning, 2020. Skyscrapers, old and new, have a long life span. Their resilience and adaptability to change is not so much a question as it is a necessity. So, what will the cultural significance of the skyscraper be in 2030?

London has seen a crop of new skyscrapers being constructed over the last two decades which has included new, tall buildings known as much for their design as their unique names such as The Shard, The Gherkin and The Cheesegrater (Leadenhall Building).

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London skyscrapers
London skyscrapers at sunset

The 2030 skyscraper will be…

Like a phoenix rising from the ashes

Cities across the globe in 2020 were hauntingly empty. Whether it was Park Avenue, the City of London or Shanghai’s The Bund, gone were the tourists snapping away, the office workers zipping through, the congestion of cars and urban life as we knew it. A new kind of visual iconography emerged around the empty city due to the pause the pandemic had caused. Skyscrapers were part of this visual iconography not just as distraught empty spaces but as monumental landmarks. Be it the Empire State Building, The Shard or The Eiffel Tower, skyscrapers around the world lit up their spires in tribute to key workers fighting on the front line. My words here might have reminded you of what was going on in your city. How it felt to walk the streets. What was open, what was closed. What buildings were lit up like beacons. The skyscraper’s cultural significance is of a landmark playing a visual role in the story of the city.

In 2030, city skylines will have new skyscrapers. By 2025, the City of London will be home to 10 new, tall buildings. New York has multiple skyscrapers currently under construction, including The Spiral in the new Hudson Yards district, which will house vaccine maker Pfizer’s headquarters when it is completed in 2024. The emergence of new skyscrapers will again play a visual role in the story of cities.

Because of the time lag that comes with skyscraper construction, the timing of when these buildings are completed will be attached to the narrative of a post-pandemic city. A narrative that will focus on their emergence in relation to the city’s economic state, future confidence and resilience. In London, 22 Bishopsgate, the city’s newest and tallest building, was completed during the pandemic at the end of 2020. The building has been lauded as an indicator of post-pandemic demand for the office and of post-pandemic office quality.

Like working at home

Over the last year and a half, the office, the café, the restaurant and the gym have all been substituted into one space—home. A global shift to remote working has been a huge indicator of how remote working can be just as productive as working in the office. The work-from-home shift that the pandemic has prompted has raised huge questions about the future of the office. But the skyscraper office is not a thing of the past; it will be an evolved thing of the future. It will still be an important place for social contact and collaboration. But firms will have new ways of working and using their office space.

As cities have started to open up in recent months—despite new COVID variants emerging—many firms in London skyscrapers are piloting hybrid working models where the week is divided between home and office. The 2030 skyscraper office will survive if it is a quality place of work that prioritizes wellbeing, employee amenities and hybrid working to attract talent. London’s 22 Bishopsgate is preparing a whole host of amenities as it gets ready to fully open—10% of the 62-storey tower is shared space. This will include an “Active Commuter Park” with bike spaces, showers and lockers; a gym with London’s highest glass climbing wall; wellness space, event spaces, co-working space, food market, restaurant, bar and viewing gallery.

The 2030 skyscraper office will survive if it is a quality place of work that prioritizes wellbeing, employee amenities and hybrid working to attract talent. London’s 22 Bishopsgate is preparing a whole host of amenities as it gets ready to fully open — 10% of the 62-storey tower is shared space.

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Aerial cityscape of London with Tower Bridge in the center
London skyline with The Shard in the background

Healthy

Health will be embedded in people’s behavior as much as it will be in the skyscraper’s infrastructure. The daunting portrayal of the skyscraper in 2020 as unsafe because it is a high-density space that could enable mass infection transmission is simply not true. But that perception has kickstarted the conversation about future skyscraper construction. Future skyscraper design and architecture will need to incorporate amenities that help prioritize health. This will include increased ventilation, breakout spaces that bring in fresh air, and green spaces like sky parks or gardens. The Spiral, New York’s skyscraper set to debut next year, will have vertical gardens wrapping around it.

Enhanced cleaning and hygiene practices will be part and parcel of skyscraper life whether that is through technology or individual behavior. Entering the skyscraper, calling an elevator, getting to your floor and into your workspace may be a touchless and safe experience thanks to new engineering innovations. Schindler, a global engineering firm for elevators and escalators, is currently developing new technologies such as an ElevateMe app, where building users operate elevators from their phones or with touchless call buttons. Automatic UV air purifying systems will be used for the elevator itself.

Contentious

Despite these optimistic projections about the cultural significance of the skyscraper, issues of sustainability and climate change will continue to be attached to its image. On the upside, the 2030 skyscraper is likely to be on its way to becoming carbon neutral. New York’s Climate Mobilization Act will have likely reached its goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions. As of 2019, 70% of New York City’s emissions were created by the built environment. By 2030, the Act aims for New York City’s 50,000 largest buildings to cut emissions down by 40%. Existing skyscrapers will undergo retrofitting to achieve energy efficiency as well as, to reflect my previous words, to be more attractive and “healthier” places to work.

The City of London’s 22 Bishopsgate has also championed the achievement of carbon reductions. The building has already met its embodied carbon (i.e., the building’s carbon footprint during construction) target reduction recommended by the London Energy Transformation Initiative (LETI) for a net zero building. 22 Bishopsgate will also install intelligent software systems where building users can see their energy consumption and be empowered to adopt sustainable behaviours. I have talked about the new skyscrapers that will be emerging over this decade and focused on their cultural significance, not on why they are emerging or whether they should be. But this topic of sustainability is an unchanged point of contention that will continue to be present in wider conversations beyond the skyscraper’s cultural value.

The skyscraper is one type of urban space that is home to offices, restaurants, retail, viewing galleries, lifts, lobbies, rooftops and shared spaces. Through the lens of the skyscraper, think about how urban spaces will change by 2030. New constructions will be emblematic of this decade that dealt with a pandemic and their visual significance will mark a time not just in the media or marketing but our personal memories. The future skyscraper will embody new ways of working and new ways of managing workspaces in the city. And it will continue to be contentious—admired for its presence in the urban fabric by some and simultaneously criticized for that presence by others.

40%

As of 2019, 70% of New York City’s emissions were created by the built environment. By 2030, the Act aims for New York City’s 50,000 largest buildings to cut emissions down by 40%.

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Australian mayors map out a post-COVID plan for the future of their cities

Australian mayors map out a post-COVID plan for the future of their cities

The way forward for Australia’s capital cities was on the docket at the Committee for Economic Development of Australia’s (CEDA) Lord Mayors’ Panel—The Future of Australian Cities, a virtual roundtable panel discussion among four Australian mayors, held earlier this year. The leaders of Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Hobart focused on the future of their cities, and to some extent, all of Australia, post pandemic and beyond. The Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA) hosted the panel earlier this year.

During the discussion, the mayors talked about emerging from COVID-19, lessons learned, and how their cities could forever be impacted. They also contemplated the way forward and the greatest challenges ahead for Australia’s capital cities.

“I know there's been a lot of talk about the demise of the city and the return to the suburbs because of the lockdown, but I think the demise of cities due to the pandemic has been greatly overstated,” says Clover Moore, Lord Mayor of Sydney. “I strongly believe that cities are going to remain the engine rooms of our economy, the centers of government, education, culture and entertainment.”

Moore is confident tourists will return and people will continue to come to Sydney and the other capital cities. “The reasons that Sydney was an attractive destination before the pandemic remain in place; Sydney continues to be a beautiful harbor city with a great climate and is a cultural and educational center. It is today and will continue to be well into the future.”

More than anything, Moore says, COVID-19 accelerated trends that were already occurring naturally in Sydney, including technological changes and changes to the nature of how and where people work. COVID sort of reinforced what was happening in the city already—people want to live near their jobs in neighborhoods that have a high level of amenities; they don’t want to be commuters traveling in from far-flung suburbs, she adds.

“We started to see these trends pre-pandemic, and we’ve been addressing them since way back in 2008 with our city and villages policy. We've invested in the quality of the parks and playgrounds, the recreation, the community facilities. We have leafy pedestrianized streets and people can walk or cycle to most local services and local employment and, of course, use public transport to connect to other parts of the metropolitan area,” Moore says. “We think it’s going to reinforce the policies we've been developing to make Sydney a place where people not only want to live but want to work.”

In Melbourne, Lord Mayor Sally Capp is bullish on the future but says the shakeout from COVID-19 in terms of the future of the city and the future of work is still to be determined. “We’ve certainly had a net fall in migration with more people moving into regional cities and choosing their lifestyle given that technology gives them the flexibility to do that.”

The rules have changed… and quickly. But even though Capp says she’s quite sure Melbourne will emerge from the pandemic in good shape, she’s not taking anything for granted and will stay laser focused on keeping the talent the city currently has as well as attracting new talent. Even at the height of COVID-19, Melbourne was busy approving some 800 planning applications worth some $2.3 billion (Australian) in both commercial and residential real estate. And Capp says city officials can play a significant role in what employment and economic opportunities will look like to help build sustainable communities going forward.

“Let's face it, it's not easy to replicate what we have in the capital cities, and particularly Melbourne,” Capp says. “So, building on those strong foundations is really important for the future of Melbourne, and working collaboratively with our regions, as we have done, will make sure that we all get the best benefit from the investments we’re making.”

CEDA, or the Committee for Economic Development of Australia, is an independent, membership-based think tank designed to identify policy issues that matter for Australia’s future and pursue solutions that deliver better economic and social outcomes for the greater good.

More than anything, COVID-19 accelerated trends that were already occurring naturally in Sydney, including technological changes and changes to the nature of how and where people work.

– Clover Moore, Lord Mayor of Sydney

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Pedestrianized bridge in Melbourne, Australia
Pedestrian and bike bridge in Melbourne, Australia

Investment

Investment, whether pre-, during or post-COVID-19, was a key theme that emerged during the discussion. The mayors were keenly aware of the power of the purse strings.

Adelaide Lord Mayor Sandy Verschoor says the city set up an economic development agency that’s led to a $500 million development in the Central Market, which is the city’s food district, and a $250 million development in North Adelaide intended to bring more businesses and more residents into the city itself. The North Adelaide development, she says, is designed to highlight the unique features of the city, specifically its 730 hectares of parklands—everything from forests and wetlands to heritage sites, sporting fields and playgrounds—that she says were so crucial during the darkest days of the pandemic.

“It was extraordinary to see how people connected with those open spaces,” Verschoor says. “And Australian cities offer lifestyles that other parts of the world just can't offer. We are incredibly livable cities, we are creative cities, and we are focused on the well-being of our citizens as something that we need to support.”

For all future development, Verschoor says Adelaide will continue to keep an eye on the overall well-being and lifestyle of its residents. “People are really rethinking what they want their lives to be, and I think that there's a lot of good reasons for people to both live in, and invest in, our capital cities.”

And that focus on lifestyle could provide an advantage for a smaller city like Hobart, says Lord Mayor Anna Reynolds. Recent data showed that Hobart had the lowest office vacancy of any Australian capital city in 2021. And it's still difficult to get commercial property because there is interest from a range of organizations to be based in Hobart.

“The pandemic, and its acceleration of technology adoption, has provided the opportunity for people to essentially be based anywhere… and maybe a smaller capital city becomes more attractive because of the lifestyle it provides,” Reynolds says. “As a city, we just have to make sure we’re ready for it.”

Housing

Another aspect all four mayors say they need to be focused on as they eye the future is affordable housing. “This really could turn out to be the burning-platform legacy and hopefully positive outcome story from the pandemic—that we finally, as a nation, come to terms with our housing crisis, and also the disparate needs of people looking for affordable housing in our cities,” Sydney’s Moore says.

“Sydney has had a very long-term plan of increasing affordable housing, and we have taken many actions to do that. But because Sydney residential real estate prices have become so expensive this is a big challenge for us,” Moore says. “But it's a high priority for us to continue to have people of all incomes being able to live and work in our city.”

In Melbourne, affordable housing is one of the key elements to the recovery and is central to how city officials plan for success in the future. “We are looking at how existing surplus accommodation can be made available for affordable housing, even social housing and subsidized housing,” Capp says. “One thing that could help bring Melbourne back is a plan around how we convert what might be empty commercial spaces to affordable housing. And we are also working on ways to accelerate affordable housing across our inner cities. So, these are all good examples of planks in the recovery and finding a way forward.”

Verschoor says all the mayors have been working—both individually and collectively—on housing and homelessness strategies for quite some time, lobbying at both the federal and state levels. But the pandemic put the issue on the front burner like never before.

“In terms of our own city, again, we had an extraordinary number of development applications and approvals that have gone through for a lot of those mixed-use developments,” Verschoor days. “And where there is mixed use, we have ensured, particularly of the things that we are investing in, that we have affordable housing.”

It's also important to be able to keep essential workers—hospital staff, university employees and students, police officers and firefighters—in the city. “These are the people we want to be able to continue to live in our city; and they want to live in the city, so we’re trying to make it as easy as possible for them to do so.”

Australian cities offer lifestyles that other parts of the world just can't offer. We are incredibly livable cities, we are creative cities, and we are focused on the well-being of our citizens as something that we need to support.

– Sandy Verschoor, Lord Mayor of Adelaide

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Affordable housing building
Newly constructed affordable housing

Climate

The learnings from COVID-19, particularly the coordinated and rapid response that was often required across federal, state and local governments, could serve as a catalyst for another huge challenge that’s facing not only Australia but the planet. Sydney’s Moore says for many years, Australia’s state and federal governments failed to address what she considers Australia’s biggest challenge—climate change.

“I think we can take the learnings from COVID and apply them to addressing climate change, which is overwhelmingly our biggest challenge we have to face for the future,” says Moore. “And I think the learning we took away is that collaboration had to happen; we simply had no choice. We can take those lessons from COVID and start to address climate, too. I think that's what we should all be putting our minds to right now.”

The biggest environmental threat in Hobart, Reynolds says, are the catastrophic bushfires, so it’s quite different from the pandemic in one sense. However, the rapid response, and the need for financial resilience, is very much the same. “Cash flow is a challenge for smaller capital cities. I think the financial sustainability of cities and making sure we're ready for shocks and extreme circumstances is the biggest lesson we can take out of this,” Reynolds says. “As we've seen with this pandemic, there are things that will happen that you just can't predict. So, I think making sure that there is enough support available for people to be able to cope in unpredictable and uncertain times is key.”

Echoing Reynolds comments, Adelaide’s Verschoor says: “I think one of the big lessons for us was that our business continuity plans were for emergency events, which are contained within a timeframe; a fire or flood or losing power, but they weren't designed to be ongoing for months and months,” she says. “There's been a really big rethink about how everything works together, and what we need to put in place if we're going to be facing ongoing and maybe even global interruptions that will inevitably come with climate change.”

Moore says Sydney’s biggest priority has been addressing climate as part of its Sustainable Sydney 2030 strategy. “We made a commitment to get our emissions down by 70% by 2030. And just last year, we partnered with three regional areas to purchase renewable energy from them,” Moore says. “Sydney is now powered by 100% renewable electricity, and it's based on energy coming from those wind and solar farms in regional areas.”

Given the accelerating climate change that’s happening across Australia, Moore says that the “COVID collaboration” will continue to be a key strategy in Australia’s future. The interaction with regional areas that were devastated by bushfires was an opportunity for Sydney to be able to support those regional communities by sending emergency workers and others to assist.

“I think what we will see in the future is greater collaboration, not only from different levels of government, but also that interaction between city and regional local governments,” Moore says. “I don’t think there’s any question that we realize we’re all in this together.”

100%

Sydney is now powered by 100% renewable electricity, and it's based on energy coming from those wind and solar farms in regional areas.

– Clover Moore, Lord Mayor of Sydney

Clover Moore is an Australian politician. She has been the Lord Mayor of the City of Sydney since 2004 and is currently the longest serving Lord Mayor of Sydney since the creation of the City of Sydney in 1842.

Clover Moore
Lord Mayor of Sydney
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Sally Anne Capp is the 104th lord mayor of Melbourne, elected on 18 May 2018 and sworn in on 24 May 2018. Sally is the first directly-elected female Lord Mayor of the City of Melbourne. She was the first woman to hold the post of Agent-General for Victoria in the UK, Europe and Israel. She has also served as the CEO for the Committee for Melbourne.

Sally Capp
Lord Mayor of Melbourne
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Sandra Maaike Jayne Verschoor is the Lord Mayor of Adelaide in South Australia since 12 November 2018. Prior to this, she was Deputy Lord Mayor and a General Manager at the City of Adelaide.

Sandy Verschoor
Lord Mayor of Adelaide
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Anna Reynolds was elected Lord Mayor of Hobart in November 2018, the third woman to be elected into the role. First elected as an Alderman to the City of Hobart in 2014, she was Chairperson of the Parks and Recreation Committee during her first term.

Anna Reynolds
Lord Mayor of Hobart
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Flying taxis and digital twin cities

Flying taxis and digital twin cities

Petra Hurtado is the Research Director at the American Planning Association (APA), heading APA’s research programs and foresight practice, where she’s responsible for expanding a future-focused research agenda and advancing planning practices that assist communities in navigating change. Her areas of expertise and research include urban sustainability, smart cities, emerging technologies, nature-based solutions, and environmental psychology. Hurtado sat down with VISION by Protiviti’s Editor-in-Chief Joe Kornik to discuss where she sees cities heading in 2030 and beyond.


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Petra Hurtado
Research Director
American Planning Association

Petra Hurtado is the Research Director at the American Planning Association (APA), heading APA’s research programs and foresight practice, where she’s responsible for expanding a future-focused research agenda and advancing planning practices that assist communities in navigating change.

Kornik:  I’ve read quite bit about how the pandemic was maybe the beginning of the end of cities. Are cities in real trouble?

Hurtado: I know there’s been a lot of talk about that how this is the end of the city, because now people can just move wherever they want, and work remotely, and how cities haven’t been able to adjust quickly enough. But, you know, there’s more to cities than just work and job availability. Cities have been around for a long time, and they’ve gone through many pandemics, and many changes because of pandemics, and they’ve survived—and thrived. There’s a reason people like to live in cities: They want a sense of community; and they want to be a part of the experience of a city. Often, it’s an experience you can’t find elsewhere. So, I think cities will adjust and will be just fine post-COVID. 

Kornik: Do you view COVID as a reset? Do you think they will be vastly different places when we get back to “normal”?

Hurtado: You know, to be honest, I hope they are different. It would be stupid, frankly, if we went back to the way they used to be because we’ve became aware of deficiencies in cities because of COVID. We have an opportunity to make some big changes. COVID highlighted many of the inequalities not everyone might have been aware of—people of color, for instance, were more negatively impacted by the pandemic. Their neighborhoods are often close to heavy industry and highways where the air is already polluted, which leads to conditions like asthma. Obesity rates tend to be higher because of the lack of healthy food options; and these are all planning issues that became more in focus because of COVID. We also saw how transportation behavior changed, especially during the lockdowns. We saw that it’s possible to mitigate climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. For the longest time, there was the assumption that behavior could never change, but COVID showed us it could. That’s one bright spot from the pandemic.

Kornik: Has COVID helped open planners’ eyes or have planners known these things all along? 

Hurtado: It’s probably a mix of both. I think we’ve tried to resolve a lot of the challenges with the same tools that created them, which is never a good approach. One of the APA’s roles is to research emerging trends and try to verify them with data to make sure some aspect is not just the latest fad or just something the media is talking about, but really verifying which trends will have high impacts in the future, which will result in disruption.

Kornik: What are some of those trends and disruptors you’re seeing right now?

Hurtado: One is drone technology and what that could mean for moving things—and people—around cities. Amazon and other delivery services are already piloting drone deliveries, but now we’re also talking about passenger transportation—flying taxis. This is a topic that has been discussed since the 1960s, and there was always this momentum where we thought it was going to happen and then it didn’t. OK, with the drone technology we currently have, this time it’s going to happen, for sure. We’re confident it’ll be here by 2028. Asia and Europe are far along on this; the UK is currently building its first “verti port” (vertical port) for flying taxis and Germany is going to roll one out next year. The U.S. is also trying to figure this out. The World Economic Forum is currently working on a blueprint with the city of Los Angeles on urban air mobility, and they have created the first set of policy recommendations, where things like safety, costs, noise pollution and verti port locations are being assessed. Planners need to be ahead of the policy. We need to embrace that disruption—use it to our advantage even. The emergence of Uber and Lyft disrupted cities to some extent and that’s not even a big innovation. Well, how much will air taxis disrupt cities? Probably a great deal. And speaking of Uber and Lyft, they are both in this air taxi space, as well.

I know there’s been a lot of talk about that how this is the end of the city, because now people can just move wherever they want, and work remotely, and how cities haven’t been able to adjust quickly enough.

Image
Flying taxi hovering above helipad in urban city
Unmanned passenger drone, 3D rendering

Kornik: That’s interesting. And it gets me thinking about urban mobility in general. When you look out to 2030 and beyond, will new technologies be able to serve mobility needs or will we still be relying on the same subway systems we’ve used for 115 years in New York City, for instance?

Hurtado: That’s a good question, and there’s a lot of uncertainty right now. Obviously, public transportation was hit really hard in this pandemic. A lot of that is really a question of political will, which obviously with the new administration in the U.S. there’s hope that public transit will be at the top of the infrastructure priority list. We also shouldn’t assume that when new technologies roll out that everything else goes away. In 2030, we definitely will still have many of the same trains, buses and subways. And people will still have their personal cars. The integration of these new technologies into everyday life is a process and is going to take a while. Another question is around cost and affordability. What about the people who can’t afford to use an autonomous vehicle or a flying taxi? My hope is that some of these new technologies will be able to close some gaps that we have in our transportation system. I think cities missed out on that opportunity with Uber and Lyft, which didn’t really help close the gap for neighborhoods without access to public transit. But most of these new technologies are being developed by the private sector so there’s not a lot that’s “public” about them. My guess is there will just be more options in the transportation system.

Kornik: How does AI (Artificial Intelligence) and all this newly available data factor in? Can it be used effectively by planners?

Hurtado: Yes, Big Data is here and there’s lots of real-time data available and that obviously can help to make the planning profession more agile, which it needs right now. Cities, in general, have not been very nimble—until COVID. Cities were able to adjust quickly. Shared streets, pop-up bike lanes and the restaurant seating on the street was all possible because of the emergency orders in the cities. Through the regular planning processes that would have probably taken years. That tells us something about planning and the lack of agility in planning. So, access to real-time data that can be processed with artificial intelligence can make planning more agile in a changing world. However, we need to be aware that there are going to be data gaps. We need to figure out how can we close these data gaps and how can we plan for the individuals in our communities who may not be represented in that data for several reasons. Yes, most people have smartphones nowadays, but some people still don’t, and some don’t have credit cards. These people can’t call an Uber and can’t use a shared bike. Many elderly people, for instance, don’t have—or don’t know how to use—a smartphone. So, we need to mind the gaps, I’d say. That’s incredibly crucial as we move forward with all this data. The technology can’t get too far ahead of the people.

In 2030, we definitely will still have many of the same trains, buses and subways. And people will still have their personal cars. The integration of these new technologies into everyday life is a process and is going to take a while.

Image
Server room with bright colored lights
Data center

Kornik: What are some other ways planners can use big data?

Hurtado: We can measure how people move around cities, for example. That data is being used to make decisions about urban planning. There’s this whole idea around what we call “digital twin” cities. Planners can work with real-time data, create a twin of a city and then use that to experiment and try things out before it would ever get implemented. There are some big tech companies developing this technology and the conventional wisdom is that by 2025, lots of communities will be working with digital twins. Creating a digital version of Chicago with all the relevant data, for instance, would give planners access to information and the ability to experiment on the impacts of policy changes. If we build this road, how will that impact our greenhouse gas emissions. That level of experimentation hasn’t been available to planners before now and it will drastically alter the way city planning is done, and cities themselves, over the next several years.

Kornik: Will cities be better places to live in 2030 and beyond?

Hurtado: All the developments we’ve just talked about becoming a reality are going to disrupt cities tremendously… things like autonomous vehicles and flying taxis and digital twins, you name it. But I also think there are so many dynamic things happening right now that you don’t even have to go that far out to envision the changes coming. Look at all the discussions we’re having around people and equity right now; well, urban planning contributed to these inequalities that we’re seeing today in cities. It would be great if we learned from some of those mistakes. So, if I could make one wish it would be that planning would lead to more equitable cities in 2030 and beyond.

There’s this whole idea around what we call “digital twin” cities. Planners can work with real-time data, create a twin of a city and then use that to experiment and try things out before it would ever get implemented.

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